ACC Title There for the Taking

After easily dispatching N.C. State and Maryland this week, Carolina is one game away from a home game against Duke for the regular season ACC Championship.  If the Heels can take care of business against a Florida State team playing without it's best player, they will be in a position that no one thought possible coming into the season...controlling their own destiny for an outright ACC Championship with one game to go.  Duke was supposed to be the unstoppable force in the ACC this year, but the injury to Kyrie Irving combined with Larry Drew's decision to leave UNC completely changed things.

Carolina started very slowly on Wednesday in Raleigh, spotting N.C. State an early lead before coming back to win handily and beat the Wolfpack for the 10th straight time.  This game was a little different than the past few, as the guards led the way on offense for a change.  Kendall Marshall had several timely drives to the basket and finished with 14 points, while Dexter Strickland ended his string of poor offensive performances with 13 points on 5-8 shooting.  John Henson had his standard game of 8 points, 15 rebounds and 6 blocks, and the Heels got good contributions from Zeller and Barnes to get by with a 75-63 win.  N.C. State fell to 4-9 in the ACC with the loss, and calls for Sidney Lowe's job grew louder and louder as the game drew to an end.

On Sunday Maryland had no answer for the Heels inside, as Tyler Zeller had 25 points and 6 rebounds while Henson finished with 10 points, 15 rebounds, and 7 blocks.  Zeller has really been asserting himself down low and in transition on the offensive end lately, while Henson is dominating the game on defense.  Opposing teams are struggling to get anything going inside with the incredibly long Henson patrolling the paint, and he seems to block or alter almost every shot in his vicinity.  Opponents are forced to be constantly concerned with the whereabouts of #31, and you can see it effecting every decision they make around the basket.

Harrison Barnes had another strong game with 21 points and 6 boards, although he's still settling for way too many 3-pointers than I'd like.  He's extremely hard to stop when he's attacking the rim, and I think he's slowly starting to realize it. Other than that Barnes has been great, and he seems to get better every game.  I'm excited to watch this kid improve, and I have a good feeling he's going to win a National Championship before he leaves Chapel Hill.


Kendall Marshall was once again instrumental in running the team, finishing with 4 points, 10 assists, and 3 steals.  He just has an incredible feel for the game, and instinctively does what is needed of him in different situations.  If the team is struggling to score, Marshall gets more aggressive and looks to get to the basket.  If someone is hot, he gets them the ball in positions to succeed.  He knows when to push the tempo and when to slow down, and although he doesn't put up staggering numbers, he has a huge impact on the game.




Dexter Strickland followed up his stellar game against N.C. State with a solid game as a facilitator and defender against the Terps, finishing with 8 assists and only one turnover.  He made all 6 of his shots from the free throw line, but missed all 6 from the field.  Meanwhile Leslie McDonald broke out with 15 points on 6-10 shooting, including 3-5 from downtown, in only 20 minutes versus Dexter's 29.  This game made it obvious that McDonald needs to be the man at the shooting guard position, as Reggie Bullock just can't seem to break out of his horrific slump.  Bullock only saw 7 minutes of action against Maryland, and managed to go 1-8 in that time.  I still believe in Reggie, but he's making it pretty hard for Roy to give him more time.  If McDonald and Strickland switched minutes, this team would be operating at close to an optimal level coming into the final week of the regular season.


Carolina travels to Tallahassee to take on the Seminoles on Wednesday at 7pm, and if they can win that one the match-up with Duke will be for the #1 seed in the ACC Tournament.  Florida State star Chris Singleton is out for the season with a broken foot, so the Seminoles really shouldn't have the fire power to knock off the Heels.  If UNC can get off to a quick lead and take the crowd out of the game early, they should be able to get out of the Civic Center with a victory and set the stage for Saturday night's monster game against Duke.

Winning Ugly

The Carolina-Boston College game last Saturday was another brick-fest, as the Tar Heels shot 37% from the field, 18% from 3, and 50% from the line.  A spectacular UNC defense won yet another game for the 20-6 (10-2 ACC) Heels, as they limited the Eagles to 14-52 shooting (27%) and held on for an extremely ugly 48-46 win.  So far Carolina is squeaking by in the very weak ACC by dominating inside and on defense, and this game was more of the same.  Tyler Zeller was once again UNC's best player on offense, scoring time and time again off his patented baby hook and on run outs in transition.  He runs the court as well as any big man in the country, and Kendall Marshall is great at finding him with the full court pass.  Marshall was a little sloppy in this one, but still played a solid game and finished with 10 points, 7 assists and 4 rebounds.


John Henson once again had a huge impact on the game inside, effectively discouraging BC from even bringing the ball in the paint.  Henson has to be considered for not only ACC defensive player of the year, but also for the national award as well.  He's grabbing double-digit boards in almost every game (12 against BC), blocking over 3 shots a game, and completely demoralizing the opponents' big men in the post.





Harrison Barnes had another off shooting day, but still contributed in every facet of the game with 10 points and 9 rebounds.  Barnes always plays extremely hard, and whenever he decides to start taking it to the basket more, his shooting percentage will begin to climb.  He's staying in the same bad habit of gunning 3-pointers right out of the gate, and if he would just try to get an easy bucket early off a drive or a free throw, I think the 3's would start to fall a little more often.

Dexter Strickland was once again irrelevant on the offensive end of the floor, finishing 0-1 from the floor for 1 point, 2 rebounds, 1 assist, and 2 turnovers in 25 minutes.  He did a great job matched up against Reggie Jackson on defense for a large part of the game, but Carolina needs a scoring punch from the shooting guard position, and Strickland just isn't capable of providing it.  McDonald and Bullock both struggled again from the field in their standard ~15 minutes a game, but I would still love to see them get more time and see what happens.  If the Tar Heels are going to make a run in the tournament, one of those two is going to have to play more and keep the defense honest by knocking down some outside shots.

Carolina travels to Raleigh tonight at 9pm to take on the Wolfpack.  A few weeks ago I was certain UNC would take care of business in this one, but the way we've been playing lately has me a little worried.  N.C. State is 14-12 (4-8 ACC) and has been playing much better of late, getting a win over Clemson and playing Maryland tough in College Park before ultimately falling just short.  Freshman C.J. Leslie is finally starting to play like the guy everyone thought he was going to be, putting up 18 points and 8 rebounds against Maryland and 18 and 10 against Clemson.  He will need another similar performance for the Wolfpack to take down the Heels, and he will need the help of a few teammates as well.  Senior forward Tracy Smith is always consistent and will probably play well, but N.C. State will need to find a 3rd contributor to pull off the upset.  Lorenzo Brown is the leading candidate for that role, as he put up 20 points and 7 assists in the first meeting between these teams.  This is the biggest game of the year for the Pack, and I expect an intense environment and a closely contested battle throughout.

NBA Season Reaches the All-Star Break

The NBA season has reached the All-Star break, which means all the games from here on out will have much more meaning.  The players will step up their intensity as the playoffs get closer, and I'll be tuning in to watch a little more frequently.  Below are the current standings in each conference, with a brief analysis and projection for each team.

Eastern Conference

1. Boston Celtics (40-14)
The Celtics are getting old and are usually a little banged up, but all that matters for these guys is that they are healthy for the playoffs.  I think they lose the #1 seed to Miami by season's end, but Boston still has a great chance to make the finals.

2. Miami Heat (41-15)
Love 'em or hate 'em, the Heat are very exciting to watch.  When you put two of the world's best athletes on the same team, great things are bound to happen every night.  I expect the Heat to enter the playoffs as the 1 seed, but Miami has yet to beat Boston this season so they need to get better if they plan on beating the Celtics in a 7-game series.  If the Heat can get everyone healthy by playoff time, I'll probably be picking them to win the title.

3. Chicago Bulls (38-16)
In just his 3rd season, Derrick Rose might already be the best point guard in the NBA.  Despite injuries to both of his best big men for a large chunk of the season, the Bulls are still playing great and are only 2 games out of first going to the all-star break.  I'd be extremely surprised if they won the East, but if they can get the whole team healthy they've got a chance.


4. Orlando Magic (36-21)
The Magic have struggled to find consistency after the blockbuster trade that brought Hedo Turkoglu, Gilbert Arenas, and Jason Richardson to Orlando.  After an appearance in the finals a few years ago, it sure looks like the Magic don't quite have what it takes to win the Eastern Conference this season.

5. Atlanta Hawks (34-21)
The Hawks aren't playing particularly well but they have a nice cushion over the teams behind them, making it likely that they'll find themselves in the 4/5 matchup in the first round of the playoffs.


6. New York Knicks (28-26)
The Knicks are a hard team to understand.  Just when you think they are playing great and might make a move into the upper echelon of teams in the East, they lose 5 or 6 in a row and drop back in the pack.  If they can add Carmelo without giving up too much, this team has a chance to do some damage.  If the rumors continue to circulate without anything happening, the unpredictable play will likely continue.

7. Philadelphia 76ers (27-29)
After a terrible start to the season, the 76ers have hit their stride.  They have recent wins over the Spurs, Hawks, and Knicks, and look to be a young team on the rise.

8. Indiana Pacers (24-30)
We've known about Danny Granger for a while, but the emergence of Roy Hibbert as a true force in the middle has turned the Pacers into a playoff contender.

9. Charlotte Bobcats (24-32)
After Larry Brown left and Paul Silas took over, the Bobcats have been a much improved team.  Gerald Henderson is starting to break out, and if Stephen Jackson can keep his head in the game, Charlotte could be back in the playoffs for the 2nd year in a row.


10. Milwaukee Bucks (21-34)
The Bucks have had some injuries and haven't played very well this season, but they are still only 3.5 games out of a playoff spot.  They've lost 8 of their last 10, so their not exactly in good form at the moment.  They'll need to pick it up soon if they want to move in to the top 8.

11. Detroit Pistons (21-36)
The Pistons are a big man away from being a decent team.

12. New Jersey Nets (17-40)
The Nets are a work in progress, and they will only be relevant if they can somehow trade for Carmelo Anthony.

13. Washington Wizards (15-39)
The Wizards have lost 10 of their last 12, so you can't exactly say they're improving.  John Wall is going to be a great player in this league, but Washington is still missing too many pieces to compete for a playoff spot.

14. Toronto Raptors (15-41)
The Raptors have lost 17 of their last 19 games, including a stretch of 13 in a row.  Andrea Bargnani is a scoring machine and Jose Calderon has been getting lots of assists, but it hasn't added up to wins.


15. Cleveland Cavaliers (10-46)
The Cavs set an NBA record with 26 losses in a row.  It's safe to say they miss LeBron James.

Western Conference


1. San Antonio Spurs (46-10)
Every year is supposed to be the one where the Spurs are too old and they finally miss the playoffs.  This year is definitely not that year, as they enter the all-star break with the league's best record.  Gregg Popovich is the best coach in the NBA, and the Spurs are the best run franchise.  It's not even really close.


2. Dallas Mavericks (40-16)
The Mavs struggled badly when Dirk Nowitzki was out with an injury, but they enter the break winners of 13 of their last 14 games.  Dallas has been as good as anyone this year, and they are one of a handful of championship contenders.  As of right now, they are my pick to win the West.

3. Los Angeles Lakers (38-19)
The Lakers are having some major problems right now.  Despite that, as long as they have a guy named Kobe Bryant on their team, L.A. will always be on the short list of championship contenders.

4. Oklahoma City Thunder (35-19)
Kevin Durant is once again leading the NBA in scoring, and this year he's running away with it.  Now that Russell Westbrook has raised his game to an all-star level, this team is capable of beating anyone.

5. Portland Trail Blazers (32-24)
The emergence of LaMarcus Aldridge as an elite player has helped Portland overcome the absence of Brandon Roy.  Aldridge has been putting up huge numbers in the Blazers current 6-game win streak, and if he continues to play at this level, this team could put a scare into one of the West's top teams.

6. New Orleans Hornets (33-25)
The Hornets are extremely streaky.  They've had win streaks of 8 and 10 games already this season, but they've currently lost 7 of 8 and are struggling badly.  You never know what you're going to get with this team.


7. Denver Nuggets (32-25) 
Given all the speculation and rumors about possible trades for Carmelo Anthony, it's pretty impressive that the Nuggets have done this well.  If he ends up staying Denver can contend in the West.  If he's traded, you will see the Nuggets slide down the standings and start the rebuilding process.

8. Utah Jazz (31-26)
Things are coming unraveled in Utah.  The Jazz just lost their Hall of Fame coach to retirement, and they've lost 13 of 17 entering the all-star break.  Utah certainly doesn't look like a playoff team right now.

9. Memphis Grizzlies (31-26)
The Grizzlies look to be the beneficiaries of the collapse in Salt Lake City.  While the Jazz have been losing consistently, Memphis has won 12 of their last 15 and looks poised to make the playoffs.  Zach Randolph is dominating the boards, and the Grizzlies are getting balanced contributions from nearly everyone in their recent stretch of wins.

10. Phoenix Suns (27-27)
The brilliance of Steve Nash has kept this team competitive without Amare Stoudamire, and if they were in the East they'd be in the playoffs.  Unfortunately for them, they aren't.

11. Golden State Warriors (26-29)
The Warriors have won 7 of 9 games entering the break.  This team has the talent to be much better than they have been, and it looks like they are finally starting to put it together.  Monte Ellis is among the league leaders in scoring, and if his coaches can convince him to play team ball every night, Golden State could be a playoff team in the very near future.

12. Houston Rockets (26-31)
It's time for the Rockets to plan for life without Yao Ming.  While it looks like Yao's career could be over, Houston has a good core of young talent to build on.  Kyle Lowry is blossoming into a great player and has taken over the point guard position for this team, and Luis Scola is a workhorse down low.  The Rockets need to find another big man to replace Yao, as well as teach SG Kevin Martin how to play a little defense and take better shots.  Houston isn't too far away from being a playoff contender.

13. Los Angeles Clippers (21-35)
The Clippers are a team on the rise.  Blake Griffin has been a human highlight film all season, and he's going to be one of the most exciting players to watch for years to come.  When healthy, the other team in L.A. can be very good.  The Clippers really miss Eric Gordon right now, but the future looks bright for this team.

14. Sacramento Kings (13-40)
DeMarcus Cousins has been a bright spot for this team, but there hasn't been much else to cheer about in Sacramento.  Tyreke Evans is a talented player struggling with a foot issue right now, further adding to the Kings' list of problems.  Shooting guard is a major need for this team.


15. Minnesota Timberwolves (13-43)
The one positive for Minnesota has been Kevin Love, who made the all-star team and is on the verge of breaking the record for most consecutive double-doubles.  Other than that, it's been pretty ugly for the T'Wolves.

2nd Edition of Breaking College Basketball into Tiers

With only a few weeks left in the regular season, I think two teams have separated themselves at the top of college basketball, with a long list of others right behind them.  Trying to rank the teams in order is a much too arduous task, as the parity on this level would result in constant modification.  Instead I've put together my 2nd version of breaking basketball into tiers.

Tier 1 (National Championship Favorites)
Ohio St
Texas

Tier 2 (Final Four Contenders, and With Some Huge Breaks Possible Champions)
Kansas
Duke
UNC
Pittsburgh
Purdue
Georgetown
Villanova
Syracuse

Tier 3 (Final Four is a Stretch, but These Teams are Capable of a Nice Run)
Kentucky
UCONN
Notre Dame
Wisconsin
Washington
Louisville
Missouri
Arizona
Baylor
St. John's
San Diego St.
Xavier
Florida
Temple
Vanderbilt
Illinois
BYU
Kansas St
Tennessee

Tier 4 (Sleeper Teams)
George Mason
Missouri St
Minnesota
Marquette
Cincinnati
Virginia Tech
VCU
Wichita St
Michigan St
West Virginia
Washington St
Georgia
Utah St
Butler
Coastal Carolina
UCLA
Maryland
Belmont
Texas A&M
Old Dominion

Can Somebody Please Hit a 3?

This shooting slump is brutal...which makes it all the more impressive that Carolina is 9-2 in the ACC.  One huge reason wears #31.  John Henson is having an enormous impact on every game.  He's had a double-double in his last four games, and five of his last six, and he did it again on Tuesday against Wake Forest.  He's extremely intimidating on the defensive end, as his ridiculous length and good discipline on pump fakes make him very difficult to shoot over.  He averages three blocks a game and alters many more, and if he gets a little stronger he's going to be scary.  I don't think he's NBA ready quite yet, so I'm very hopeful he'll be at UNC for at least one more season. If he stays he'll have the chance to pack on some muscle and fine-tune his offensive game, and the Heels will have a great chance to win the title in 2012.

Kendall Marshall is a guy that no one ever talks about going pro, and I'm glad because I think he's closer to being ready than Henson is.  I definitely think Marshall will benefit from another year in college, but Kendall has Jason Kidd written all over him, and will be a great point guard for any NBA team to have.  Marshall played another stellar game as the facilitator against Wake, finishing with 8 assists (would have been many more if anyone could make an outside shot) and 2 turnovers.  Kendall Marshall has an incredible feel for the game, and I couldn't be happier that he's finally playing most of the minutes at the point.  Carolina's offense totally falls apart without him on the floor, and I don't think you'll see many meaningful minutes without Marshall for the rest of the season.

Tyler Zeller dominated inside against the Demon Deacons just as Henson did, finishing with 18 points and 9 rebounds.  Wake simply had no answer for the twin towers inside, and the duo continuously got easy looks from point blank range.  Harrison Barnes also had another solid game, although it took him 20 shots to get his 17 points.  He ended up shooting 7-20, including 1-8 from 3-pt range, but it was another huge momentum swinging dunk that stood out as the biggest play of the game.  Barnes threw down his second vicious jam in traffic in as many games, and if he would take the ball to the basket more instead of settling for the outside jumper, he would be a much more efficient player.  Despite his questionable shot selection so far this season, he plays incredibly hard at all times and no one can ever fault his effort.  I believe he's starting to figure out what he does best and what he needs to do for his team to be successful, and there is no doubt he's going to be a great player for both UNC and in the NBA.

Now for the "shooting guard" position.  Everyone keeps saying things about people earning the starting job, but can't someone play their way out of it?  Obviously Reggie Bullock and Leslie McDonald are in a pretty bad slump from 3-point range at the moment, but Strickland has been in a shooting slump for his entire career, and he has no chance of breaking out of it.  He's just a bad shooter period, and really not a very good offensive player.  In his last 3 games, Dexter is 2-12 from the field, including 0-6 from 3-pt range, for a grand total of 9 points.  He's a very good defender, but there is no excuse for a guy with those stats playing 30 minutes at the 2 guard position.  If nothing else, a shooting guard is supposed to knock down shots from the outside, and Strickland just isn't capable of doing this.  Dexter is extremely fast, but he's often out of control and makes very questionable decisions with the ball.  He's played well at times on offense, but a few good games a year is not enough to keep the starting job in my opinion.  He would be much better used as a spark off the bench, using his quickness to take the ball to the rim (and never taking an outside jumper).

I believe both Reggie Bullock and Leslie McDonald can hit the 3's, but both are having trouble coming in cold off the bench for around 15 minutes a game.  Strickland's minutes need to be drastically reduced, with the free minutes being split between Bullock and McDonald until someone finds a rhythm.  Bullock is a very good all-around offensive player, does great work on the boards, and creates havoc in the passing lanes with his length.  McDonald seems to be shooting slightly better (meaning more are going in, Bullock's shot is more consistently on line and it's only a matter of time for him) and is definitely more of an offensive threat than Strickland, but I think when given consistent minutes, you will see Bullock's shots start to fall.  I'd vote for Bullock getting the big minutes, but I'd settle for McDonald getting the nod at shooting guard as well.  McDonald did score 13 points and grabbed 7 boards in only 16 minutes against Wake, even getting two 3-pointers to fall, so either one would be a significant improvement.  Starting either Bullock or McDonald at the 2 is the only way this team can reach its potential, and I hope we make the switch soon so we can get some games under our belt with that lineup before the postseason begins.

Boston College comes to Chapel Hill for a 4pm game on Saturday, and they'll no doubt have revenge on their minds.  Carolina humiliated the Eagles 106-74 on BC's home floor, but I expect it to be a much closer contest this time.  The Eagles are 16-9 on the season and 6-5 in the ACC, so they still have a legitimate shot to make the NCAA tournament with a good finish to the regular season.  I look for a much better performance from Boston College star Reggie Jackson, who comes in averaging 18.5 points a game but scored only 6 on 2-10 shooting in the first game against the Heels.  Forward Joe Trapani had a huge game with 25 points and 15 rebounds in round 1 between these two teams, and the Tar Heels will need to do a much better job getting out on the 3 against him (and getting him off the boards) in round 2.  Senior Cory Raji is a great player as well, so Carolina really needs to be on guard in this one to avoid a disastrous loss at home.  All things considered, I'm expecting a close game for a while, with the Heels pulling away late for the win.

The Win Over Clemson, and Tuesday's Glorified Practice

Saturday's contest between Carolina and Clemson in Littlejohn Coliseum was extremely ugly.  UNC shot 20-53 (38%) from the field, 2-14 (14%) from 3-pt range and 22-32 (69%) from the free throw line.  Clemson was just as bad, shooting 21-61 (34%), 9-29 (31%) from 3-pt range, and 11-17 (65%) from the line.  On top of the horrible shooting percentages, the Tar Heel bench only contributed one point for the entire game.  Luckily for the Heels, John Henson, Harrison Barnes, Kendall Marshall, Tyler Zeller, and a stout defense were just enough to pull this one out.

John Henson dominated the post with his 3rd straight double-double, ending the game with 14 points, 12 rebounds, and 4 blocks.  He also demoralized his counterpart Jerai Grant, who came in averaging 12 points and 7 rebounds, but was held scoreless with only one rebound in 16 minutes.  Grant was visibly frustrated almost immediately in this game, as Henson rejected all three of the shots he put up in the early going.

Harrison Barnes scored 20 points and grabbed 5 boards, but more importantly contributed one of the biggest plays of the game.  Barnes threw down a vicious dunk with the game in the balance, quieting the crowd and stopping any momentum the Tigers had.  Barnes has really flourished since Marshall took over at the point, and I look for him to continue to improve for the remainder of the season.  If Marshall had been playing 35 minutes all season, Harrison might have had a shot at all those lofty preseason projections placed on him.

Kendall Marshall had his highest scoring output of the season with 18 points, most of them coming on clutch free throws down the stretch.  This is extremely encouraging considering his struggles at the line so far this season, but to be fair to him, he hasn't had that many opportunities.  Hopefully his 10-11 performance from the charity stripe wasn't a fluke, because the Heels could really use a late-game closer who can knock those down.

Now for Tuesday's matchup.  Wake Forest is absolutely miserable, coming in with an 8-17 record, 1-9 in the ACC.  If I were Roy Williams, my goal for this game would be to find a shooting guard.  Dexter Strickland is a great defender, but he just isn't much of a threat on the offensive end of the floor (with the exception of a few good games this season).  I would recommend playing Reggie Bullock big minutes, because I know he has all the tools to be a great player on both offense and defense.  Obviously he's been extremely cold in his last few games, and his confidence is clearly shaken a little.  I'd love to see him in the game for 30 minutes, and hopefully get a few easy buckets early to get it going.  Reggie has shown glimpses of brilliance in a few games this season, and I really believe he would break out with some extra playing time.  He just needs to see a few shots go in without the fear of being pulled out for every single mistake or missed shot, and the game against the Demon Deacons is the perfect time to give him that opportunity.  There is absolutely no way that Wake Forest could beat Carolina in Chapel Hill, or probably anywhere else for that matter, so this glorified practice is the ideal time to try a few things to solve the problem at the 2 guard position.  If Bullock can take advantage of this confidence-building occasion, UNC might just have a shot to steal a Championship like Duke did last year.

The Future Is Bright in Chapel Hill

The first half of Wednesday night's game showed how much more athletic the Tar Heels are than the Blue Devils, as they dominated the opening 20 minutes of the game to enter halftime with a 43-29 lead.  UNC built the lead by constantly driving by the slower Duke defenders, resulting in many layups, short shots, and tip ins for Tyler Zeller and John Henson.  Kendall Marshall was getting whatever he wanted on the floor, and the Tar Heel defense was doing a great job of getting out on the 3's and limiting Duke to one shot.  Then came the second half.

Everyone who's ever seen a game in Cameron Indoor Stadium knew that Duke wasn't going away.  Whenever the Blue Devils are trailing in a game at home, several things come together to make sure the game tightens up. The energy and enthusiasm of the crowd inspires the Duke players to play better and induces mistakes from the opponent, while at the same time influences the officials into making awful game-changing calls.  It happens time and time again, and Wednesday night was no different.

Nolan Smith and Seth Curry started the second half on fire, and once they got the crowd back in the game everything changed.  The young Heels finally showed a little bit of panic during Duke's 8-0 run to start the 2nd half, and from that point on they got away from the things that got them the big first half lead.  UNC started giving up way too many open looks from the outside, and also allowed the Blue Devils plenty of second chance opportunities.  UNC foul trouble resulted in more tentative play, mainly from John Henson, who's dominating first half performance was instrumental in building the large halftime lead.  Henson was a near non-factor on both ends of the floor in the second half, and I know his foul trouble had everything to do with it.

Despite the rough start to the half, the Heels were still up 54-47 at the 11:10 mark when Kendall Marshall was taken out of the game for a quick breather.  UNC was absolutely lost with him out of the lineup, as they have been all season, and when he returned with 9:55 remaining it was 54-52 and the crowd was in a frenzy.  Seth Curry caught fire while Marshall was out, scoring all 5 and adding two more once he returned to complete a 7-0 run of his own and tie the game at 54.  The game remained close until the end, but UNC missed some great opportunities to take the lead back.  Both Marshall and Henson missed several shots from in close, and seemingly no one on the Tar Heel roster could make a free throw or an open three.

Even with little going right for the Tar Heels after the intermission, it was 62-60 Duke when the officials decided to make their impact on the game with an absolutely atrocious sequence of terrible calls.  Seth Curry was awarded 3 shots on a very questionable foul call against Reggie Bullock at 62-60, and he made the first two shots.   The zebras made a horrible traveling call on Henson after he rebounded Curry's miss, and followed that with a ridiculous jump ball call when Nolan Smith dove on top of Henson after having the ball knocked away from him.  Despite not even coming close to touching the ball, Smith and the Blue Devils were awarded the ball with the possession arrow, and the officials followed all this with a miserably weak foul call on Bullock against Smith to create the 2nd four point play of the half for Duke.  All of the sudden it was 66-60 with 4:39 to go.  Then with under 4 minutes left after a dunk by Mason Plumlee made it 68-62, UNC immediately inbounded and was on its way to an easy bucket on the other end when the officials awarded Duke a timeout.  There is no way they had time to call a timeout in that spot, and it was just another example of the breaks Duke always seems to get at home.  This was followed by a no call that certainly would have been called a charge if the roles were reversed with Marshall defending Nolan Smith, and he converted an easy layup with Marshall on the ground.  Seconds later Smith missed a layup, but yet another weak foul was called after the miss with 2 minutes remaining and the score at 70-66. That put Smith on the line, and he made one to give them a 5-point lead.  The final straw was a no call at 72-68 when Zeller was hit much harder on a shot attempt with a minute left than Smith had been on any of the previous foul calls, and the game was essentially over after that.

Despite that series of bad calls that shut the door on the Heels, the single most important reason why Duke won this game was the play of Nolan Smith. The senior point guard was determined not to lose his last home game against the Tar Heels, and he completely took this one over to make sure that didn't happen.  Smith was a nice player last year, but this year he has transformed himself into a star.  He improved every aspect of his game in the off-season, and he now has to be considered a first round pick in the NBA draft.  Two years ago I would have said there was no chance that Smith would make his way into the best basketball league in the world, but at this point in his career he really doesn't have any weaknesses.  He can drive the lane with either hand, finish around the rim, knock down shots from everywhere, and will his team to victory.  No one plays harder than Nolan Smith, and his 34 points, combined with a spectacular shooting display from Seth Curry, essentially won the game for Duke. 

Even though they lost the game, there are many positives to take away for the Tar Heels.  After being a mediocre team in jeopardy of missing the NCAA tournament again just a few weeks ago, UNC is now a legitimate final four contender.  Regardless of the result of this game, it is clear that UNC is now the favorite against Duke on a neutral court.  I fully expect the Tar Heels to lay the wood on the Blue Devils in Chapel Hill, and I love our chances in an ACC final matchup in Greensboro.  If Kyrie Irving doesn't return for Duke this season, there is little chance of a National Championship repeat.


I love the way this UNC team is playing right now, and I expect the Heels to earn at least a #3 seed in the NCAA tournament.  Every player on the roster is playing with much more confidence now that Drew is out of the picture, and I look for this team to respond in a big way at Clemson on Saturday.  The next five games should all be wins, and if the Heels take care of business like I think they will, they will arrive in Tallahassee at 12-2 in the league.  If UNC can pull out a victory on the road against Florida State in that one, the rematch against Duke in Chapel Hill will be for at least a share of the ACC regular season title.  If you gave me that scenario before the season started, I certainly would have taken it.  This loss definitely hurts, but considering where we were after a blowout loss at Georgia Tech less than a month ago, the situation now is extremely encouraging.

Addition By Subtraction

When Kendall Marshall was asked about his performance on Sunday against Florida State, he replied "I think I played well, had a few turnovers in there I probably could have avoided but other than that..."  This is why I love this kid so much.  He's an extremely competitive guy, and he wants to make the perfect play every time.  He has the best court vision I've seen in a long time, and as I said earlier in the season, he reminds me of Jason Kidd (Kidd is 2nd on the NBA all-time assist list).  Today was beautiful to watch, as Marshall finished with 9 points on 3-4 shooting, 16 assists, 3 steals, and 3 turnovers in 36 minutes.  He completely controlled the game, just as I thought he would.  He sets up easy shots for his teammates, and he plays great defense.  He has the competitive fire that you just can't teach, and he plays with a great energy and passion for the game.  He also set a UNC record for most assists in an ACC game, and I think he'll make a few more runs at that record before this season ends.  I've been waiting for Kendall to get the opportunity to play 35 minutes all season, and I was glad to see my wishes validated immediately after Drew's departure.

Simply having Marshall on the floor gives more confidence to everyone on our team, as the easier shots he creates results in more success for his teammates, and therefore more energy.  The Tar Heels have shot above 50% in all five games that Marshall has started, and in that time Barnes has transformed from a struggling freshman to the star he was expected to be.  Barnes finished with 17 points and 10 rebounds, John Henson had 16 and 10, Dexter Strickland had 15, 6, and 4 assists, Tyler Zeller had 16 points and 4 rebounds (a little weak), and Justin Knox had 8 points on 3-4 shooting in 16 minutes.  Everyone played well, and having Kendall Marshall with them on the floor improves the chances that they will continue to do just that.  The departure of Drew and the subsequent increase in playing time for Kendall Marshall has just turned Carolina from a decent team into a final 4 contender. I think Texas and Ohio State are the two best teams in the country, but UNC only lost to Texas by 2 on an absolute prayer by Cory Joseph with only a few seconds remaining, so I now truly believe the Tar Heels can beat any team in the country on a given night. 

The change at point guard comes at a perfect time, as Carolina visits Cameron on Wednesday night at 9 to take on Duke.  Just a few weeks ago I figured we would get blown out by 20+ in Durham if things stayed the same, but Drew removing himself made everything much, much different.  While the Blue Devils lost one of their best players in Kyrie Irving, the Tar Heels finally decided to start effectively using one of theirs, and now these two teams appear to be much more evenly matched.  I still think Duke has to be the favorite, but I now know we can compete and be right there with the defending champions in their own building.  While Kendall Marshall is young, he is not afraid, and he most likely will thrive in the intense environment of Cameron Indoor Stadium.  I'm now looking forward to the game at Duke, with the full expectation that we can win the game.

Later Larry

Good riddance!!! I don't know all the details on why Larry Drew II left UNC, but I do know that the Tar Heels are going to be a better team because of this.  It does hurt UNC in that they don't really have a backup point guard now, but if Drew was going to play 20 minutes a game and continually take minutes away from Marshall, we are better off without him.  This isn't how I thought it would happen, but it's the moment I've been waiting for all season.

I can almost guarantee that the Carolina offense is going to get much better as a result of this move, and many people are going to say that "Roy had a plan all year," or something to that effect.  The bottom line is that every good change that has happened to the UNC rotation this season has been forced on Roy Williams, so it really has nothing to do with good coaching moves.  The injury to Justin Watts forced Roy to put an end to the 5-in 5-out strategy that failed time after time, and now Drew has given Williams no choice but to play Marshall for the majority of the game.  The only way Roy can screw this up is if he plays Dexter Strickland for big minutes at the point.  Strickland is not a point guard, and if he takes the 20 point guard minutes that Drew was getting we might even be worse.

I really hope Roy does the obvious and gives all the minutes to Marshall and Bullock.  If he does, the Tar Heels will have a legitimate chance to make a final 4 run, and I will get undeniable proof that what I've been saying all season was right. It's extremely exciting to know that the team's best players should finally get the opportunity to play the minutes they should have been playing all along, and with Drew out of the picture, these young Heels should be emboldened to fulfill their potential.

Thatta Boy Roy!

Now that's what I've been waiting for!!!  I don't want to say I told you so (well maybe just a little bit), but a light bulb finally turned on in the head of Roy Williams on Tuesday night.  He completely scrapped the 5-in 5-out garbage and played much more of the lineups I've been begging for all season long, and it resulted in the best game of the season for the Tar Heels.  He's been getting closer the past few games, but Roy finally put together his best coaching game of the year as UNC crushed Boston College in Chestnut Hill 106-74.

In the last two games, Harrison Barnes has played like the first-team All-American he was projected to be.  While he's clearly found his shooting touch after struggling for most of the season, I believe the players on the floor with him have had a lot to do with that.  Prior to the N.C. State game, Barnes had been settling for contested fade-away jumpers much too often, and just wasn't getting the ball in good spots.  Now that he's getting time on the floor with Kendall Marshall and Reggie Bullock, he's magically getting much better looks, and he's knocking them down.  Marshall just knows where to go with the ball, whether it's switching the side of the court he's on as he crosses half-court to improve the spacing, or recognizing who has the hot hand and making sure to get him the ball in a position where he can be successful.  There's just many subtle things that Marshall does that can't really be taught, and it takes an extremely knowledgeable eye for the game to even recognize some of the things he brings to the table.  Marshall understands the game at an extremely high level, and his mere presence on the floor makes everything work much better.  His importance to the team can't be fully seen by simply looking at the box score, and I can't be more pleased that Roy seems to finally realize who his point guard is.

Most telling stat of the night...UNC with Marshall on the floor +30, without Marshall +2

This game marked the second breakout game for not only Harrison Barnes, but also Reggie Bullock.  Bullock is a tremendous offensive player, a natural scorer, and has to get more time on the court.  Sure he was on fire today, but this would happen much more often if he was given more minutes.  He and Barnes can score in every way possible, and I just love watching these two on the court together with Marshall.  With these 3 playing the majority of the game, UNC can get back to being one of the top scoring teams in the country.  This team is certainly young, but there is simply too much offensive firepower on this squad for the Heels to have struggled as bad as they have on that end of the floor.


The guards had their best night in quite a while, but the bigs inside produced their second dominating performance in a row.  John Henson is full of confidence right now, and he's playing with the swagger he displayed in high school.  His length makes it very difficult for the opposition on both ends of the court, and when he's being aggressive and playing smart he's a dominant player.  Tyler Zeller and Justin Knox also had great games, combining for 26 points on 8-10 shooting and 9 rebounds.  Even Larry Drew II played well tonight, chipping in 9 assists to just one turnover off the bench. 

Now for the other end of the floor.  Dexter Strickland's defense on Boston College star Reggie Jackson was phenomenal.  Jackson was limited to just six points on 2-10 shooting, as Strickland's suffocating D took him completely out of the game.  Dexter never allowed Jackson to get in a rhythm, so even when Strickland came out you could tell that the Eagles' star just wasn't his usual self.  The team as a whole seemed to play with much more energy and effort than normal on the defensive end of the floor, so maybe the piles of snow covering the area had the same effect it has on a young puppy just seeing the white powder for the first time.
Joe Trapani had a monster game for BC with 25 points and 15 rebounds, and Corey Raji chipped in 16 and 6, but everyone else was shut down.  The Tar Heels held the Eagles to 35% shooting and forced 16 turnovers, and once again dominated the glass as they have done all season.  This team seems to be hitting its stride at the perfect time, and the next 3 games will really tell us just how good they are.
 

North Carolina Tar Heels
STARTERS	MIN	FGM-A	3PM-A	FTM-A	OREB	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TO	PF	PTS
Tyler Zeller, F	25	6-7	0-0	6-6	3	6	1	3	1	0	3	18
John Henson, F	26	6-10	0-0	1-1	1	7	1	0	2	2	2	13
Dexter Strickland, G	23	2-7	0-1	0-0	1	3	4	1	0	1	4	4
Harrison Barnes, F	26	9-15	4-7	4-4	3	6	1	0	0	1	1	26
Kendall Marshall, G	20	2-3	1-1	2-3	0	3	6	0	0	2	0	7
BENCH	MIN	FGM-A	3PM-A	FTM-A	OREB	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TO	PF	PTS
Justin Knox, F	17	2-3	0-0	4-6	1	3	1	1	0	0	2	8
Larry Drew II, G	19	0-1	0-0	0-0	0	2	9	0	0	1	2	0
Leslie McDonald, G	15	4-9	1-4	0-0	0	0	1	0	0	0	1	9
Reggie Bullock, G	17	6-9	4-7	0-0	1	4	1	1	1	1	0	16
D Bolick	2	0-0	0-0	0-0	0	1	1	0	0	0	0	0
Van Hatchell, F	2	0-0	0-0	0-0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Stewart Cooper, F	2	0-0	0-0	0-0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
David Dupont, F	2	0-0	0-0	0-0	0	2	0	0	0	1	0	0
Patrick Crouch, G	2	2-3	1-1	0-0	0	1	0	0	0	0	1	5
Dj Johnston, NA	2	0-1	0-0	0-0	0	1	1	0	0	0	0	0
TOTALS		FGM-A	3PM-A	FTM-A	OREB	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TO	PF	PTS
		39-68	11-21	17-20	10	39	27	6	4	9	16	106
		57.4%	52.4%	85.0%
Everyone had a good game in this one, but the minutes for both Marshall and Bullock need to go up in the next few games if they hope to win against Florida State, @ Duke, and @ Clemson.  Obviously there was no need to play anyone big minutes in such a massive blowout, but they are two of the best players on the team and have to be playing more than half the game when it's close.  These last two games are very encouraging, and it's exciting to see things coming together after a frustrating first half of the season.  Florida State visits the Smith Center on Sunday at 2pm, and the Heels can put a 2-game gap between the two teams with a win.  Chris Singleton and Derwin Kitchen are the two main weapons for the Seminoles, and with the way the Heels have allowed open 3-pointers all season long, they need to watch out for Deividas Dulkys as well.

I Bet N.C. State Fans Miss Herb Sendek

N.C. State is not a very good basketball team.  If anyone has a clue over there in Raleigh, Sidney Lowe is soon to be the ex-head coach of the Wolfpack.  The same N.C. State fans that called for Herb Sendek's head are now likely saying something like "why did we fired Sendek?"  It just puts a smile on my face to hear things like this, because I remember how much they hated old Herb back when they were finishing in the top 3 of the ACC and making the NCAA tournament on a regular basis. Oh how things have changed, and the most delusional fan base in the entire world has no one to blame but themselves.  Ever since Sendek was forced out, the Wolfpack has been a bottom dweller in the ACC and a lock to miss The tournament.  N.C. State finds themselves in an all too familiar spot in the bottom 3rd of the league once again, and if they ever hope to compete they've got to find a competent coach now.  They just don't recruit well enough to overcome bad coaching.  The fans will be okay come August though, as they'll probably be the favorite to win the NCAA BCS Championship game again next year.

Enough about State, lets talk about the Tar Heels for a minute.  A few weeks ago everyone thought UNC was on their way to another rough season, and all the "Tar Hole" this, and "Tar Hole" that started coming out of the woodwork. After escaping relatively in tact after a half season worth of coaching mistakes, Roy Williams is slowly starting to figure it all out.  This is great news for UNC, as they have all the talent to make a pretty good NCAA tournament run if they can just get the right players on the court.  It will definitely help if Harrison Barnes starts playing like he did against State.  Barnes was brilliant on Saturday, and finally showed us the game we were all told would we see on a weekly basis before the season started.  Harrison scored 25 points on 10-16 shooting, grabbing 6 rebounds and committing only one turnover.  He's shown glimpses all season of the talent that made him a preseason first-team All-American and the projected #1 NBA draft pick, but he's never really put it all together.  The thought that he could be on the verge of greatness is an exciting feeling.

John Henson was an absolute monster inside on Saturday.  It didn't take him long to completely demoralize the N.C. State bigs, and he continued to throw down dunks and swat away shots for the entire game.  Henson finished with 16 points on 6-10 shooting, 16 rebounds, 7 blocks, and countless instances of intimidation.  When Henson starts brimming with confidence, he can really dominate a game.  What would worry me as an NBA scout is how his confidence is easily shattered, and you never know how he's going to feel on a given night.  He certainly brings tremendous length, rebounding, and shot blocking to the table, and it's fun to watch him when he's feeling good about his game.  Hopefully Henson starts working with a sports psychologist, because if he gets his mental game together he could be a great player for a long time.

Tyler Zeller and Justin Knox were dominant inside as well, leading to an easy Tar Heel victory despite getting next to nothing from either guard position.  There simply wasn't much reason for the guards to attempt many shots, as it was clear the Wolfpack had no answer for anyone in the paint.

State's best player Tracy Smith ultimately fouled out and was part of the group that was annihilated by the Tar Heel giants, while Scott Wood was completely shut down on the perimeter, getting off only 2 shots (he missed both) and scoring 2 points.  I'm almost embarrassed to say I'm not sure who was guarding Wood most of the time, but whoever it was did a great job of denying him the ball and forcing him to drive when he got it.

Up next is a trip to Boston College, a team that's in the top half of the ACC despite losses to two Ivy League schools earlier this season.  Even though they were beaten by both Yale and Harvard on their home court, the Eagles have some very talented players and are definitely a threat to pull the upset on Tuesday night at 9pm.  Reggie Jackson, Corey Raji, and Joe Trapani will all be playing basketball somewhere after they graduate from B.C., with Jackson having a real shot at making the NBA, so the Heels better come to play if they hope to get out of the snow with a win.