The championship is still likely coming down to Gonzaga and Baylor, but other teams are still playing too...
Wednesday, January 27, 2021
Saturday, January 23, 2021
Under the Radar: Pittsburgh Quietly in the Mix for the ACC Title
Pittsburgh isn’t typically known for its college basketball program, but the Panthers have a realistic chance of winning the ACC title this year. Coming off a win against Duke and currently sitting at 8-2 overall and 4-1 in the conference, Pittsburgh could easily be undefeated in league play if their star player had been available in the loss to Louisville.
Justin Champagnie might be the most underrated player
in college basketball this season. The 6’6”
sophomore is leading the ACC in both scoring and rebounding at over 20 points and
13 boards per game, and his efficient play on both ends of the floor has his
team in position to compete for the league championship.
Champagnie is an elite athlete who dominates the glass
and challenges shots at the rim. He’s a
great finisher around the basket, and he has a knack for finding open space and
knocking down shots. He nearly always
makes the right play and is a great leader for this team.
Au’diese Toney is another incredibly long and athletic
NBA-caliber wing. He’s extremely
aggressive in all facets of the game, and together he and Champagnie pose a
major problem for opponents. Point guard
Xavier Johnson gives Pitt another strong athlete and reliable 3rd scorer
that helps give them a chance against almost any team in the country.
Under the Radar: Oklahoma State Has a Chance to Put Itself on the Map Today
Still unranked and somehow flying under the radar,
Oklahoma State has a huge opportunity to put itself on the map when it hosts
Baylor today. The Big 12 is without question
the nation’s best basketball conference this season, and while I think Baylor
is the class of the league and a notch above everyone else, Oklahoma State is
in the group just below them. The
Cowboys are coming off a win against Kansas, and if they can defend home court
once again against Baylor they’ll certainly get some nationwide recognition.
The lack of attention given to Oklahoma State this
season is a little surprising considering they’ve got a player who might hear
his name called first in the 2021 NBA Draft.
Cade Cunningham is one of college basketball’s best players, and as a 6’8”
point guard he’s causing a lot of problems for his opponents.
Cunningham does everything well and is a matchup
nightmare for pretty much everyone. He’s
a great ball-handler and passer who prefers to get his teammates involved, but
he has the ability to take the game over when it’s needed.
He can post-up smaller defenders down low, or beat
bigger defenders off the dribble. He’s a
great shooter from all over the floor, and he’s able to see over the defense to
find open teammates. He uses his size to
grab his share of rebounds and cause problems defensively. He’s certainly a guaranteed lottery pick.
Cunningham’s unselfishness and elite court vision results
in tremendous ball movement, as his teammates are inspired to follow his lead
and find the open man. Oklahoma State
surrounds Cunningham with some lightning quick athletes capable of putting
pressure on their opponents on both ends of the floor.
Unfortunately Oklahoma State is banned from postseason
play this season, but as an unranked team that I think is top ten material,
they’ll be plenty of opportunities to make some money betting on the Cowboys
this year. I wouldn’t ever want to bet
against Baylor, but I’d definitely be placing some wagers on Oklahoma State
more than a few times down the stretch this season.
Duke is Now Massively Underrated for a Change
The Duke Blue Devils just dropped out of the top 25 after 91 straight ranked weeks, and at 5-4 overall and 3-2 in the ACC they are now uncharacteristically underrated. If Duke can stay healthy from here on out, this should be a great opportunity to make some money betting on the Blue Devils.
Duke is coming off their second consecutive loss, but
those tight road losses were to two of the best teams in the ACC. The Blue Devils have also been playing
without their best player Jalen Johnson, who finally returned for a full game
against Pittsburgh and delivered a masterful performance, looking like a guy
who should be in the conversation for the #1 pick in the 2021 draft. Johnson finished with 24 points, 15 rebounds,
7 assists, 4 blocks, and 2 steals with 0 turnovers in 33 minutes, and although
Duke still lost the game, the Blue Devils have a chance to be a Final Four team
with Johnson on the floor.
As a UNC grad I’m certainly no Duke fan, but I’m
expecting a very big finish to the regular season for this Blue Devil squad. Freshmen guards D.J. Steward and Jeremy Roach
are starting to play much better and under control, giving Duke two quick and
aggressive ball-handling floor generals capable of scoring or setting up
teammates.
Matthew Hurt is the ACC’s 2nd leading
scorer and gives Duke a versatile inside/outside threat who can make shots from
all over the floor. If Duke can get
consistent contributions from either Wendell Moore Jr. or Jaemyn Brakefield on
the wing, this team has a chance to go on a big run and finish at or near the
top of the ACC.
With arguably the best coach of all-time and a handful
of highly-touted freshmen starting to figure things out, I’d recommend placing
some wagers on the Blue Devils from here on out, starting with their matchup at
Louisville on Saturday.
How to Bet the UNC Tar Heels: The Return of Anthony Harris Could Ignite a Run
Most people have probably never heard of Anthony Harris, but he’s an extremely talented combo guard who will immediately become UNC’s best player for the rest of the season. Harris is a redshirt freshman who impressed in limited action before going down with an injury last season, and he finally made his return in nine highly efficient minutes in Carolina’s loss at Florida State on Saturday.
While his brief time on the court didn’t result in a
Tar Heel win, it did show that Coach Roy Williams now has the tools to take
this team towards the top of the ACC and potentially to a deep run in the NCAA
Tournament. The only question is, will
he make the right adjustments to optimize his team’s success?
The North Carolina Tar Heels are no doubt a legendary
program, but at this point you’d have to say they’re in their second
consecutive slump year. At 8-5 overall
and 3-3 in the ACC, they’ve simply been a sloppy middle of the road team
struggling to do anything well, and that includes the coaching. Betting on UNC has been a losing proposition
so far.
UNC has the talent to be much better than they’ve been
up to this point in the season. This can
be said nearly every year at college basketball’s midway point, as Coach Roy
Williams takes a long time to figure out who his best players are and how much
time he should keep each player on the floor.
Betting the spread for UNC’s opponents early in the season will
typically make you money.
It usually takes at least half the season for Ol’ Roy
to reach something close to an optimal lineup and substitutional pattern, and
by this point the Tar Heels have usually dropped a few unnecessary games and
not come close to reaching their potential.
In-game strategic adjustments are usually few and far between.
Carolina’s extreme youth at the guard position has had
a lot to do with its sub-par play so far, but the lack of minutes for Day’Ron
Sharpe has been even more costly. I
thought Coach Williams was onto something when he finally started Sharpe in
UNC’s 9th game of the season at Georgia Tech, but Day’Ron still
played only 19 minutes in that one.
I thought surely Ol’ Roy had finally figured it out
when he started him again against Notre Dame and played him 29 minutes, with
Sharpe delivering 25 points and 10 rebounds and clearly being the best player
on the team. Sharpe was again obviously
one of UNC’s best players in a close win over Miami, finishing with 12 points
and 16 rebounds in another dominating performance inside.
Then Syracuse comes to town, and Day’Ron Sharpe went
back to the bench. I assume Roy did this
because of Cuse’s zone defense and Sharpe’s lack of experience against it, but
to truly get the most out of this Tar Heel team, Day’Ron Sharpe needs to be
playing maximum minutes, building confidence, and gaining as much experience as
possible for later on in the season.
I understand that UNC has two big men who’ve been
around longer, but Sharpe is by far the most talented and impactful player and
needs to be on the floor, especially to start the game. He’s going to make mistakes, but the more
learning opportunities he gets the better he will be when it really matters
late in the year. His toughness,
physicality, and relentless effort and energy are vital to UNC’s success, and
having him on the floor from the tip will help Carolina get off to faster
starts and give them chances to put teams away early.
With the ACC being the least talented it’s been in as
long as I can remember, UNC has a realistic chance to win every game left on
their schedule. Obviously I don’t
believe they’re being optimized nearly enough to run the table, but if Coach
Williams can figure out how to best use the tools at his disposable, UNC has a
chance to quickly raise its level of play and be a winning bet in most of its
remaining games.
A Final Four run isn’t likely, but if Carolina hands
Anthony Harris the keys and allows him to be the leader and go-to-guy, and
Day’Ron Sharpe starts and plays the majority of each game, UNC could elevate
itself into the second-tier group of teams just below Gonzaga and Baylor. If Roy Williams finds the right combinations,
taking Carolina and the over from here on will be a winning play.