Team and Player Rankings Entering the Sweet 16

 

College Basketball Takes Center Stage in February (repost)

Now that we’ve entered February and football season is coming to an end, it’s time for college basketball to once again take center stage. For me there are currently 6 main contenders to cut down the nets in Indianapolis this season, with several others having a small chance if everything were to break right. The majority of them have important games with major conference implications this weekend, but we’ll start with college basketball’s biggest rivalry and my favorite match-up of the year, Carolina vs. Duke. 

UNC-Duke 

Duke is still undefeated in the conference at 10-0, with UNC several games back at 6-3. However, Duke is far less unbeatable than their record suggests, and with 2 head-to-head match-ups left, the Tar Heels still have an outside shot to win the conference title. Both teams sit squarely in the “others with a slight chance to win the National Championship if everything breaks right” category. Duke was fortunate to face several opponents when their best player was out, including Kansas, Louisville, and SMU, but there’s no doubt the Blue Devils have been dominant in ACC play. Duke’s defense has been extremely good, and Carlos Boozer has relentlessly punished opponents with his high IQ game. The supporting cast has been good enough to keep getting wins, and their easy-as-possible ACC schedule will make them pretty difficult to catch in the regular-season race. 

The Tar Heels on the hand have had a much more difficult time, especially on the road, but it seems like they’re finding their footing lately after Hubert Davis finally made an important change to the starting lineup. The UNC staff has seemingly always been slow to figure things out strategically, but they finally stumbled onto a much more effective lineup than the one they’d been starting for most of the year, and the results have been obvious. They made the most important change with Derek Dixon taking over the point guard role from Kyan Evans, and while it seems they still don’t fully understand what their best 5-player lineup is, at least they’re getting closer. Dixon gives the Tar Heels much more size, toughness, and physicality at the point guard position, which has translated into much better defense and the team getting off to faster starts. 

Duke is due for a loss, and this game is a must-win for Carolina to have any chance of getting back in the ACC title race. While it’s obviously a long-shot, a small wager on UNC to win the conference at 100-1 odds seems like a fun way to use a dollar. They’d need to basically win out, which would include a sweep of Duke, but that’s definitely not completely out of the question. The talent is clearly there, but the Tar Heels will have to keep their foot on the gas and avoid the kind of lulls that nearly caused them to blow a 30-point 2nd half lead against Syracuse on Monday. It’s far more likely that they split with the Blue Devils and lose a couple more road games, while Duke mostly cruises to the regular season crown, but as a UNC alum I have to keep the dream alive. 

Illinois-Michigan St 

Illinois is coming off a huge win at Nebraska on Sunday, and they followed that up with a massive blowout of Northwestern on Wednesday. They’re currently tied for the Big Ten lead, while Michigan State is now 2 games back after losing consecutive games to Michigan and Minnesota. The Breslin Center is one of the toughest road environments in college basketball, but Michigan handled it well while holding on to win, and the Illini will need to match that effort to keep pace with the Wolverines. Illinois has shown they’re more than capable of winning in a hostile environment, and they’re easily the far more talented offensive team in this match-up. Michigan State plays with great toughness and physicality, but they can struggle offensively at times, and they’ll need a better-than-average shooting day to knock off the Illini. 

UCONN-St. John’s 

UCONN is undefeated in Big East play at 12-0, while St. John’s is 2nd at 10-1. 1st place will be on the line, and although this game will be played in Madison Square Garden, I still expect UCONN to win and take full control of the conference race. UCONN has much more experience playing together and they’re the far better offensive team, and I look for the Huskies to make a statement and fully assert themselves as legitimate National Championship contenders. 

Florida-Texas A&M 

Texas A&M is the surprise co-leader of the SEC at 7-2, but their loss Wednesday night at Alabama means this match-up with Florida is now for sole position of 1st place in the conference. The Aggies will be returning home where they’re still undefeated in league play, but Florida is the much bigger and more talented team, and the Gators are coming off a massive blowout win over the same Alabama team that just beat Texas A&M. Texas A&M is a tough team that plays extremely hard, but I fully expect Florida to win this one on the road and take the lead in the conference title chase. No matter who comes out on top in this match-up, a bunch of teams will still be lurking closely behind in the wide-open SEC. 

Tennessee-Kentucky 

2 of those teams trailing closely behind the conference leaders are Tennessee and Kentucky, and they’ll square off for the 2nd time this season in Lexington on Saturday night. Similar to the Illinois-Michigan State match-up, Tennessee comes in as the tougher more physical team, while Kentucky is more talented offensively and full of potential future NBA players. Kentucky won the 1st match-up in Knoxville by 2 points just 3 weeks ago, and while I’m sure the Vols will be hungry for revenge, Kentucky seems to be playing better now than they were then. The Wildcats played a really good game in a big win at Arkansas, then followed that up with an easy win over Oklahoma, and while I still think Florida is the favorite to win the SEC title, there’s some substantial value on a small wager on Kentucky to win it at 25-1 odds. They’re only a game behind Florida with 2 head-to-head match-ups remaining, but they’ll likely need to win this one if they hope to have a chance to win the league. 

Houston-BYU 

I still see Houston as the favorite to win not only the Big 12 title, but also the National Championship. They don’t necessarily have to win this game to do either, but I still think they’ll go into Provo and knock off BYU. Houston is currently 3-1 to win the conference and 11-1 to win it all, and I think the odds we’ll only get worse from here. Houston’s defense is once again extremely dominant, but they’ve got far more offensive firepower than usual this season. Freshman Kingston Flemings is shooting up draft boards and forcing himself into the conversation as one of the top picks in the 2026 NBA Draft, and I look for he and the Cougars defense to cause problems for BYU and their top pro prospect, AJ Dybantsa. 

Battle to be the #1 NBA Draft Pick 

As many as 6 players are still in the mix for #1 in my opinion, but right now AJ Dybantsa is not one of them. If Darryn Peterson wasn’t having injury issues he would be the favorite, but my concerns grow each time he sits out, and lately he’s been spending more time on the bench than on the court. 

I’m a little biased towards Caleb Wilson considering how many times I’ve watched him play, but his absurd length and athleticism paired with his extreme intensity and effort on both ends of the floor gives him arguably the highest ceiling of the group overall. Keaton Wagler’s size, length, and skill at the point guard position makes him tough to pass over as well, and his recent clutch play and offensive outbursts have him looking like an NBA star for years to come. 

Kingston Flemings and Darius Acuff of Arkansas are 2 more elite point guards who can certainly make a claim to the #1 pick, while Cameron Boozer at Duke might be the most ready to step and and play right away. Boozer is an extremely smart basketball player and reminds me of Domantas Sabonis. However, he can struggle against elite size and length, which he’ll face most every night at the next level, so I probably won’t really have him in the mix for #1 on my draft board. No matter who ends up going 1st, it’s a great year to have a top-10 pick in the NBA Draft, and an extremely deep pool of talented players to choose from overall.

Updated Player and Team Rankings

 

College Basketball Stories for the Week Ahead, with Team and Player Rankings

One of the best parts of the college basketball season gets underway this week, kicking off with the Champions Classic in Madison Square Garden tonight. The early season tournaments give us the opportunity to see many of the nation’s best teams play each other with championships on the line, and while the Champions Classic is just a showcase of 4 storied programs and not an actual tournament, we’ll give it some attention since it marks the start of some potentially juicy matchups.

While this showcase has lost a little of its luster with the announcement that Kansas star freshman Darryn Peterson will miss tonight’s game against Duke, pretty much assuring that Duke will beat Kansas handily, Kentucky and Michigan State should provide enough entertainment to make up for it. Kentucky is the far more talented team, but Michigan State’s toughness and rebounding dominance gives them a chance to compete.

Wednesday will provide us with an even better opportunity to see some of the top teams square off, with Arizona playing at UCONN and Alabama traveling to Illinois. UCONN appears to be back in championship form on both ends of the floor, and while I think Arizona has a chance to throw their name into the championship conversation as well, they probably won’t be as consistent from game to game. UCONN simply has more weapons and a much better defense, and I expect them to handle their business at home. If you like free money, put some down at +115 odds for the Huskies to win the Big East conference this year.

Alabama is coming off a troubling loss at home to Purdue, where they were dominated physically and exposed defensively, and their schedule isn’t doing them any favors by following that up with a trip to Illinois. While Purdue is currently ranked #1 in the AP poll, I see Illinois as a better team than Purdue, especially when they’re at full strength. While Illinois may still be without star center Tomislav Ivisic, they should still have enough to do exactly what Purdue did and hand Alabama their 2nd loss in a row.

Tournament season truly kicks off on Thursday with the Baha Mar Championship in the Bahamas, featuring the aforementioned Purdue Boilermakers along with Memphis, Texas Tech, and Wake Forest. This tournament should be extremely interesting, with 3 of the 4 teams having a reasonable chance to win the title. Memphis looks to be the odd team out, and Purdue should have no trouble reaching the championship game against the winner of Texas Tech and Wake Forest.

Purdue will once again have a size and strength advantage inside, but Texas Tech has the best post player in JT Toppin, while Wake Forest is coming off a narrow one-point overtime loss at Michigan and has the talent and athleticism to hang with anyone. Whichever team gets the most fans to make the trip might have the edge, but all 3 have already played extremely well in hostile environments so anything could happen in this tournament.

Gonzaga moves into the top spot

After several extremely impressive performances early this season, Gonzaga has now moved into the top spot in my poll. The Bulldogs are overdue to win a National Championship, and despite currently being ranked #13 in the AP poll, this Gonzaga team has the depth, talent, and versatility to deliver Coach Mark Few the title he deserves. At +2500 this is likely to be the best price we’ll be able to get on Gonzaga cutting down the nets in Indianapolis, because after their demolition of a pretty good Creighton team last week, this team might flirt with an undefeated regular season if they get to conference play without a loss. A wager on the Bulldogs to make the Final 4 at +500 seems like a great bet as well.

While going undefeated is extremely rare and always unlikely, there’s another much more under-the-radar team I think has a legitimate chance to do it as well. The Saint Louis Billikens are unranked and relatively unknown, but they’re extremely quick, athletic, and skilled, and they’re led by a coach who is soon to be one of the biggest names in college basketball.

Josh Schertz is a name that not many people probably recognize, but I have a feeling this will be the last season where that’ll be the case. I first noticed him while living in Charlotte, North Carolina and attending a few games at Queens University, where Schertz brought his Lincoln Memorial team to town every year and developed an incredible rivalry with Queens. His teams were always extremely tough and prepared, and he carried that success to Indiana State before taking the job at Saint Louis. While I currently have Saint Louis ranked #6 in my poll, they have an extremely weak schedule and should be favored in every game they play. Betting them at +400 to win the A10 conference seems like an absolute lock.

 

 

 

"Bet the House" Segment with Team and Player Rankings

 Alabama -3.5 over Purdue

The “Bet the House” segment barely saved itself last weekend, squeaking by with the narrowest of victories when Arkansas covered the 3.5 point spread against Michigan State by just a half point. While I want to focus mainly on Alabama and Purdue here, we have to talk about Arkansas for a minute.

The Razorbacks are one of the most talented teams in the country, but their performance against Michigan State was borderline pathetic, due more to the coaching than anything the players did. There’s no doubt that John Calipari is one of the greatest recruiters of all time, but I’m just gonna come out and say it, he’s below average as a coach.

Year after year, Coach Calipari has a really hard time identifying who his best players are, and who should be on the floor. What he’s doing with Maleek Thomas coming off the bench is reminding me of how he handled Devin Booker, forcing his team to start the game without one of its best players and ensuring that they don’t have their best lineup on the floor. While this is only one of the disastrous lineup mistakes Calipari is making early this season, his problems go beyond personnel decisions.

He consistently struggles to make adjustments on the fly, and his team was clearly unprepared for the kind of physicality and rebounding effort Michigan State brought to the game. While Coach Tom Izzo’s teams are always among the best rebounding teams in the country, there’s really no excuse for how badly Arkansas got dominated on the glass. The Razorbacks have a long way to go to reach their enormous potential, and until Coach Calipari makes some major changes, they’ll continue to be more of a solid top-20 team than the championship contender we were hoping to see.

Let’s now move on from my disappointment in Arkansas and Coach Calipari to a much more impressive SEC team, the Alabama Crimson Tide. The Alabama guards were fantastic in a gritty road win over St. John’s, consistently pushing the pace and keeping the St. John’s defense on its heels. Their quickness and ability to score from anywhere makes them extremely difficult to defend, and this could be a major problem for a Purdue team that lacks elite speed and athleticism.

While Purdue is a smart, veteran squad and I understand why they’ve started the season ranked so highly, they’re still badly overrated even after dropping from #1 to #2 this week. In their last game they struggled to pull away from an Oakland team that isn’t very good, and although they were without one of their better players Trey Kaufman-Renn, their limitations were on full display. While Kaufman-Renn is expected to return tonight, he likely won’t be at his best, and even if he is I don’t think it will matter. Alabama is just too fast and too athletic, and after losing to Purdue the last 2 seasons, I think the Crimson Tide will be eager to turn the tables and put a beatdown on the Boilermakers.

College Basketball: Big-Picture View from Week 1

We’re obviously taking some chances here with bold predictions early in the season based on very little information, but one of the main objectives of this work is to see the big picture as early as possible. There will naturally be lots of big changes to the rankings in the first few weeks of the season as we accumulate more information and get a better feel for all the teams, but the entire landscape should be taking a more solid form by the time December rolls around.

A few new teams will be added to the “Championship Contenders” list in the next edition, and my apologies go out to St. Johns, who I’ve now removed from the overrated list after getting another look at them. They’re extremely tough and physical, and while they might not be the 5th best team in the country, they’re probably not as far away from that ranking as I originally thought. We’ll take a more in-depth look at a few other teams in the next article, but for now we’ll highlight a few season-long wagers worth considering based on what we’ve seen so far.

 

Worth a Wager

Illinois (+700) to win the Big Ten

Arizona (+800) to win the Big 12

Arkansas (+475) to win the SEC and (+2000) to win the National Championship

Longshots (probably won’t do it, but the odds are enticing!)

Baylor (+2500) to win the Big 12

Washington (+4000) to win the Big Ten

Wake Forest (+10000) to win the ACC

 

I like to sprinkle in a few of these season-long investments as the season unfolds, and these are the ones that seem to be offering the best value at this point. We’ll now stick our neck out again with another “Bet the House” segment, but this time we’re gonna back a team we have much more confidence in, the #1 team in our poll, the Arkansas Razorbacks.

 

Bet the House

Arkansas +3.5 @ Michigan St

The first edition of “Bet the House” didn’t go too well, and if this one doesn’t succeed I’ll be scrapping this segment and quitting betting on individual games altogether. Bethune-Cookman fell flat after an impressive first game, and Miami really stepped it up from their lackluster opening performance, showing once again how dangerous it is to assume that teams will look even remotely similar from game to game. Miami was extremely impressive defensively while putting up over 100 points, while Bethune-Cookman looked too small, a step slow, and emotionally-drained from their overtime loss a few days ago. That one was ugly.

We may have gotten a little carried away backing a WAY under-the-radar team too soon, so this time we’ll put our biggest wager on what we believe to be the best team in college basketball. With Arkansas holding down the top spot in our poll, and Michigan State failing to crack the top 32, I’m going with the Razorbacks to go into a tough environment and knock off the Spartans.

Typically the Breslin Center in East Lansing is one of the most difficult places to play, especially for a team led by freshmen, but this Arkansas squad is different. They’re just too talented and too deep to lose this game, and as 3.5-point underdogs, this one feels like an absolute lock.

1st "Bet the House" Segment, with Updated Team and Player Rankings

Bet the House

Bethune-Cookman +16.5 @ Miami

Bethune-Cookman is far from a household name in college basketball, but their relative obscurity is exactly why the Wildcats will be one of the biggest surprises this season. They’re coming off a tough overtime loss on the road at Auburn, but Auburn is a very good team, and Bethune-Cookman gave them all they could handle in a tough environment and easily could’ve won the game.

While Auburn has been a top program for years with more than their fair share of elite players, Bethune-Cookman might have had the best player on the floor. Arterio Morris, a former 5-star recruit whose college career hasn’t quite gone to plan, actually came off the bench and nearly led his team to victory. Morris started his college career at Texas, then transferred to Kansas, where he was dismissed from the team before he even played a game after he was charged with sexual assault in September of 2023. Those charges were dropped around 6 months later, and after going the JUCO route for a year, Morris is back in Division I at Bethune-Cookman.

While Arterio Morris represents a level of talent that Bethune-Cookman isn’t used to having, his supporting cast is actually a lot better than anyone would think. The Wildcats are quick and athletic and play with great intensity and effort. They aren’t the biggest team, but they make up for it in toughness, physicality, and aggression on both ends of the floor.

Their opponent, the Miami Hurricanes, are used to having talent, but this year’s team is a complete overhaul from last season. Their roster is made up of all new players, and they’re led by a 1st year coach as well. It will likely take a while for Miami to gel together, and after watching both teams in their first games, this spread looks way too high. Bethune-Cookman has a great chance to not only cover this spread, but potentially even pull off the upset on the road. Keep an eye on Bethune-Cookman, they will likely be one of the teams to bet on this season.