Wednesday, March 16, 2016

NCAA Tournament: What to Expect From All 68 Teams

This year's tournament feels like it's as wide open as it's been in many years, but I'll be a little surprised if someone other than Kansas, Michigan State, or North Carolina emerges as National Champion.  Plenty of other teams have a shot at it, but these three have set themselves apart as the favorites.





2016 NCAA Tournament Teams

Kansas
Kansas is extremely deep and talented, boasting one of the top two rosters in the nation. They have scoring from lots of different places, but their bigs struggle to consistently put the ball in the basket. I think Bill Self has made a big mistake not getting more playing time for his freshman big men Carlton Bragg and Cheick Diallo. Both have a shot to be NBA All-Stars at some point, and if they don't win the championship the Jayhawks can point to this error as the reason why. Self obviously does a lot right as a coach, but this one could cost him big.

Senior Perry Ellis is having a spectacular year, and he's got a bunch of talented guards around him to make a deep run. The Jayhawks haven't always been consistent this season, but they won the Big 12 for the 12th consecutive year and seem to be peaking at the right time. They've got a ton of experience, and they're definitely one of the favorites to win this year's National Championship.

Michigan St.
This kinda feels like a Michigan State year. Denzel Valentine is one of the top two players in college basketball and my vote for Player of the Year. This team would be nothing without him, but with him they have a great chance to cut down the nets. Valentine knows exactly what his team needs at all times, and he's nearly always able to deliver.

Tom Izzo has this team playing harder than anyone. They're an extremely competitive team that gives all-out effort at all times, and in a year where there isn't a clear favorite this might just be the difference. Shooting guard Bryn Forbes has been on fire this season, and senior Matt Costello is playing out of his mind down low. The Spartans are all over the place, seemingly getting to every loose ball. They have a tremendous will that comes directly from their Hall of Fame coach, and he seems to know the exact buttons to press to get his teams playing their best in the tournament. While not the most talented team, Michigan State is one of the favorites to win it all.

UNC
The Tar Heels are one of the deepest and most talented teams in the nation, but they've been inconsistent for much of the year. It's hard to believe they won a tough ACC regular season and tournament championship while being so up and down, but that just speaks to their immense talent and well-rounded offensive attack.

Brice Johnson has played great all season, and he's one of the best post players at this level. Feeding him consistently has to be a priority, and if everything goes right for UNC they could be crowned national champion in a few weeks.

As a Carolina alum and huge fan I'm usually more critical of the Heels than anyone else, mainly because I see and scrutinize them nearly every game. They've got scorers at every position, shooters on the outside, back to the basket big men inside, and the size to match up with any team at any time.
However, lineup mistakes are made constantly and often cost the Heels games they should have won. This can't happen anymore if UNC is going to win 6 games in a row against NCAA tournament teams, and at this point I just don't have the confidence that Roy Williams is capable of making the correct adjustments at the right times.

Carolina could win the whole thing, or get knocked out in round 3. You never know what you're gonna get with this team, but they do appear to be peaking at the right time.

Oregon
Despite the loss of star player and tournament hero from the past few years Joseph Young, Oregon got even better and won the Pac-12 regular season title this season. The Ducks are young and athletic with good scoring options at all positions. They've got great shooters on the perimeter, several guys with the ability to put the ball on the floor and get to the rim, along with an elite rim defender and finisher in Chris Boucher inside.

With so many options the Ducks can have a different player step up on any given night, giving them more consistency than most teams this season. Oregon is definitely capable of a deep run, but vulnerable against teams with a powerful big man. Although he's a great shot blocker, Boucher is very thin and could have trouble against teams with size and strength inside. If he gets in foul trouble the Ducks get much smaller and the middle opens up big time.


Kentucky
Kentucky has improved as much as any team since the start of the season, and they boast what is probably the country's best backcourt. Tyler Ulis and Jamal Murray have been incredible for the Wildcats all season, but unfortunately they haven't been able to get consistent help. These two players are talented enough to carry the team a long way, possibly to a championship, but they'll likely need big contributions from a few others to win it all.

Over-hyped center Skal Labissiere has finally started showing signs of the skills everyone said he had coming into the season, and he'll have to play much tougher if Kentucky is going to win the title. If small forward Derek Willis shoots well and senior Alex Poythress comes to play, the Wildcats have a decent shot at making a Final Four. Kentucky is very good defensively, and they'll definitely be a tough out. The selection committee certainly didn't do them any favors, as they'll likely have to get by Indiana just to get to a Sweet 16 matchup with what would probably be UNC.

Virginia
Virginia is one of the toughest teams in the country, boasting a nearly impenetrable defense and one of the best players in college basketball. Malcolm Brogdon has had an extraordinary senior season, and if he can get some help the Cavaliers have a shot to make a deep run.

They have great teamwork on both ends of the floor, but outside of Brogdon they don't have any consistent scorers. Virginia fights hard and is always extremely competitive, but their lack of scoring talent will likely cost them at some point.

Miami
Miami is a tough team to figure out. They are one of the most athletic and talented teams in the country, but sometimes they just don't show up. They possess elite length and quickness, and when they're locked in they can be as good as anyone. They laid an egg at Virginia Tech with a chance to earn a share of the ACC Championship, and they were down as much as 38 at UNC in an earlier battle for first place in the league.

This team has great shooters and slashers on the outside, an athletic big man who can control the paint defensively, but it just seems like something is missing. Coach Larranaga is a great tournament coach who once took George Mason to the Final Four, so it wouldn't completely shock me if they make a deep run. However, Miami's flops in several big games this season will keep me from putting them in my Final Four.

Maryland
Maryland is one of the few teams in the country with legitimate offensive threats both inside and out. They're a versatile offensive team with scorers at every position, and a great point guard in Melo Trimble who knows how to get the team organized.

However, they seem to have lots of lapses and don't always bring it for full games. They're defense breaks down at times, and I just can't see them putting it all together for more than a couple games. They've got Final Four potential if they can maintain their best effort, but it's hard to see them getting by Kansas in the Sweet 16.

Purdue
Purdue is probably the biggest team in college basketball this season. With two 7-footers to go along with ultra-physical power forward Caleb Swanigan inside, the Boilermakers have the size to dominate anyone. Center A.J. Hammonds has been great at times, but some games he's content to just stand around and fails to impose his will on the game. Purdue we'll need him to be at his best to make a deep run.

This team has been very good defensively at times, but their overall inconsistency on both ends will likely be their undoing. They'll need to get good outside shooting from the guards and dominant play inside, while also having someone emerge as the go-to guy in clutch situations.

St. Joe's
St. Joseph's is my super sleeper of the tournament. This is the highest seeded team that has a chance to make the final four, and if they can get by Oregon their draw will open up. The Hawks are long and athletic with good size, and they've got scoring options at every position. Nearly everyone in their rotation can hit the three and finish around the rim, and if they can put it all together a deep run is a real possibility.

This team has to avoid getting off to the slow starts that have plagued them at times this season, but with two future NBA players in DeAndre Bembry and Isaiah Miles on the roster they're never out of the game. St. Joe's hasn't always played as hard as they should, but they can be very explosive and it appears they've locked in late in the season. They switch up their defenses between zone and man, making them very tough to prepare for as well.

West Virginia
West Virginia is a team no one wants to play. They put maximum defensive pressure on you at all times, employing a relentless full court press that suffocates most teams. They play with great effort and intensity, and if you don't have great ball-handling guards you have no chance.

However, the Mountaineers are not a great offensive team, so if you can take care of the ball and look to score after breaking the pressure you have a good chance to win. It's easier said than done, but someone will likely do it before the Final Four.

Oklahoma
The Sooners are one of the best teams in college basketball, mainly because of superstar Buddy Hield. He's without question one of the best players at this level, and he has the ability to carry this team a long way. They are well-coached, experienced, and play very well as a team on both ends of the floor.

Isaiah Cousins and Jordan Woodard combine with Hield to make one of the best backcourts in college basketball, but their lack of offense inside could keep them from cutting down the nets. At times the Sooners are much too reliant on 3-pointers, especially late in games, and this could very well be their undoing in the tournament. They've definitely got a chance to win it all, but I have a feeling that lack of inside production will cost them.

Indiana
Indiana can be very explosive, especially at home. Unfortunately for the Hoosiers they won't be playing any tournament games at Assembly Hall, but this team is still very capable of making a deep run. Point guard Yogi Ferrell plays as hard as anyone, and he's surrounded by lots of good shooters. You don't have to worry about effort with this team, but they can get sloppy both offensively and defensively when their shots aren't falling.

They were good enough to win the Big Ten regular season title this year, and if they get hot they could make a Final Four. However, they got a very tough draw with Kentucky in the second round and most likely North Carolina waiting in the Sweet 16. They'll need freshman center Thomas Bryant to dominate inside and stay out of foul trouble.

Texas A&M
Texas A&M has the key ingredients to make a deep run. They've got an experienced point guard, capable shooters on the perimeter, and several future NBA players.

Jalen Jones is a versatile forward who can hurt teams both inside and out, while freshman Tyler Davis is a load down low. How far the Aggies go will likely depend on the play of senior Danuel House, an extremely talented and athletic player who has been inconsistent throughout his career. He's got all the skills to be great, but mentally he just hasn't put it all together. Time is running out for House, but this tournament is an opportunity for him to catch the eye of the NBA and trick someone into taking him in the first round of the draft. He brought his A-game in the SEC Tournament, and if he can continue that kind of play this team has Final Four potential.

Villanova
Every year it seems to be the same thing with Villanova. They're well-coached, play extremely hard and together on both ends, and they dominate their conference. Then they hit the tournament, and their lack of true talent is exposed early on.

This is one of the best Wildcat teams in years, with scorers at every position but no real stars. Josh Hart is an NBA talent who's capable of dominating on both ends, while point guard Ryan Arcidiacono is as clutch as they come. Daniel Ochefu is a load down low when he plays with purpose. They've got decent shooters that have struggled most of the season, but they're just so competitive that they always seem to find a way to win.

It wouldn't surprise me if this team makes a Final Four run, but it would be a little shocking if they win it all. They're capable of losing as early as round 2, so if you're looking to pick a big upset this is as good a choice as any.

Xavier
This Xavier squad is an extremely tough and well-rounded team. They have great chemistry on both sides of the court, good leadership from the upperclassmen, and young NBA talent at the guard positions. They've got great shooters, rebounders, and defenders, and they can get big contributions from a number of players on any given day.

The Musketeers do everything pretty well, and it wouldn't shock me at all to see them in the Final Four. However, they aren't the most athletic team and they've struggled to get scoring production from their big men. I expect them to most likely make the Sweet 16, but things will get pretty tough after that.

California
Cal is one of the more well-rounded teams in the country. They've got big-time scoring options inside and out, with lots of length and athleticism. They're a tough and talented team that's very good defensively as well, and if they can put it all together at the right time they could make a deep run.

They've got experienced guards and potentially four future NBA players on the roster. If likely lottery pick Jaylen Brown can snap out of his funk and avoid foul trouble and turnovers, this team will be extremely dangerous. On the flip side, the Bears' lack of tournament experience and youth at a few positions could lead to an early exit.

Seton Hall
Seton Hall has lots of quick, athletic players, and until the last few weeks that's about the only good thing you could really say about them. It seems something clicked with the Pirates lately, and everyone on the roster appears to have bought in to the team philosophy.

Early in the season this team was extremely reckless and didn't play smart basketball most of the time. They tended to try to do too much individually, resulting in lots of bad decisions and turnovers. While they still do this at times, it's starting to become the exception rather than the rule.

Seton Hall always played hard with great toughness, but now they're playing together and with intelligence as well. If they can continue consistently bringing this kind of effort, they're capable of beating anyone in the country. Their first two games are ones they should win, which would set up at date with Michigan State in the Sweet 16. If ultra-talented guard Isaiah Whitehead keeps playing at the level he's shown over the past few weeks, that game could be a lot closer than people think.

Baylor
Baylor is strong and athletic, but they can struggle mightily at the offensive end at times. The Bears have some decent shooters and a lot of tough players, but they've lacked consistency this season. They don't always play very smart basketball, and it seems they often have to get down big before they start playing their best. This team is a candidate for an early upset, with the ability for a deep run if they can put it all together for a few games in a row.

UCONN
UCONN got it together just in time. The Huskies were on the bubble and in jeopardy of missing the tournament when a three-quarter-court shot sent their game with Cincinnati to a 4th overtime. They went on to win that game and their conference tournament, and in the process guaranteed themselves a spot in the NCAA's.

This team has a lot of talent, but a lot of times they don't play very smart. UCONN has lots of scoring options, and sophomore Daniel Hamilton's versatility makes this team very tough to deal with. The Huskies showed a lot of fight just to get here, and if they can play a little more consistently they could win their first game.

Iowa St.
Iowa State has lots of fight and experience, and they'll be a tough out in this year's NCAA tournament. They've got a solid point guard who never turns the ball over, decent shooters on the wings, and versatile senior Georges Niang who can score inside and out. The Cyclones, are a smart team on both ends, and they've proven to be clutch in the big moments.

The biggest obstacles for Iowa State are a lack of depth and athleticism. Their short bench will hurt them in the event of injury or foul trouble, and their overall lack of quickness will be damaging against the top teams. Niang will certainly be tough to knock out in his senior season, but this team is definitely vulnerable to an upset.

Arizona
I feel like Arizona has been overrated all season long, but they're playing their best at the right time. Most of that is because they have one of the best coaches in the country in Sean Miller, along with elevated play from their guards late in the season. Freshman Allonzo Trier is one of the most competitive players in college basketball, and both he and Gabe York are capable of making huge plays in the clutch.

The Wildcats play extremely hard, and while they don't have tons of offensive talent they do have great size and a couple deadly closers. They'll be tough defensively, and if Kaleb Tarzewski and Ryan Anderson can dominate inside Arizona has a chance to make a solid run.

Utah
Utah has great size and a well-rounded offensive attack, and future pro Jakob Poeltl will be a handful for any team without a good big man. The Utes have a lot of talent, with shooters and slashers on the perimeter to go with the skilled 7-footer inside. However, this team lacks toughness and fight at times, a trait that gets you beat in the tournament.

Notre Dame
Notre Dame is an experienced team with lots of scoring options. Point guard Demetrius Jackson is a great player who has struggled of late, and the Fighting Irish will likely go as far as he takes them. They've got good shooters on the perimeter and two capable big men in Zach Auguste and Bonzi Colson, but they'll have to get consistent contributions from everyone if they want to stick around.

Notre Dame isn't great defensively, but they're very competitive and know how to win. Anytime you've got a clutch player with elite athleticism like Jackson, you've got a chance. However, the Irish haven't played well over the past few weeks, and a humiliating defeat to UNC in the ACC Tournament could have a carry-over effect.

Texas
Shaka Smart has this Texas team playing light years ahead of where they started the season, and they're another team that no one wants to face. He brought his “Havoc” style over from VCU, and his Longhorns seem to have finally bought in 100%. They're extremely tough and athletic, and they use that and their great conditioning to full-court press opponents all game long.

Defensively they're great, but offensively they're inconsistent. They have a few decent outside shooters, but their lack of inside scoring will likely be their downfall. Point guard Isaiah Taylor is a great player who always imposes his will on the game, but he'll need his young backcourt mates to knock down shots for Texas to make a deep run. I don't really expect them to make it past the first weekend.

Duke
As usual Duke is getting about as much out of what they have as possible. They've been playing six players for most of the season, and this lack of depth will likely keep them from making a deep run in March. This Blue Devil team once again relies too much on the 3-pointer, something that has plagued Duke teams in the past and will likely catch up with them again this season.

The injury to Amile Jefferson was devastating, robbing them of their only real inside scoring threat. Grayson Allen has continued to put up big numbers, somehow finding his way to the foul line over and over again. Marshall Plumlee has played very tough inside and has made himself an indispensable part of this team. Freshman sensation Brandon Ingram has to play at an elite level if Duke is going to make another Final Four, but he likely won't have enough to carry them that far. They drew a tough first-round matchup in UNCW, a team that uses a full-court press to wear down opponents. That strategy is perfect for knocking off this year's Duke squad, and it won't surprise me at all if Wilmington takes them out.

Wichita St.
Wichita State is an extremely tough and experienced team with as much fight as any team I've ever seen. They have great guards in Ron Baker and Fred VanVleet who've been to a final four, and they're joined by role players that give it everything they have. The Shockers are undersized and have trouble scoring, but they play incredible defense and usually find a way to win. They have a really tough first round matchup with Arizona, and I won't be surprised no matter what happens in that game.

Dayton
Dayton is a veteran team that's been here before. They're great defensively and compete extremely hard, but their lack of size will likely catch up to them. They have plenty of scoring options and play together and under control offensively, while also being connected on the defensive end. This is as consistent a team as there is, but they'll likely run into a team that's just too big and athletic for them to handle. See Michigan State in round two.

VCU
Despite losing its coach, this year's VCU team looks a lot like it did last year. They're really quick and athletic, making their pressure defense very effective. They play with tremendous effort, but sometimes they're out of control. They also tend to overplay defensively and can be exposed by just a couple simple passes.

The Rams have a bunch of strong, aggressive drivers, and if their shots are falling they could win a few games. If I'm playing them I'm definitely playing a zone defense.

Gonzaga
Gonzaga is back in the tournament once again, but this isn't nearly as good a team as they've had the last few years. They're led by Domantas Sabonis, a future pro and absolute beast inside, along with sharp-shooting senior Kyle Wiltjer on the perimeter. This team is well-coached and has improved a lot since the beginning of the season, but they've got inexperienced guards and lack athleticism at several positions. They've got to make sure Sabonis touches it on most possessions if they hope to move on, as Seton Hall is much more athletic and has pretty much every other advantage against them.

Michigan
Sometimes I'm not quite sure how Michigan has done it this season, but they clearly have a ton of fight just to have made the tournament. They lost star player Caris LeVert to injury months ago, and the team has come together in his absence. They've got lots of good shooters and a lot of heart, but their lack of an inside presence will likely be their downfall.

Iowa
Iowa is a smart team with great ball movement and shooting. They have good teamwork on both ends with two NBA-level players, but their lack of athleticism and depth in certain spots could hurt them against the nation's best.

Nearly all their scoring comes from the guards and wings, and the lack of a true inside threat will likely be their demise. If they shoot well they are capable of making a nice run, but they're still in a late season funk that has them losers of six of their last eight games.

Wisconsin
Wisconsin has made huge strides since the beginning of the season, and they're a team that could give lots of problems to anyone. They have good shooters and scorers at all positions, and they play intelligent basketball on both ends of the floor.

Their lack of speed and athleticism in a few spots will likely catch up to them at some point, and after watching them struggle while losing to Nebraska in the Big Ten tournament, no result will really shock me with this team.

Pittsburgh
Pittsburgh is a tough team that's been inconsistent on the offensive end this season. The Panthers have two really good players in Michael Young and Jamel Artis, with decent length and athleticism at the other positions as well. They typically play tough defense that keeps them in most games, but they'll have to be better offensively if they hope to move on in this tournament.

UNCW
UNC-Wilmington is quick and athletic, using their full-court pressure defense to wear down their opponents. They're extremely competitive, small but aggressive, and they appear to thrive in the pressure moments. The Seahawks are a smart team that plays together on both ends, making them a very dangerous first round opponent. Watch out Duke.

Arkansas LR
I really like what I saw from this Arkansas Little Rock team. They're lightning quick and extremely athletic with tremendous ball and player movement, resulting in lots of very good looks at the basket. They've got a lot of fight and they're used to winning, and they come in with the second best record in the country. Little Rock is a team full of guards who seem to crave the big moment, and I think they're capable of beating a lot of the teams in this tournament.

Unfortunately they're matched up with the biggest team in the tournament, Purdue. This is just an awful matchup for them, and it's going to be very hard to beat a team with that kind of size down low.

Providence
Providence has been one of the more disappointing teams this season. They've got two first-round NBA draft picks in Kris Dunn and Ben Bentil, but they haven't been able to put everything together. Those two guys can pretty much do whatever they want on the floor, but the team hasn't played very smart and a lot of that falls at the hands of Dunn. He hasn't quite matured enough to make great decisions and value the basketball yet, but the coach has to take a large part of the blame as well. A team with this much talent should be much better, and we'll see if they can get it together in time for the tournament.

Syracuse
Syracuse has very talented guards, led by senior point guard Michael Gbinije. He's shown the ability to take over games at times this season, but he has to have some help inside for this team to go anywhere. Syracuse's big men have been virtually non-existent all season long and have made this team very one-dimensional. Their predictable zone defense has also been much less intimidating this season, and I just don't think this team can do a lot of damage in the tournament.

Colorado
Colorado has good length and athleticism with a balanced inside/outside attack. George King is an underrated shooting guard who I think can play in the NBA, while Josh Scott is a talented big man who will continue his playing career after college as well. The Buffaloes have turned the ball over way too much this season, so they'll need to take care of the ball and get some contributions from the role players if they want to move on. They have a very intriguing first-round matchup with UCONN.

Temple
Temple is a well-connected team on both ends of the floor. They don't really have any superstars, but they play smart and together. The Owls move the ball and have capable shooters and scorers, while also playing tough defensively. Quenton DeCosey is their go-to guy, but everyone contributes and is capable of finishing a play. You'll have to play well to beat them, but they're not going to do anything special.

Hawaii
Hawaii has a dangerous trio that could definitely pull off an upset or two. Point guard Roderick Bobbitt can catch fire and put points on the board, while Aaron Valdes gives the Rainbows a defensive stopper who does all the dirty work. Conference player of the year Stefan Jankovic provides an inside/outside threat, and I really think this team has a shot to give California some big problems in round one.

Southern California
Southern Cal is young but talented with a lot of fight. They've got lots of scoring options both inside and out, but as often happens with youth they have been very inconsistent. They're certainly capable of pulling off a win in round one, but it wouldn't surprise me to see them bow out rather easily either.

Butler
Butler has some good shooters and playmakers, but their lack of size and athleticism kept them from being better this season. They play extremely hard, but they often have trouble defending and can get caught up trying to go 1-on-1 offensively. They might be able to sneak a win in round one, but that's as far as this team will go.

Cincinnati
Cincinnati is one of the toughest teams in this tournament, but unfortunately they just don't have a lot of talented offensive players. They play tremendous defense and make you work extremely hard for everything, but their frequent scoring droughts make it hard to beat the nation's best.

Iona
Iona is a tricky team led by future NBA player A.J. English. They switch up their defense a lot, toggling between a full-court press, matchup zone, and straight up man-to-man. English is a big-time scorer and very good passer as well, and he's surrounded by several capable shooters and a decent big man. The Gaels have lots of length and athleticism and play extremely hard. If they get hot they're definitely capable of a first-round upset.

Texas Tech
Texas Tech had some huge wins over some really good teams this year, but they're coming off a first round loss in the conference tournament to bottom dweller TCU. Tubby Smith has done a great job turning this program around, but their likely at least a year away from doing any serious damage in the tournament.

Buffalo
Buffalo struggled at times this season, but it seems like they're hitting their stride at the right time. They're extremely quick, deep, and athletic, and if they're knocking down outside shots they could be very dangerous. Their quickness and athleticism could give anyone trouble, and if you're wanting to pick a major upset this is as good a candidate as any.

Oregon St.
Oregon State is led by future NBA player Gary Payton II, and he'll need to take charge early and often for the Beavers to make any noise. Payton often waits until the 2nd half to impose his will, and if he does this they'll likely make a quick exit. The injury to freshman Tres Tinkle was a devastating loss, and while Derrick Bruce has stepped up admirably in his absence, it doesn't appear that there's enough help to do much damage.

Florida Gulf Coast
The team that took the world by storm a few years ago is back, but don't expect them to duplicate that run to the Sweet 16. That team was led by it's guards, this one is more about the post players. The Eagles played well in blowing out #1 seed North Florida on their way to Atlantic Sun conference title,
but unfortunately they got stuck with a #16 seed and will most likely bow out to UNC. The Eagles are by far the best #16 seed though, so I do believe they have the highest chance of pulling off that miracle upset.

Northern Iowa
Northern Iowa is a well-coached team who has been a giant killer over the years. They defeated UNC and Iowa State already this season, proving they're capable of beating the best. They've got great shooters surrounding lightning-quick point guard Wes Washpun, a player who seems to crave the big moment and delivers more often than not. I wouldn't want to see this team early on, and it will be interesting to see how they handle Texas' full court press.

Tulsa
Tulsa has very good guards, but they've struggled to shoot from outside all season and their selection into this tournament is questionable. They lack a true post presence as well, so I really don't expect much from this team.

South Dakota St.
South Dakota State plays good team ball. It's getting pretty commonplace seeing them in the tournament year after year, and they've got a well-rounded inside/outside attack that could potentially cause problems for Maryland. Mike Daum is a skilled player inside, while George Marshall and Deondre Parks compliment him well on the perimeter. The Jackrabbits likely aren't quite athletic enough to keep up with Maryland, but you never know.

Fresno St.
Fresno State plays very good team defense, making it tough for any opponent to get all the way to the basket. Guard Marvelle Harris had a great season, and he'll need to be at his absolute best to give his team a chance to pull an upset. Fresno performed extremely well under the pressure to finish off San Diego State in the conference title game, but they're probably not big or athletic enough to knock off Utah.

Vanderbilt
This team was ranked very highly early in the season and a popular Final Four pick of several analysts, but they haven't looked like it for much of the season. Point guard Wade Baldwin IV and center Damion Jones have been hyped as NBA players, but as of now I wouldn't want either of them. Jones seems disinterested at times, and they'll have a hard time winning if he fails to leave his mark on the game.

They started to play much better late in the season, but a disappointing loss to Tennessee in the SEC Tournament sort of let us know where they stand. They do have the size and scorers to beat a lot of teams, but it's really hard to trust these guys.

Austin Peay
Austin Peay had a rough season but got hot at the right time. Center Chris Horton is capable of dominating against nearly anyone in the post and on the backboard, making them a very dangerous matchup. Their guards made a lot of shots late in the conference tournament, and they'll need to do a lot more of that to have any shot in a brutal first-round matchup against Kansas. I think this is a team that could have pulled a major upset with a slightly better seed, but Kansas will likely be too much.

Stony Brook
Stony Brook is led by power forward Jameel Warney, a dominant player that has a chance to play in the NBA. He carried his team in the conference championship, scoring 43 points to make the tournament for the first time in his career. He'll probably be able to put up some decent numbers against a weak Kentucky front line, but the Wildcat guards will be too much to handle.

Green Bay
Green Bay plays very good team defense, but they're likely too small to give Texas A&M much of a problem. Jordan Foust and Carrington Love give them nice offensive balance, but the Phoenix are just outmatched physically against the Aggies.

Stephen F. Austin
Stephen F. Austin dominated its conference with its suffocating pressure defense, and ironically it meets its major-conference mirror image in West Virginia. Both teams feed off turnovers and thrive in transition, but it's going to be tough for the Lumberjacks to deal with the Mountaineers' size and athleticism. Stephen F. Austin has a lot of NCAA experience to fall back on, and if West Virginia has a horrible shooting night there might be a chance.

Chattanooga
Chattanooga is deep and athletic, but they're likely too sloppy on both ends of the floor to pull an upset. They do have some decent shooters, but their offense is disorganized with nearly everything coming off the dribble. None of their players really look to pass, and even when they do they don't have the vision to make the right one. They can be quick and disruptive defensively at times, mixing in a zone that can confuse opponents and lead to turnovers. However, a patient offense that makes a few good passes will likely find itself with an open shot. Indiana will likely do a lot of this, and I look for the Hoosiers to win rather easily.

Cal State Bakersfield
This is the first time Cal State Bakersfield has made the NCAA tournament, and they did it in dramatic fashion with a buzzer-beating three against New Mexico State. They play pressure defense that sometimes extends to full court, and they have a balanced offensive attack to go with it. The Road Runners have some decent shooters and playmakers, but they're probably just not big or athletic enough to upset Oklahoma.

Weber St.
Weber State moves the ball very well on offense, resulting in high-percentage shots. Jeremy Senglin is a deadly outside shooter, and Joel Bolomboy dominates the boards down low. They've got capable shooters, but the size and athleticism difference will be tough to overcome against Xavier.

Hampton
Hampton has some talented scorers, but they're undersized and will likely get locked down by Virginia's suffocating defense.

Yale
Justin Sears was a dominant player in the Ivy League, but he'll need a lot of help from his teammates to take out Baylor. Yale has good ball movement resulting in lots of good looks, but their lack of size and athleticism will make it very difficult to knock off the Bears.

Middle Tennessee St.
Middle Tennessee State has decent size and athleticism and plays very hard, but they a lot of trouble finishing at times. They don't have a lot of guys that can get their own shot, and they'll likely be beaten soundly in round one.

UNC Asheville
UNC-Asheville did well to win their conference tournament, but they're likely just too small to hang with Villanova. They don't do anything exceptionally well and they can't really shoot, so I'm not sure how they could really hurt the Wildcats.

Holy Cross
At 14-19 Holy Cross had a very rough season, but they're finishing with a flurry by winning their conference tournament. The Crusaders are very small without a lot of athleticism, and while they play with great effort, it won't be enough to take out Oregon if they can get by Southern in Dayton.

Southern
Southern has a chance in their first four game in Dayton, but they're likely much too small to beat Oregon. They just don't have enough ways to hurt a team as talented as the Ducks.

Farleigh Dickinson

Farleigh Dickinson is an extremely young team without much size or athleticism. They play a weak 2-3 zone defense, and they really don't do anything at a high level. Darian Anderson and Earl Potts Jr. will form a nice backcourt for years to come, but this year's stay in the NCAA tournament will likely be a short one.

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