March Madness Is Here!

The calendar has finally turned to March, and the top 10-11 college basketball teams have really separated themselves from the rest of the pack.  For the most part I think only six teams have a legitimate chance to win the NCAA Tournament, with another four or five teams with a small chance if they get a few big breaks.

Right now my favorite to cut down the nets is Gonzaga.  They've come so close over the last few years, and this is probably the best team they've ever had.  This team is well balanced with depth at every position, and this year they have a go-to star in future NBA lottery pick Rui Hachimura.  They have Final Four experience, and it seems like this is the year they finally get it done.

Gonzaga dominated Duke early in the season before nearly squandering a big lead, and while they looked their worst in a loss at UNC in mid-December, I'd like the Zags' chances in a neutral-court rematch with everything on the line.  Their only other loss was a close one on a neutral floor to Tennessee, another final four contender.  They've blown through their conference with all double-figure wins, and while they certainly don't face the stiffest competition, I still think Gonzaga is the team to beat.

Other teams with a chance...

Tennessee

The Volunteers are a team full of upperclassmen.  They have the physical and mental toughness to make a run, and they have two college superstars (Grant Williams and Admiral Schofield) who aren't afraid to make big plays down the stretch.  They'll be a really tough out.

Duke

Their chances to win it all depend entirely on the health of Zion Williamson.  With him they have two of the best three players in college basketball, and they're capable of beating absolutely anyone.  These two guys are ruthless competitors and fearless with the game on the line.  They've come storming back from behind on several occasions this season, and if healthy they'll be very difficult to put away in the tournament.

Virginia

Virginia is undefeated against everyone not named Duke, and you know the Cavaliers are eager to atone for last year's first ever loss by a #1 seed to a #16.  They've got nearly everyone back from that team, including likely NBA first-round pick DeAndre Hunter, whose injury just prior to last year's NCAA tournament led to that major upset.  It appears that Virginia would have a very difficult time beating a healthy Duke team, but considering no one else has beaten them, they have to be taken seriously as a title contender.

North Carolina

The Tar Heels are once again playing great and tied for the lead atop the ACC.  At their best they've proven they're capable of beating anyone in the country, but they've also had several hiccups where they didn't play anywhere close to a championship level.  I'm concerned they'll have one of these lapses at some point during the tournament, and if it happens against one of the top teams they likely won't be able to overcome it.

Kentucky

Kentucky started the year with an embarrassing 34-point loss to Duke, but this team has come an extremely long way since that game.  This could be John Calipari's best coaching job to date, and he has this team playing as well as anyone.  The emergence of P.J. Washington as one of the nation's best players and clear leader of a team loaded with talented freshman has the Wildcats in contention to win another NCAA championship, but the health of super-senior Reid Travis will likely play a big role in whether or not they can go all the way.

While I think your 2019 National Champion will likely come from one of these six teams, a few other have a small chance to win it all...

Michigan State

Cassius Winston has been one of the best and most consistent players in the country, and his leadership gives them a chance to go all the way.  However, the Spartans have been banged up this season, and they'll need several players to get healthy to truly have a chance.

Michigan

Earlier in the season after the Wolverines embarrassed my Tar Heels, I thought Michigan was one of the favorites to win it all.  They've got experience after making it all the way to the championship game last season, and coach John Beilein is due to win a title soon.  Their lock-down defense gives them a chance, but they'll need veteran Charles Matthews to return and play at a high level if they hope to cut down the nets.

Virginia Tech

The injury to point guard Justin Robinson was a huge loss, but the Hokies have adjusted and are still playing great.  They've got pros in Nickeil Alexander-Walker, Kerry Blackshear Jr., and sleeper Ahmed Hill, and if they can get Robinson back I think they have a shot.  It's hard to really see Virginia Tech winning the championship since they've never been close, but crazier things have happened.

LSU

This LSU team is extremely talented, and they've recently had huge wins at Kentucky and at home against Tennessee, the latter without star point guard Tremont Waters.  The Tigers have the ability to beat anyone, but I'm afraid their propensity to get behind early and play closer games than they should will catch up with them at some point during the tournament.

Texas Tech

Texas Tech boasts one of the best defenses in the country, and they've got a great opportunity to win a share of the Big 12 title and keep Kansas from winning for the first time in 15 years.  They're led by future pro Jarrett Culver, an extremely good athlete who can dominate against even the best competition.  He's joined by a solid group of veterans, and while they haven't always had the offensive punch needed to go all the way, they've been hot recently and could find a way to win it all if they can continue scoring like they have in the last month.