How to Bet the UNC Tar Heels: The Return of Anthony Harris Could Ignite a Run

 Most people have probably never heard of Anthony Harris, but he’s an extremely talented combo guard who will immediately become UNC’s best player for the rest of the season.  Harris is a redshirt freshman who impressed in limited action before going down with an injury last season, and he finally made his return in nine highly efficient minutes in Carolina’s loss at Florida State on Saturday. 

While his brief time on the court didn’t result in a Tar Heel win, it did show that Coach Roy Williams now has the tools to take this team towards the top of the ACC and potentially to a deep run in the NCAA Tournament.  The only question is, will he make the right adjustments to optimize his team’s success?

The North Carolina Tar Heels are no doubt a legendary program, but at this point you’d have to say they’re in their second consecutive slump year.  At 8-5 overall and 3-3 in the ACC, they’ve simply been a sloppy middle of the road team struggling to do anything well, and that includes the coaching.  Betting on UNC has been a losing proposition so far.

UNC has the talent to be much better than they’ve been up to this point in the season.  This can be said nearly every year at college basketball’s midway point, as Coach Roy Williams takes a long time to figure out who his best players are and how much time he should keep each player on the floor.  Betting the spread for UNC’s opponents early in the season will typically make you money.

It usually takes at least half the season for Ol’ Roy to reach something close to an optimal lineup and substitutional pattern, and by this point the Tar Heels have usually dropped a few unnecessary games and not come close to reaching their potential.  In-game strategic adjustments are usually few and far between.

Carolina’s extreme youth at the guard position has had a lot to do with its sub-par play so far, but the lack of minutes for Day’Ron Sharpe has been even more costly.  I thought Coach Williams was onto something when he finally started Sharpe in UNC’s 9^th game of the season at Georgia Tech, but Day’Ron still played only 19 minutes in that one. 

I thought surely Ol’ Roy had finally figured it out when he started him again against Notre Dame and played him 29 minutes, with Sharpe delivering 25 points and 10 rebounds and clearly being the best player on the team.  Sharpe was again obviously one of UNC’s best players in a close win over Miami, finishing with 12 points and 16 rebounds in another dominating performance inside.

Then Syracuse comes to town, and Day’Ron Sharpe went back to the bench.  I assume Roy did this because of Cuse’s zone defense and Sharpe’s lack of experience against it, but to truly get the most out of this Tar Heel team, Day’Ron Sharpe needs to be playing maximum minutes, building confidence, and gaining as much experience as possible for later on in the season. 

I understand that UNC has two big men who’ve been around longer, but Sharpe is by far the most talented and impactful player and needs to be on the floor, especially to start the game.  He’s going to make mistakes, but the more learning opportunities he gets the better he will be when it really matters late in the year.  His toughness, physicality, and relentless effort and energy are vital to UNC’s success, and having him on the floor from the tip will help Carolina get off to faster starts and give them chances to put teams away early.

With the ACC being the least talented it’s been in as long as I can remember, UNC has a realistic chance to win every game left on their schedule.  Obviously I don’t believe they’re being optimized nearly enough to run the table, but if Coach Williams can figure out how to best use the tools at his disposable, UNC has a chance to quickly raise its level of play and be a winning bet in most of its remaining games. 

A Final Four run isn’t likely, but if Carolina hands Anthony Harris the keys and allows him to be the leader and go-to-guy, and Day’Ron Sharpe starts and plays the majority of each game, UNC could elevate itself into the second-tier group of teams just below Gonzaga and Baylor.  If Roy Williams finds the right combinations, taking Carolina and the over from here on will be a winning play.