This year's tournament feels like it's as wide open as it's been in many years, but I'll be a little surprised if someone other than Kansas, Michigan State, or North Carolina emerges as National Champion. Plenty of other teams have a shot at it, but these three have set themselves apart as the favorites.
2016
NCAA Tournament Teams
Kansas
Kansas
is extremely deep and talented, boasting one of the top two rosters
in the nation. They have scoring from lots of different places, but
their bigs struggle to consistently put the ball in the basket. I
think Bill Self has made a big mistake not getting more playing time
for his freshman big men Carlton Bragg and Cheick Diallo. Both have
a shot to be NBA All-Stars at some point, and if they don't win the
championship the Jayhawks can point to this error as the reason why.
Self obviously does a lot right as a coach, but this one could cost
him big.
Senior
Perry Ellis is having a spectacular year, and he's got a bunch of
talented guards around him to make a deep run. The Jayhawks haven't
always been consistent this season, but they won the Big 12 for the
12th consecutive year and seem to be peaking at the right
time. They've got a ton of experience, and they're definitely one of
the favorites to win this year's National Championship.
Michigan St.
This
kinda feels like a Michigan State year. Denzel Valentine is one of
the top two players in college basketball and my vote for Player of
the Year. This team would be nothing without him, but with him they
have a great chance to cut down the nets. Valentine knows exactly
what his team needs at all times, and he's nearly always able to
deliver.
Tom
Izzo has this team playing harder than anyone. They're an extremely
competitive team that gives all-out effort at all times, and in a
year where there isn't a clear favorite this might just be the
difference. Shooting guard Bryn Forbes has been on fire this season,
and senior Matt Costello is playing out of his mind down low. The
Spartans are all over the place, seemingly getting to every loose
ball. They have a tremendous will that comes directly from their
Hall of Fame coach, and he seems to know the exact buttons to press
to get his teams playing their best in the tournament. While not the
most talented team, Michigan State is one of the favorites to win it
all.
UNC
The
Tar Heels are one of the deepest and most talented teams in the
nation, but they've been inconsistent for much of the year. It's
hard to believe they won a tough ACC regular season and tournament
championship while being so up and down, but that just speaks to
their immense talent and well-rounded offensive attack.
Brice
Johnson has played great all season, and he's one of the best post
players at this level. Feeding him consistently has to be a
priority, and if everything goes right for UNC they could be crowned
national champion in a few weeks.
As
a Carolina alum and huge fan I'm usually more critical of the Heels
than anyone else, mainly because I see and scrutinize them nearly
every game. They've got scorers at every position, shooters on the
outside, back to the basket big men inside, and the size to match up
with any team at any time.
However,
lineup mistakes are made constantly and often cost the Heels games
they should have won. This can't happen anymore if UNC is going to
win 6 games in a row against NCAA tournament teams, and at this point
I just don't have the confidence that Roy Williams is capable of
making the correct adjustments at the right times.
Carolina
could win the whole thing, or get knocked out in round 3. You never
know what you're gonna get with this team, but they do appear to be
peaking at the right time.
Oregon
Despite
the loss of star player and tournament hero from the past few years
Joseph Young, Oregon got even better and won the Pac-12 regular
season title this season. The Ducks are young and athletic with good
scoring options at all positions. They've got great shooters on the
perimeter, several guys with the ability to put the ball on the floor
and get to the rim, along with an elite rim defender and finisher in
Chris Boucher inside.
With
so many options the Ducks can have a different player step up on any
given night, giving them more consistency than most teams this
season. Oregon is definitely capable of a deep run, but vulnerable
against teams with a powerful big man. Although he's a great shot
blocker, Boucher is very thin and could have trouble against teams
with size and strength inside. If he gets in foul trouble the Ducks
get much smaller and the middle opens up big time.
Kentucky
Kentucky
has improved as much as any team since the start of the season, and
they boast what is probably the country's best backcourt. Tyler Ulis
and Jamal Murray have been incredible for the Wildcats all season,
but unfortunately they haven't been able to get consistent help.
These two players are talented enough to carry the team a long way,
possibly to a championship, but they'll likely need big contributions
from a few others to win it all.
Over-hyped
center Skal Labissiere has finally started showing signs of the
skills everyone said he had coming into the season, and he'll have to
play much tougher if Kentucky is going to win the title. If small
forward Derek Willis shoots well and senior Alex Poythress comes to
play, the Wildcats have a decent shot at making a Final Four.
Kentucky is very good defensively, and they'll definitely be a tough
out. The selection committee certainly didn't do them any favors, as
they'll likely have to get by Indiana just to get to a Sweet 16
matchup with what would probably be UNC.
Virginia
Virginia
is one of the toughest teams in the country, boasting a nearly
impenetrable defense and one of the best players in college
basketball. Malcolm Brogdon has had an extraordinary senior season,
and if he can get some help the Cavaliers have a shot to make a deep
run.
They
have great teamwork on both ends of the floor, but outside of Brogdon
they don't have any consistent scorers. Virginia fights hard and is
always extremely competitive, but their lack of scoring talent will
likely cost them at some point.
Miami
Miami
is a tough team to figure out. They are one of the most athletic and
talented teams in the country, but sometimes they just don't show up.
They possess elite length and quickness, and when they're locked in
they can be as good as anyone. They laid an egg at Virginia Tech
with a chance to earn a share of the ACC Championship, and they were
down as much as 38 at UNC in an earlier battle for first place in the
league.
This
team has great shooters and slashers on the outside, an athletic big
man who can control the paint defensively, but it just seems like
something is missing. Coach Larranaga is a great tournament coach
who once took George Mason to the Final Four, so it wouldn't
completely shock me if they make a deep run. However, Miami's flops
in several big games this season will keep me from putting them in my
Final Four.
Maryland
Maryland
is one of the few teams in the country with legitimate offensive
threats both inside and out. They're a versatile offensive team with
scorers at every position, and a great point guard in Melo Trimble
who knows how to get the team organized.
However,
they seem to have lots of lapses and don't always bring it for full
games. They're defense breaks down at times, and I just can't see
them putting it all together for more than a couple games. They've
got Final Four potential if they can maintain their best effort, but
it's hard to see them getting by Kansas in the Sweet 16.
Purdue
Purdue
is probably the biggest team in college basketball this season. With
two 7-footers to go along with ultra-physical power forward Caleb
Swanigan inside, the Boilermakers have the size to dominate anyone.
Center A.J. Hammonds has been great at times, but some games he's
content to just stand around and fails to impose his will on the
game. Purdue we'll need him to be at his best to make a deep run.
This
team has been very good defensively at times, but their overall
inconsistency on both ends will likely be their undoing. They'll
need to get good outside shooting from the guards and dominant play
inside, while also having someone emerge as the go-to guy in clutch
situations.
St. Joe's
St.
Joseph's is my super sleeper of the tournament. This is the highest
seeded team that has a chance to make the final four, and if they can
get by Oregon their draw will open up. The Hawks are long and
athletic with good size, and they've got scoring options at every
position. Nearly everyone in their rotation can hit the three and
finish around the rim, and if they can put it all together a deep run
is a real possibility.
This
team has to avoid getting off to the slow starts that have plagued
them at times this season, but with two future NBA players in DeAndre
Bembry and Isaiah Miles on the roster they're never out of the game.
St. Joe's hasn't always played as hard as they should, but they can
be very explosive and it appears they've locked in late in the
season. They switch up their defenses between zone and man, making
them very tough to prepare for as well.
West
Virginia
West
Virginia is a team no one wants to play. They put maximum defensive
pressure on you at all times, employing a relentless full court press
that suffocates most teams. They play with great effort and
intensity, and if you don't have great ball-handling guards you have
no chance.
However,
the Mountaineers are not a great offensive team, so if you can take
care of the ball and look to score after breaking the pressure you
have a good chance to win. It's easier said than done, but someone
will likely do it before the Final Four.
Oklahoma
The
Sooners are one of the best teams in college basketball, mainly
because of superstar Buddy Hield. He's without question one of the
best players at this level, and he has the ability to carry this team
a long way. They are well-coached, experienced, and play very well
as a team on both ends of the floor.
Isaiah
Cousins and Jordan Woodard combine with Hield to make one of the
best backcourts in college basketball, but their lack of offense
inside could keep them from cutting down the nets. At times the
Sooners are much too reliant on 3-pointers, especially late in games,
and this could very well be their undoing in the tournament. They've
definitely got a chance to win it all, but I have a feeling that lack
of inside production will cost them.
Indiana
Indiana
can be very explosive, especially at home. Unfortunately for the
Hoosiers they won't be playing any tournament games at Assembly Hall,
but this team is still very capable of making a deep run. Point
guard Yogi Ferrell plays as hard as anyone, and he's surrounded by
lots of good shooters. You don't have to worry about effort with
this team, but they can get sloppy both offensively and defensively
when their shots aren't falling.
They
were good enough to win the Big Ten regular season title this year,
and if they get hot they could make a Final Four. However, they got
a very tough draw with Kentucky in the second round and most likely
North Carolina waiting in the Sweet 16. They'll need freshman center
Thomas Bryant to dominate inside and stay out of foul trouble.
Texas A&M
Texas
A&M has the key ingredients to make a deep run. They've got an
experienced point guard, capable shooters on the perimeter, and
several future NBA players.
Jalen
Jones is a versatile forward who can hurt teams both inside and out,
while freshman Tyler Davis is a load down low. How far the Aggies go
will likely depend on the play of senior Danuel House, an extremely
talented and athletic player who has been inconsistent throughout his
career. He's got all the skills to be great, but mentally he just
hasn't put it all together. Time is running out for House, but this
tournament is an opportunity for him to catch the eye of the NBA and
trick someone into taking him in the first round of the draft. He
brought his A-game in the SEC Tournament, and if he can continue that
kind of play this team has Final Four potential.
Villanova
Every
year it seems to be the same thing with Villanova. They're
well-coached, play extremely hard and together on both ends, and they
dominate their conference. Then they hit the tournament, and their lack of true talent is exposed early on.
This
is one of the best Wildcat teams in years, with scorers at every
position but no real stars. Josh Hart is an NBA talent who's capable
of dominating on both ends, while point guard Ryan Arcidiacono is as
clutch as they come. Daniel Ochefu is a load down low when he plays
with purpose. They've got decent shooters that have struggled most
of the season, but they're just so competitive that they always seem
to find a way to win.
It
wouldn't surprise me if this team makes a Final Four run, but it
would be a little shocking if they win it all. They're capable of
losing as early as round 2, so if you're looking to pick a big upset
this is as good a choice as any.
Xavier
This
Xavier squad is an extremely tough and well-rounded team. They have
great chemistry on both sides of the court, good leadership from the
upperclassmen, and young NBA talent at the guard positions. They've
got great shooters, rebounders, and defenders, and they can get big
contributions from a number of players on any given day.
The
Musketeers do everything pretty well, and it wouldn't shock me at all
to see them in the Final Four. However, they aren't the most
athletic team and they've struggled to get scoring production from
their big men. I expect them to most likely make the Sweet 16, but
things will get pretty tough after that.
California
Cal
is one of the more well-rounded teams in the country. They've got
big-time scoring options inside and out, with lots of length and
athleticism. They're a tough and talented team that's very good
defensively as well, and if they can put it all together at the right
time they could make a deep run.
They've
got experienced guards and potentially four future NBA players on the
roster. If likely lottery pick Jaylen Brown can snap out of his funk
and avoid foul trouble and turnovers, this team will be extremely
dangerous. On the flip side, the Bears' lack of tournament
experience and youth at a few positions could lead to an early exit.
Seton Hall
Seton
Hall has lots of quick, athletic players, and until the last few
weeks that's about the only good thing you could really say about
them. It seems something clicked with the Pirates lately, and
everyone on the roster appears to have bought in to the team
philosophy.
Early
in the season this team was extremely reckless and didn't play smart
basketball most of the time. They tended to try to do too much
individually, resulting in lots of bad decisions and turnovers.
While they still do this at times, it's starting to become the
exception rather than the rule.
Seton
Hall always played hard with great toughness, but now they're playing
together and with intelligence as well. If they can continue
consistently bringing this kind of effort, they're capable of beating
anyone in the country. Their first two games are ones they should
win, which would set up at date with Michigan State in the Sweet 16.
If ultra-talented guard Isaiah Whitehead keeps playing at the level
he's shown over the past few weeks, that game could be a lot closer
than people think.
Baylor
Baylor
is strong and athletic, but they can struggle mightily at the
offensive end at times. The Bears have some decent shooters and a
lot of tough players, but they've lacked consistency this season.
They don't always play very smart basketball, and it seems they often
have to get down big before they start playing their best. This team
is a candidate for an early upset, with the ability for a deep run if
they can put it all together for a few games in a row.
UCONN
UCONN
got it together just in time. The Huskies were on the bubble and in
jeopardy of missing the tournament when a three-quarter-court shot
sent their game with Cincinnati to a 4th overtime. They
went on to win that game and their conference tournament, and in the
process guaranteed themselves a spot in the NCAA's.
This
team has a lot of talent, but a lot of times they don't play very
smart. UCONN has lots of scoring options, and sophomore Daniel
Hamilton's versatility makes this team very tough to deal with. The
Huskies showed a lot of fight just to get here, and if they can play
a little more consistently they could win their first game.
Iowa St.
Iowa
State has lots of fight and experience, and they'll be a tough out in
this year's NCAA tournament. They've got a solid point guard who
never turns the ball over, decent shooters on the wings, and
versatile senior Georges Niang who can score inside and out. The
Cyclones, are a smart team on both ends, and they've proven to be
clutch in the big moments.
The
biggest obstacles for Iowa State are a lack of depth and athleticism.
Their short bench will hurt them in the event of injury or foul
trouble, and their overall lack of quickness will be damaging against
the top teams. Niang will certainly be tough to knock out in his
senior season, but this team is definitely vulnerable to an upset.
Arizona
I
feel like Arizona has been overrated all season long, but they're
playing their best at the right time. Most of that is because they
have one of the best coaches in the country in Sean Miller, along
with elevated play from their guards late in the season. Freshman
Allonzo Trier is one of the most competitive players in college
basketball, and both he and Gabe York are capable of making huge
plays in the clutch.
The
Wildcats play extremely hard, and while they don't have tons of
offensive talent they do have great size and a couple deadly closers.
They'll be tough defensively, and if Kaleb Tarzewski and Ryan
Anderson can dominate inside Arizona has a chance to make a solid
run.
Utah
Utah
has great size and a well-rounded offensive attack, and future pro
Jakob Poeltl will be a handful for any team without a good big man.
The Utes have a lot of talent, with shooters and slashers on the
perimeter to go with the skilled 7-footer inside. However, this team
lacks toughness and fight at times, a trait that gets you beat in the
tournament.
Notre Dame
Notre
Dame is an experienced team with lots of scoring options. Point
guard Demetrius Jackson is a great player who has struggled of late,
and the Fighting Irish will likely go as far as he takes them.
They've got good shooters on the perimeter and two capable big men in
Zach Auguste and Bonzi Colson, but they'll have to get consistent
contributions from everyone if they want to stick around.
Notre
Dame isn't great defensively, but they're very competitive and know
how to win. Anytime you've got a clutch player with elite
athleticism like Jackson, you've got a chance. However, the Irish
haven't played well over the past few weeks, and a humiliating defeat
to UNC in the ACC Tournament could have a carry-over effect.
Texas
Shaka
Smart has this Texas team playing light years ahead of where they
started the season, and they're another team that no one wants to
face. He brought his “Havoc” style over from VCU, and his
Longhorns seem to have finally bought in 100%. They're extremely
tough and athletic, and they use that and their great conditioning to
full-court press opponents all game long.
Defensively
they're great, but offensively they're inconsistent. They have a few
decent outside shooters, but their lack of inside scoring will likely
be their downfall. Point guard Isaiah Taylor is a great player who
always imposes his will on the game, but he'll need his young
backcourt mates to knock down shots for Texas to make a deep run. I
don't really expect them to make it past the first weekend.
Duke
As
usual Duke is getting about as much out of what they have as
possible. They've been playing six players for most of the season,
and this lack of depth will likely keep them from making a deep run
in March. This Blue Devil team once again relies too much on the
3-pointer, something that has plagued Duke teams in the past and will
likely catch up with them again this season.
The
injury to Amile Jefferson was devastating, robbing them of their only
real inside scoring threat. Grayson Allen has continued to put up
big numbers, somehow finding his way to the foul line over and over
again. Marshall Plumlee has played very tough inside and has made
himself an indispensable part of this team. Freshman sensation
Brandon Ingram has to play at an elite level if Duke is going to make
another Final Four, but he likely won't have enough to carry them
that far. They drew a tough first-round matchup in UNCW, a team that
uses a full-court press to wear down opponents. That strategy is
perfect for knocking off this year's Duke squad, and it won't
surprise me at all if Wilmington takes them out.
Wichita St.
Wichita
State is an extremely tough and experienced team with as much fight
as any team I've ever seen. They have great guards in Ron Baker and
Fred VanVleet who've been to a final four, and they're joined by role
players that give it everything they have. The Shockers are
undersized and have trouble scoring, but they play incredible defense
and usually find a way to win. They have a really tough first round
matchup with Arizona, and I won't be surprised no matter what happens
in that game.
Dayton
Dayton
is a veteran team that's been here before. They're great defensively
and compete extremely hard, but their lack of size will likely catch
up to them. They have plenty of scoring options and play together
and under control offensively, while also being connected on the
defensive end. This is as consistent a team as there is, but they'll
likely run into a team that's just too big and athletic for them to
handle. See Michigan State in round two.
VCU
Despite
losing its coach, this year's VCU team looks a lot like it did last
year. They're really quick and athletic, making their pressure
defense very effective. They play with tremendous effort, but
sometimes they're out of control. They also tend to overplay
defensively and can be exposed by just a couple simple passes.
The
Rams have a bunch of strong, aggressive drivers, and if their shots
are falling they could win a few games. If I'm playing them I'm
definitely playing a zone defense.
Gonzaga
Gonzaga
is back in the tournament once again, but this isn't nearly as good a
team as they've had the last few years. They're led by Domantas
Sabonis, a future pro and absolute beast inside, along with
sharp-shooting senior Kyle Wiltjer on the perimeter. This team is
well-coached and has improved a lot since the beginning of the
season, but they've got inexperienced guards and lack athleticism at
several positions. They've got to make sure Sabonis touches it on
most possessions if they hope to move on, as Seton Hall is much more
athletic and has pretty much every other advantage against them.
Michigan
Sometimes
I'm not quite sure how Michigan has done it this season, but they
clearly have a ton of fight just to have made the tournament. They
lost star player Caris LeVert to injury months ago, and the team has
come together in his absence. They've got lots of good shooters and
a lot of heart, but their lack of an inside presence will likely be
their downfall.
Iowa
Iowa
is a smart team with great ball movement and shooting. They have
good teamwork on both ends with two NBA-level players, but their lack
of athleticism and depth in certain spots could hurt them against the
nation's best.
Nearly
all their scoring comes from the guards and wings, and the lack of a
true inside threat will likely be their demise. If they shoot well
they are capable of making a nice run, but they're still in a late
season funk that has them losers of six of their last eight games.
Wisconsin
Wisconsin
has made huge strides since the beginning of the season, and they're
a team that could give lots of problems to anyone. They have good
shooters and scorers at all positions, and they play intelligent
basketball on both ends of the floor.
Their
lack of speed and athleticism in a few spots will likely catch up to
them at some point, and after watching them struggle while losing to
Nebraska in the Big Ten tournament, no result will really shock me
with this team.
Pittsburgh
Pittsburgh
is a tough team that's been inconsistent on the offensive end this
season. The Panthers have two really good players in Michael Young
and Jamel Artis, with decent length and athleticism at the other
positions as well. They typically play tough defense that keeps them
in most games, but they'll have to be better offensively if they hope
to move on in this tournament.
UNCW
UNC-Wilmington
is quick and athletic, using their full-court pressure defense to
wear down their opponents. They're extremely competitive, small but
aggressive, and they appear to thrive in the pressure moments. The
Seahawks are a smart team that plays together on both ends, making
them a very dangerous first round opponent. Watch out Duke.
Arkansas LR
I
really like what I saw from this Arkansas Little Rock team. They're
lightning quick and extremely athletic with tremendous ball and
player movement, resulting in lots of very good looks at the basket.
They've got a lot of fight and they're used to winning, and they come
in with the second best record in the country. Little Rock is a team
full of guards who seem to crave the big moment, and I think they're
capable of beating a lot of the teams in this tournament.
Unfortunately
they're matched up with the biggest team in the tournament, Purdue.
This is just an awful matchup for them, and it's going to be very
hard to beat a team with that kind of size down low.
Providence
Providence
has been one of the more disappointing teams this season. They've
got two first-round NBA draft picks in Kris Dunn and Ben Bentil, but
they haven't been able to put everything together. Those two guys
can pretty much do whatever they want on the floor, but the team
hasn't played very smart and a lot of that falls at the hands of
Dunn. He hasn't quite matured enough to make great decisions and
value the basketball yet, but the coach has to take a large part of
the blame as well. A team with this much talent should be much
better, and we'll see if they can get it together in time for the
tournament.
Syracuse
Syracuse
has very talented guards, led by senior point guard Michael Gbinije.
He's shown the ability to take over games at times this season, but
he has to have some help inside for this team to go anywhere.
Syracuse's big men have been virtually non-existent all season long
and have made this team very one-dimensional. Their predictable zone
defense has also been much less intimidating this season, and I just
don't think this team can do a lot of damage in the tournament.
Colorado
Colorado
has good length and athleticism with a balanced inside/outside
attack. George King is an underrated shooting guard who I think can
play in the NBA, while Josh Scott is a talented big man who will
continue his playing career after college as well. The Buffaloes
have turned the ball over way too much this season, so they'll need
to take care of the ball and get some contributions from the role
players if they want to move on. They have a very intriguing
first-round matchup with UCONN.
Temple
Temple
is a well-connected team on both ends of the floor. They don't
really have any superstars, but they play smart and together. The
Owls move the ball and have capable shooters and scorers, while also
playing tough defensively. Quenton DeCosey is their go-to guy, but
everyone contributes and is capable of finishing a play. You'll have
to play well to beat them, but they're not going to do anything
special.
Hawaii
Hawaii
has a dangerous trio that could definitely pull off an upset or two.
Point guard Roderick Bobbitt can catch fire and put points on the
board, while Aaron Valdes gives the Rainbows a defensive stopper who
does all the dirty work. Conference player of the year Stefan
Jankovic provides an inside/outside threat, and I really think this
team has a shot to give California some big problems in round one.
Southern
California
Southern
Cal is young but talented with a lot of fight. They've got lots of
scoring options both inside and out, but as often happens with youth
they have been very inconsistent. They're certainly capable of
pulling off a win in round one, but it wouldn't surprise me to see
them bow out rather easily either.
Butler
Butler
has some good shooters and playmakers, but their lack of size and
athleticism kept them from being better this season. They play
extremely hard, but they often have trouble defending and can get
caught up trying to go 1-on-1 offensively. They might be able to
sneak a win in round one, but that's as far as this team will go.
Cincinnati
Cincinnati
is one of the toughest teams in this tournament, but unfortunately
they just don't have a lot of talented offensive players. They play
tremendous defense and make you work extremely hard for everything,
but their frequent scoring droughts make it hard to beat the nation's
best.
Iona
Iona
is a tricky team led by future NBA player A.J. English. They switch
up their defense a lot, toggling between a full-court press, matchup
zone, and straight up man-to-man. English is a big-time scorer and
very good passer as well, and he's surrounded by several capable
shooters and a decent big man. The Gaels have lots of length and
athleticism and play extremely hard. If they get hot they're
definitely capable of a first-round upset.
Texas Tech
Texas
Tech had some huge wins over some really good teams this year, but
they're coming off a first round loss in the conference tournament to
bottom dweller TCU. Tubby Smith has done a great job turning this
program around, but their likely at least a year away from doing any
serious damage in the tournament.
Buffalo
Buffalo
struggled at times this season, but it seems like they're hitting
their stride at the right time. They're extremely quick, deep, and
athletic, and if they're knocking down outside shots they could be
very dangerous. Their quickness and athleticism could give anyone
trouble, and if you're wanting to pick a major upset this is as good
a candidate as any.
Oregon St.
Oregon
State is led by future NBA player Gary Payton II, and he'll need to
take charge early and often for the Beavers to make any noise.
Payton often waits until the 2nd half to impose his will,
and if he does this they'll likely make a quick exit. The injury to
freshman Tres Tinkle was a devastating loss, and while Derrick Bruce
has stepped up admirably in his absence, it doesn't appear that
there's enough help to do much damage.
Florida Gulf
Coast
The
team that took the world by storm a few years ago is back, but don't
expect them to duplicate that run to the Sweet 16. That team was led
by it's guards, this one is more about the post players. The Eagles
played well in blowing out #1 seed North Florida on their way to
Atlantic Sun conference title,
but
unfortunately they got stuck with a #16 seed and will most likely bow
out to UNC. The Eagles are by far the best #16 seed though, so I do
believe they have the highest chance of pulling off that miracle
upset.
Northern
Iowa
Northern
Iowa is a well-coached team who has been a giant killer over the
years. They defeated UNC and Iowa State already this season, proving
they're capable of beating the best. They've got great shooters
surrounding lightning-quick point guard Wes Washpun, a player who
seems to crave the big moment and delivers more often than not. I
wouldn't want to see this team early on, and it will be interesting
to see how they handle Texas' full court press.
Tulsa
Tulsa
has very good guards, but they've struggled to shoot from outside all
season and their selection into this tournament is questionable.
They lack a true post presence as well, so I really don't expect much
from this team.
South Dakota
St.
South
Dakota State plays good team ball. It's getting pretty commonplace
seeing them in the tournament year after year, and they've got a
well-rounded inside/outside attack that could potentially cause
problems for Maryland. Mike Daum is a skilled player inside, while
George Marshall and Deondre Parks compliment him well on the
perimeter. The Jackrabbits likely aren't quite athletic enough to
keep up with Maryland, but you never know.
Fresno St.
Fresno
State plays very good team defense, making it tough for any opponent
to get all the way to the basket. Guard Marvelle Harris had a great
season, and he'll need to be at his absolute best to give his team a
chance to pull an upset. Fresno performed extremely well under the
pressure to finish off San Diego State in the conference title game,
but they're probably not big or athletic enough to knock off Utah.
Vanderbilt
This
team was ranked very highly early in the season and a popular Final
Four pick of several analysts, but they haven't looked like it for
much of the season. Point guard Wade Baldwin IV and center Damion
Jones have been hyped as NBA players, but as of now I wouldn't want
either of them. Jones seems disinterested at times, and they'll have
a hard time winning if he fails to leave his mark on the game.
They
started to play much better late in the season, but a disappointing
loss to Tennessee in the SEC Tournament sort of let us know where
they stand. They do have the size and scorers to beat a lot of
teams, but it's really hard to trust these guys.
Austin Peay
Austin
Peay had a rough season but got hot at the right time. Center Chris
Horton is capable of dominating against nearly anyone in the post and
on the backboard, making them a very dangerous matchup. Their guards
made a lot of shots late in the conference tournament, and they'll
need to do a lot more of that to have any shot in a brutal
first-round matchup against Kansas. I think this is a team that
could have pulled a major upset with a slightly better seed, but
Kansas will likely be too much.
Stony Brook
Stony
Brook is led by power forward Jameel Warney, a dominant player that
has a chance to play in the NBA. He carried his team in the
conference championship, scoring 43 points to make the tournament for
the first time in his career. He'll probably be able to put up some
decent numbers against a weak Kentucky front line, but the Wildcat
guards will be too much to handle.
Green Bay
Green
Bay plays very good team defense, but they're likely too small to
give Texas A&M much of a problem. Jordan Foust and Carrington
Love give them nice offensive balance, but the Phoenix are just
outmatched physically against the Aggies.
Stephen F.
Austin
Stephen
F. Austin dominated its conference with its suffocating pressure
defense, and ironically it meets its major-conference mirror image in
West Virginia. Both teams feed off turnovers and thrive in
transition, but it's going to be tough for the Lumberjacks to deal
with the Mountaineers' size and athleticism. Stephen F. Austin has a
lot of NCAA experience to fall back on, and if West Virginia has a
horrible shooting night there might be a chance.
Chattanooga
Chattanooga
is deep and athletic, but they're likely too sloppy on both ends of
the floor to pull an upset. They do have some decent shooters, but
their offense is disorganized with nearly everything coming off the
dribble. None of their players really look to pass, and even when
they do they don't have the vision to make the right one. They can
be quick and disruptive defensively at times, mixing in a zone that
can confuse opponents and lead to turnovers. However, a patient
offense that makes a few good passes will likely find itself with an
open shot. Indiana will likely do a lot of this, and I look for the
Hoosiers to win rather easily.
Cal State
Bakersfield
This
is the first time Cal State Bakersfield has made the NCAA tournament,
and they did it in dramatic fashion with a buzzer-beating three
against New Mexico State. They play pressure defense that sometimes
extends to full court, and they have a balanced offensive attack to
go with it. The Road Runners have some decent shooters and
playmakers, but they're probably just not big or athletic enough to
upset Oklahoma.
Weber St.
Weber
State moves the ball very well on offense, resulting in
high-percentage shots. Jeremy Senglin is a deadly outside shooter,
and Joel Bolomboy dominates the boards down low. They've got capable
shooters, but the size and athleticism difference will be tough to
overcome against Xavier.
Hampton
Hampton
has some talented scorers, but they're undersized and will likely get
locked down by Virginia's suffocating defense.
Yale
Justin
Sears was a dominant player in the Ivy League, but he'll need a lot
of help from his teammates to take out Baylor. Yale has good ball
movement resulting in lots of good looks, but their lack of size and
athleticism will make it very difficult to knock off the Bears.
Middle
Tennessee St.
Middle
Tennessee State has decent size and athleticism and plays very hard,
but they a lot of trouble finishing at times. They don't have a lot
of guys that can get their own shot, and they'll likely be beaten
soundly in round one.
UNC
Asheville
UNC-Asheville
did well to win their conference tournament, but they're likely just
too small to hang with Villanova. They don't do anything
exceptionally well and they can't really shoot, so I'm not sure how
they could really hurt the Wildcats.
Holy Cross
At
14-19 Holy Cross had a very rough season, but they're finishing with
a flurry by winning their conference tournament. The Crusaders are
very small without a lot of athleticism, and while they play with
great effort, it won't be enough to take out Oregon if they can get
by Southern in Dayton.
Southern
Southern
has a chance in their first four game in Dayton, but they're likely
much too small to beat Oregon. They just don't have enough ways to
hurt a team as talented as the Ducks.
Farleigh
Dickinson
Farleigh
Dickinson is an extremely young team without much size or
athleticism. They play a weak 2-3 zone defense, and they really
don't do anything at a high level. Darian Anderson and Earl Potts
Jr. will form a nice backcourt for years to come, but this year's
stay in the NCAA tournament will likely be a short one.
