I think I saw a light bulb turn on in Roy Williams' head after the game against William & Mary. When looking at the score sheet at the post-game press conference, he noticed that Kendall Marshall had 8 assists and 0 turnovers. I just got the feeling from hearing him talk that he might have finally figured out what he has to do for the Tar Heels to perform up to their #9 preseason ranking. Larry Drew II had 6 assists and 3 turnovers, but it is clear that this team just operates better with Marshall on the floor. Here's a pretty clear stat...
UNC with Drew on the Court, 1st half : +3, game: +10
UNC with Marshall on the Court, 1st half: +19, game: +20
It has been very painful having to constantly bash a man who saved the UNC program when it was on the verge of crumbling, but Roy has been extremely stubborn and slow to adapt this year and it has been extremely frustrating. It has been clear since game one that Marshall is a better player than Drew, and I think the William & Mary game really made this even more obvious. Williams also gave Reggie Bullock his most minutes of the season with 20, and Bullock delivered with 11 points, 5 rebounds, and 3 assists. Leslie McDonald got hot again, scoring 14 points in only 15 minutes. This game really illustrated everything I've been saying all season, to the point that I don't think Roy will be able to ignore it.
Now for Dexter Strickland. He has been fantastic two games in a row, once again leading the team in scoring with 19 on 8-12 shooting against William & Mary. I still get nervous when Dexter dribbles the ball, but he has used his lightning speed to get out in transition for uncontested layups, and he even showed a deadly long-range jumper from the right corner near the end of the game against the Tribe. I hope this was more than just a fluke, because if Strickland can back up his speed with a consistent outside shot, he will become a much more dangerous player. He's always been a great defender, but it seems like his offense is finally coming around.
I just get the feeling that this team is on the verge of discovering itself, and it comes just in time, as UNC opens their ACC season on January 8th at Virginia. Zeller and Henson have been solid all year (although their position defense still needs work), and it finally looks like they have a few teammates and a coach that might help them out. UNC plays Rutgers at 9pm tonight in Madison Square Garden, and I'm excited to see if Marshall starts to take over for Drew. I know Roy will never bench Larry Drew II for as long as I want him to, but I'll settle on him switching their minutes. I don't know what more Roy needs to see to make the necessary changes, and I'm desperately hoping he starts tonight.
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With respect to the everlasting Drew vs Marshall argument, I think the assist rate and turnover rate stats by Ken Pomeroy are the most telling. Drew's assist rate is 24.4 vs Marshall's 44.2, while the turnover rates are similar around 30. On another note, I wouldn't mind seeing a lot more of Leslie McDonald. McDonald's offensive rating is 2nd only to Zeller at the moment. Can't wait to see tonight's game, but I'm not expecting to see Marshall start over Drew.
http://kenpom.com/team.php?team=North%20Carolina
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