Western Conference
Northwest Division (Last Years Record)
Gonna be a tight finish
1. Utah Jazz (53-29)
The Jazz were a very good team last year, and they made a few huge moves in the offseason that I think will ultimately make them better. They traded away Carlos Boozer, and signed Al Jefferson to replace him. The swap of Boozer for Jefferson won't have a huge impact on the Jazz in my opinion, but signing SG and defensive stopper Raja Bell and drafting SF Gordan Hayward makes Utah a much deeper team. If the Jazz can get a healthy Mehmet Okur and Andrei Kirilenko for most of the season, this team has a chance to be very good. PG Deron Williams is arguably the best point guard in the NBA, and Paul Milsap is a rebounding beast and very underrated at the PF spot. I think they win a tight race in the Northwest division.
Kevin Durant has quickly become one of the best players in the NBA, and the Blazers have to be kicking themselves for taking an 18-year old who looked like he was 40 with a history of injuries ahead of him. Durant was dominant in this year's FIBA World Championships, and he looks poised to take this team to know heights this season. The Thunder gave the Lakers all they could handle in the first round of the playoffs last year, and with last year's nucleus returning plus a few others, Oklahoma City shove improve on its #8 seed from last year. The Thunder drafted center Cole Aldrich with their top pick, and he could step in and play major minutes right away. Jeff Green, Russell Westbrook, James Harden, Thabo Sefolosha, and Nenad Krstic all return as major contributors from last season, and I expect a larger role for PG Eric Maynor out of VCU as well. I loved Maynor's game in college, and I think it will translate well at the next level.
3. Denver Nuggets (53-29)
The future of the Denver Nuggets is up in the air right now. The Nuggets entered the 2010 playoffs as the #4 seed, and for now return all the major pieces from that team (+ Al Harrington). However, rumors have been floating around for quite awhile about a possible trade for star Carmelo Anthony, but nothing has happened as of yet. The Nuggets are 2-deep at every position, and if Anthony sticks around all season the Nuggets could finish even higher. He's been very adamant about not signing an extension though, and Denver doesn't want to lose him to free agency next year without getting anything in return (think the Cavs with LeBron or the Raptors with Bosh), so it's very possible he could be traded before the end of the year. Even without Anthony this team could make the playoffs, but there's no question they are a much better team with him in the lineup. On a side note, I'm hoping this is the year that former Tar Heel Ty Lawson takes over in a starring role at the point.
4. Portland Trail Blazers (50-32)
The Trail Blazers return everyone from a team that earned the #6 seed in last year's playoffs, plus the additions of Wesley Matthews from Utah and SF Luke Babbitt from the draft. This team is very talented, but I just have a feeling that they aren't as mentally tough as the other top teams in this division and I couldn't pick everyone to finish first. If center Greg Oden stays healthy it will give them a major boost in the middle, but I'm pretty sure Portland is used to playing without him and really looks at his presence as an added bonus when he's in there. At this point most people expect Oden to be injured for most of the season, and I unfortunately think this could be the case throughout his career. All-star Brandon Roy (also should be a Bobcat, but the geniuses in the front office decided to go with Adam Morrison, unbelievable) and company will be good, but the West is tough and Portland will have to fight hard for a high finish in this brutal division.
5. Minnesota Timberwolves (15-67)
Minnesota was awful last year, but I expect them to be much improved this season. Unfortunately for the T'Wolves, even a dramatic improvement will most likely still result in a last place finish in this division. PF Kevin Love is a beast and played great for Team USA this year, and I expect him to make the all-star team this year. Michael Beasley joins him in the front court, and if he can consistently play like he's capable this team can really go places. Minnesota acquired a very underrated PG Luke Ridnour in the offseason, and together with Martell Webster, Corey Brewer, and top draft selection Wesley Johnson, the Timberwolves should win much more than 15 games this year.
Southwest Division
Nothing would really surprise me in this division
1. Dallas Mavericks (55-27)
The Mavericks finished last year's regular season as the #2 seed, and they return all their major pieces plus a player I valued very highly in this year's draft, Dominique Jones out of South Florida. Perennial all-star Dirk Nowitzki leads a group including Caron Butler, Jason Terry, Shawn Marion, J.J. Barea, Brendan Haywood, Tyson Chandler, and Rodrigue Beaubois that should make a run at dethroning the Lakers from their top spot.
2. San Antonio Spurs (50-32)
I seriously thought about picking the Spurs to finish 4th in the division, but after lots of thought I changed my mind. I wanted to go out on a limb with one of my picks, but I eventually decided that dropping the Spurs below a team like the Grizzlies just wasn't something I could do. The Spurs have been so good for so long, and one year you would think they might drop back, but they're healthy right now and have played well in the preseason. My original reason for putting them further down in this division was the expectation of injuries, but I just don't really think it's right to predict that for a good bunch of guys that I'd like to cheer for. Tim Duncan is one of the most likable and well-respected players the NBA has ever seen, and I would love to see him have another great season complete with a deep playoff run. Manu Ginobili plays the game with tremendous heart and passion every night, which is sadly something I can't say for many of the players in the NBA. Tony Parker is a fearless point guard who can do it all. This team is definitely getting old and the possibility of injuries is pretty good, but Gregg Popovich is probably the best coach in the NBA so I wouldn't be shocked at all to see them overcome any adversity and still finish strong. The Western Conference is loaded with good teams this year, especially this division, so it won't be easy. 4 of the Spurs' 5 projected starters have been in the league for 8+ years, which is definitely a double-edged sword. These guys know each others' games better than anyone and could play together in their sleep, but the Spurs could have some trouble guarding the multitude of quicker, younger teams they will face. I'm counting on their ability to play great TEAM defense to get the job done. Projected starter DeJuan Blair is a beast down low, and George Hill seems poised for a breakout season. Rookie SG James Anderson is a great fit for this team, and I expect him to provide some outside shooting along with Matt Bonner. Big things are also expected from forward Tiago Splitter from Brazil, so it wouldn't shock me it all if this team is still great and easily cruises into the playoffs yet again.
3. New Orleans Hornets (37-45)
The Hornets had a pretty busy off-season. Gone is the star fill in at the point last year, Darren Collison, but the Hornets welcome SF Trevor Ariza, combo guard Jerryd Bayless, SG Marco Belinelli, SG Willie Green and SF Joe Alexander. New Orleans have a healthy Chris Paul, and he is joined by C Emeka Okafor, SF Peja Stojakovic, and last year's other breakout star in SG Marcus Thornton. The Hornets also drafted a player I was very high on, SF Quincy Pondexter from Washington, who I expect will contribute right away. Center Pops Mensah-Bonsu had a surprisingly huge game earlier this week, so maybe he has something more to offer this season.
4. Memphis Grizzlies (40-42)
The Grizzlies have a nice nucleus of young talent, and for what it's worth have gone 7-0 in the preseason up to this point. Zach Randolph was a beast last year, and Memphis must expect a lot from SF Rudy Gay, as they gave him a max contract in the off-season. They also return O.J. Mayo, Mike Conley, Marc Gasol, Darrell Arthur, Sam Young, and Hasheem Thabeet from last year, and they acquired defensive animal Tony Allen this summer from Boston. The Grizzlies also drafted well in Xavier Henry from Kansas, who I expect will play immediately, and Greivis Vasquez from Maryland. This team has a lot of potential, and if they can put it all together they could have a shot at the playoffs.
5. Houston Rockets (42-40)This Rockets team should be pretty solid as well, but this is a brutal division and someone has to finish last. Houston lost Trevor Ariza after just a year to the Hornets, but it returns most everyone else from a team that finished in 9th place last year. PF Luis Scola is an extremely underrated player in this league, and I look for a big season out of him. The Rockets also return PG Aaron Brooks, SG Kevin Martin, and a host of other role players. Center Yao Ming is the big question mark. He is dominant when he plays, but unfortunately for him and the Rockets, he has spent a lot of time on the pine due to injuries in the past 4 years. His health will determine if this team is in the running for a playoff spot, and judging from the past few years, that's a pretty shaky position to be in.
It gets pretty wide open after the Lakers
1. Los Angeles Lakers (57-25)
2-time defending champs. Last time I checked they still have Kobe Bryant and Pau Gasol, and that's enough to win this division. Everyone else is back minus Jordan Farmar (they picked up Steve Blake to replace him), and the Lakers are eager to prove they are still the favorites despite all the players that migrated south to Miami in the off-season. Kobe Bryant is still the most competitive guy in the league, and he would love nothing more than to add another 3-peat to his resume and equal Michael Jordan with 6 championships.
2. Los Angeles Clippers (29-53)
The Clippers have a lot of talent, but not much playoff experience. They have what will probably be the rookie of the year, Blake Griffin (he didn't play last year so he's still eligible), who I expect to be a dominant inside presence right off the bat. Chris Kaman is an all-star calibur center, and SG Eric Gordon looks poised for a breakout season after a great stint with Team USA. If the Clippers can get consistent effort from veteran PG Baron Davis, this team has the potential to be much better than last year. Health and depth will likely be major issues for this team.
3. Golden State Warriors (26-56)
The Warriors have a very strong starting lineup, but they lack depth. There is no question this team will be great offensively, but they have to start playing defense or nothing is going to change. Stephen Curry is going to be a great player in this league for years, as he has the skills and basketball I.Q. to do just about anything on the court. I can't say as much for his backcourt mate Monte Ellis, who always seems more concerned with getting his shots and points than helping his team win. The Warriors acquired David Lee, an all-star double-double guy from the Knicks, to play down low with center Andris Biedrins. Golden State is going to need some solid contributions from the Wright brothers (Dorell and Brandan, and they're not really brothers) and a few other guys off the bench if they hope to make a run at the playoffs. I have a feeling that as long as Monte Ellis is a member of this team, the playoffs will not be in their future. If I were the GM, I'd be looking to trade him before everyone else figures out what a cancer he is to any team.
4. Phoenix Suns (54-28)
Phoenix looks to have one of the bigger drop-offs in the league this year after the departure of superstar Amare Stoudamire. They still have all-star PG Steve Nash, but without Stoudemire, Nash is much less dangerous. The duo mastered the pick and roll together, and for some reason I'm thinking Robin Lopez or anyone else on the roster won't be able to be nearly as effective. The Suns also return Jason Richardson, Grant Hill, Channing Frye, Jared Dudley and Goran Dragic, and welcome new additions Hedo Turkoglu, Hakim Warrick, and Josh Childress. However, the loss of Stoudemire is devastating and leaves a giant void in the middle, and I will be shocked if the Suns can find a way to make the playoffs.
5. Sacramento Kings (25-57)
This team is a very young and talented group. I wanted to pick them to finish higher, but they are so inexperienced I just couldn't do it. The Kings have one of the best young point guards in the league to build around in Tyreke Evans, and they drafted rebounding monster DeMarcus Cousins from Kentucky with the 5th pick this year. Sacramento also returns the Israeli phenom Omri Casspi, and they acquired center Sam Dalembert this summer. There are some solid pieces here, but the Kings are going to need several other role players to make big impacts if they want to make any noise in the West this year. They are probably a year or two away.
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