College Basketball Teams: Overrated/Underrated, and Updated Top-33 Rankings

The overrated/underrated segment is back for a 2^nd season, where I’ll once again focus on teams that are misevaluated in the rankings and therefore provide good wagering opportunities.

 

Underrated college basketball teams to cash in on early this season

Michigan

Phil Martelli has taken over while Juwan Howard recovers from heart surgery, and with the way Michigan is playing right now it might be in everyone’s best interests to keep it this way going forward.  Despite losing two players to the NBA Draft and Hunter Dickinson to Kansas, the unranked Wolverines are playing like one of the best teams in the country.

Tennessee transfer Olivier Nkamhoua looks like an absolute beast this year, and 2^nd-year point guard Dug McDaniel appears to have taken a major leap forward as well.  McDaniel is lightning quick and has looked unguardable in the first two games, pushing the tempo and creating easy looks for himself and his teammates.  Tarris Reed Jr, Terrance Williams II, and Will Tschetter all return and will also play major roles this season.

Michigan has great size and skill and will sport one of the best front-courts in college basketball.  They also added solid depth pieces through the transfer portal in Nimari Burnette from Alabama and Tray Jackson from Seton Hall.  

The Wolverines should offer plenty of great opportunities to cash in on their underrated status until they find their way closer to the top of the rankings. One of these that presents a lot of value is taking them at +1600 to win the Battle 4 Atlantis.  While this tournament field is loaded with teams capable of taking down the title, Michigan has as good a chance as any of them, yet they’re listed as the 7^th favorite.   

Arkansas

No one used the transfer portal better than Arkansas this off-season.  The Razorbacks added Khalif Battle from Temple, Tramon Mark from Houston, and El Ellis from Louisville, and all have become instant impact players on what looks like one of the best teams in the country.  

Arkansas returns Devo Davis, a guy who has played a pivotal role and has come up huge in big moments over the past few years, and Trevon Brazile, who is coming off an ACL injury but has always looked the part of an NBA big man.

This team is fast, long, and super athletic.  They’ve got a bunch of good-ball handlers, great energy and tough pressure defense, and they’re a confident group that isn’t afraid to take and make the biggest shots.  They don’t always make great decisions, but they’re extremely tough and won’t ever stop fighting.  They’ve got a phenomenal home-court advantage in Bud Walton Arena in Fayetteville, and at their current ranking of #14 they’re definitely underrated.  A good opportunity will likely present itself when Duke comes to town on November 29^th.

 

Baylor

 

After losing its top-three scorers from last year’s squad, it would seem natural for a team to take a small step back.  Clearly the AP and Coach’s polls anticipated this too, as Baylor comes into the season ranked #20 and #17 respectively.  However, Scott Drew has put together a mixture of transfers, impressive freshmen, and returning players that look to have this year’s Baylor team right back in the championship conversations.

Baylor has great size, length, speed and athleticism.  Toledo transfer RayJ Dennis has been phenomenal through two games, putting up huge numbers and dominating both offensively and defensively.  He’s using his ball-handling and strength to create easy opportunities for himself and his teammates, and he’s already proving to be a clutch player with the game on the line.

Freshman sensation Ja’Kobe Walter looks like an NBA lottery pick, and the rest of the supporting cast appears to fit together extremely well.  This team is tough, competitive, and is actually my favorite to win the Big 12.  

I believe their recent win over Auburn was a true top-10 match-up, and I don’t think Baylor will be a team anyone wants to play come March.  I’m looking to back Baylor in most every game they play in 2023, especially in marquee matchups against Michigan State and Duke on December 16^th and 20^th.

 

Auburn

 

Despite coming into the season unranked and losing a tough neutral-site game to Baylor a couple nights ago, I still think this Auburn team is destined for success.  They’ve got great size, speed, and athleticism, and their energy and effort is relentless on both ends.  They’re tough, aggressive, and always attacking, and they’ve got a superstar player in freshman Aden Holloway. Although he came off the bench in the first two games, it’s pretty obvious that Holloway is the most gifted player on this team.

Johni Broome is extremely tough to deal with inside, using his size and strength to bully opponents and dominate the boards.  The Tigers have really good depth, lots of ball-handlers, and will apply a lot of pressure to their opponents this season.  They’ll be a good bet in the majority of their games for the next month at least, and currently present a great value in season-long betting odds.

 

USC

 

USC entered the season ranked #21 and #22 in the AP and Coach’s polls, but two games into the season it looks like they should be significantly higher. Freshman Isaiah Collier is as advertised, and looks to be in the mix to be the #1 player chosen in next year’s NBA Draft.  He’s dominating with strength and physicality, and he’s pretty much doing whatever he wants to early this season.  He’s teaming up with last year’s returning leading-scorer Boogie Ellis in the back-court, and together they’re forming one of the best guard combinations in the country.

Junior Kobe Johnson appears to have taken his game to another level, giving USC a trio of players who can compete with anyone.  Add in a couple big men with great size and length inside, and you’ve got a Trojan team that has a chance to win the Pac-12 this season.  They’ll need a few other guys to consistently step up to do it, but if they can find the depth they definitely have a good chance to outperform expectations this year.  

A December 2^nd matchup with Gonzaga will give us a good idea of where the Trojans stand, and at this point I’d likely be backing USC in that contest as an underdog on a neutral floor.  A wager on Isaiah Collier to win the Wooden Award at +3300 provides a lot of value as well.

2023-2024 College Basketball Preview

College Basketball Season Preview: UCONN is the favorite to repeat as National Champions

UCONN was dominant late last season, winning every NCAA tournament game by double digits in route to winning the 2023 National Championship. The scary thing is that despite losing several important pieces from that team, this year’s version might be even better.

The Huskies return my preseason favorite for Player of the Year, big man Donovan Clingan.  At 7’2” and 280 pounds, Clingan is an absolute monster, but he’s also extremely skilled.  He’s got great touch around the rim, dominates the boards, and has the court vision to find the open man when the defense collapses on him.  His size and length make it extremely difficult for any opponent to score around the basket, but he’s far from the only thing UCONN’s opponents will have to worry about this season.

UCONN has incredible depth. Both their starting unit and their bench might be better than any other team’s best five, and for that reason they are the biggest preseason favorite I’ve seen in a long time.  Obviously this is not the consensus opinion, but from what I’ve seen, the size, length, athleticism, and overall talent of this team is better than any college program I’ve seen, maybe ever.  

Coach Dan Hurley has figured something out after taking over this UCONN program in 2018.  He’s doing an amazing job recruiting and evaluating talent, so much so that it almost feels unfair not to mention the entire roster as players that will make a big impact this season.  

Freshman Stephon Castle is the highest-rated prized recruit, but he’s joined by fellow freshmen Jayden Ross, Soloman Ball, and a whole host of other players that make this year’s UCONN squad the favorite to cut down the nets and repeat as national champs this season.  They’ve got shooters all over the floor, many guys that can handle the ball and make plays for their teammates, and a never-ending wave of talented athletes that will make life difficult for their opponents on both ends of the floor.

Here’s a few opportunities I’ve seen to benefit from the success of this impressive UCONN team…

+300 to win the Big East, my favorite wager of the year

+510 to make the Final 4

+1600 to win the NCAA Championship and go back-to-back

 

Donovan Clingan +2500 to win Player of the Year

Miami has a great chance to make it 2 straight Final 4’s

Miami is fresh off its first final four appearance ever, but despite losing two of its best players to the NBA draft, this year’s team has a chance to be even better.  Norchad Omier should be dominant inside once again, and looks to have made major improvements on his shooting and ball-handling.  Nijel Pack also returns to offer his leadership and sharp-shooting on the perimeter, and he’s joined in the backcourt by guards Wooga Poplar and Bensley Joseph.

They’ll be supported by a deep and talented group of freshmen, transfers, and other young players that give this team a chance to win not only the ACC, but maybe even a national championship.  Matthew Cleveland is a versatile transfer from Florida State that should make a major impact right away, while little talked about freshman Kyshawn George looks poised to be one of the biggest surprises of the year.  George hasn’t been mentioned much alongside this year’s top incoming freshmen, but his combination of size, length, ball-handling, and basketball IQ make him a potential first-round NBA draft pick in my eyes.

The Hurricanes will also bring some serious firepower off the bench early in the season, as A.J. Casey, Michael Nwoko, and Christian Watson could all be starters on most teams.  Look for Miami to outplay their preseason #13 ranking and be among the top teams in the country this season.

 

UCLA has reloaded and will move up the rankings quickly

UCLA lost a lot from last year’s Sweet 16 team, including three players picked in the 2023 NBA Draft.  This year’s version will certainly be extremely young and inexperienced, which is probably why they’ll start the season unranked in the AP poll and #25 in the Coach’s rankings.  Despite these low ratings to start the season, I’m expecting Mick Cronin to rebuild quickly and have this team in the mix to win another Pac-12 championship.

The main reason I believe in this Bruin squad is their freshman point guard Sebastian Mack.  He wasn’t hyped up like many of the top incoming first-year players, but from what I’ve seen he has a chance to be the best point guard in college basketball this season.  

He’s strong and athletic and always stays on the attack.  He’s a great ball-handler who gets to the rim with ease, and he’s a fantastic finisher around the basket.  He’s a really good passer who finds the open man when a shot isn’t there for him, and he’s also an extremely tough defender.  Sebastian Mack does everything well and will just keep getting better.

Fellow freshman Ilane Fibleuil will also be a major contributor right away, along with the more heralded 7’3”, 240-pound Aday Mara.  Devin Williams is another first-year player that could end up playing a big role.  Right now he’s extremely thin and certainly needs to continue adding strength, but he’s got a great skill-set and has a bright future ahead of him.

The freshmen are joined by returning centers Adem Bona and Kenneth Nwuba, and sharp-shooting Utah transfer Lazar Stefanovic.  Mara, Bona, and Nwuba form one of the more intimidating front-court combos in the country and should make this Bruin team incredibly difficult to score against inside.  

This team might be young, but they’ve got all the tools to contend for another Pac-12 title, and potentially make another deep run in the NCAA Tournament. The Bruins will compete against an extremely difficult Maui Invitational field early this season, and while they come in with the 6^th best odds to win it, they have as good a chance as anyone and present a great value at +1200 to come away with the title.  I’d also take them at +375 to win the Pac-12 again.

Preseason Team Rankings

Final 2023 NBA Draft Rankings

Here's my final top 60 for the 2023 NBA Draft.  Obviously the rankings would be slightly different depending on which team they were being applied to, but this is the best general guide I could come up with.

Overrated/Underrated, 2023 NBA Draft

The overrated/underrated segment identifies either overrated, underrated, or a mix of both, either players or teams, and I’m gonna keep this one positive and focus on players that look to be underrated going into the 2023 NBA Draft.  I’m basing this on what I’ve seen in most mock drafts up to this point.

 

Underrated

 

Ausar Thompson

From my perspective Ausar Thompson is on level footing with anyone being considered for the #2 spot in this draft.  An argument could be made for him being the 2nd best prospect, and for that reason he’s one of the most underrated players coming into Thursday’s draft.  He’s smart, strong, physical, super-competitive, and has every skill you’d want on both ends of the floor.  I look for him to continue improving over the course of his career, and if I’m drafting anywhere in the top six spots I’m strongly considering him.

Amari Bailey

Amari Bailey is probably my most underrated player in relation to where he’s projected to get drafted.  Most mocks have him going somewhere in the early-to-mid 2nd round, where I view him as a lottery-level talent.  He’s an elite offensive player capable of doing everything well on that end of the floor, and if he’s able to be just a solid defender he’s got star potential in the NBA.  It took him a little while to find his place on a very good and experienced UCLA squad, but by season’s end he looked like the most talented player on the team.

Jordan Hawkins

Jordan Hawkins is another guy I think will fall much farther than he should this year.  I view him as the best shooter in this draft, and a guy who will be one of the best shooters in the NBA pretty much right away.  If he can develop a better handle and expand his game into a player who creates plays for his teammates, Hawkins has the ability to be one of the best players in this draft.  Even if he doesn’t, he’ll be a major problem for opposing defenses, and with some added strength I believe he’ll be a very good defender himself.

Noah Clowney

Noah Clowney possesses a versatile skill-set that is increasingly valuable in today’s NBA.  Big men who can handle a little, pass, and knock down open shots still pretty rare, but might be necessary now to win championships.  Clowney is a guy who can do a little of everything on both ends of the floor, and outside of Wembanyama, Clowney might be the best big in this draft.  His size, length, and athleticism give him all the tools to be a great defender along with his versatile offensive game, so I view him as a major steal anywhere outside of the lottery.

 

Tristan Vukcevic

Although the sample size is extremely small, I loved the little glimpse I saw into Vukcevic’s game at the NBA combine.  He displayed a lot of skill finishing around the basket and knocking down both threes and mid-range jumpers, and the tendency of these overseas players to get far less playing time than they should makes guys like this much tougher to evaluate.  For this reason, and the fact that a guy like Nikola Jokic was severely overlooked in the draft, I’d take a shot on Vukcevic if I was in need of a big man this year.

Trayce Jackson-Davis

Trayce Jackson-Davis was completely dominant in college, and while he is a little bit undersized as a big man in the NBA, his extremely versatile skill-set will make him an uncomfortable matchup for almost anyone.  He’s a great passer and ball-handler with incredible athleticism, and if he can develop a jump-shot he’s got a chance to be extremely good.  If nothing else he’ll be a tough rebounder and offensive facilitator, but a reliable jumper will certainly take his game to the next level.  I’d bet on him developing one sooner rather than later.

Dariq Whitehead

I thought Dariq Whitehead was the best player coming out of high school last year, and while injuries led to a very disappointing freshman season, they will also likely result in him falling too far in this draft.  Concerns about his foot are certainly valid, but if he’s able to get fully healthy he’s got a chance to be one of the best 10 players in this draft. He was shooting the three and defending extremely well late in the season, and if he can rediscover the attacking dribble-drive game he showed in high school, he could end up being a guy who was worthy of a lottery selection.

Julian Strawther

Strawther is a tremendous shooter with size, and he’s shown the ability to knock down shots in the game’s biggest moments.  He’s got a great floater and has flashed glimpses of creating off the dribble, and if he can continue expanding his game and adding strength he’s got a chance to be extremely good.  He’s being projected as an early-to-mid 2nd round selection, but he’s got a great chance to be a steal in that range.

Sidy Cissoko

It looks like Cissoko will likely be a 2nd round pick, but with his size, skill-set, and competitive drive he’s certainly got a chance to be a 1st-round talent.  He’s got a very good handle with the ability to create for himself and his teammates, and if he can consistently knock down open threes he could be extremely good.  I admittedly didn’t see a whole lot of him this year, but from the little I saw he looked like a player who certainly could become an NBA starter.

 

Jordan Miller

Jordan Miller has always been a quiet and unheralded player, but he’s got a complete game and should fit in extremely well anywhere he goes.  Miller is a guy who doesn’t need any plays called for him.  He simply finds a way to be effective, and the fact that he’s being projected at the tail end of the draft or not even drafted at all is pretty crazy to me.  He’s exactly what you want from a role player, and he may even end up being an NBA starter for a long time.

Kobe Brown

Kobe Brown is a sneaky good player with a well-rounded game.  He’s got great size and strength, and he can play both in the post and on the wing.  He’s a very good shooter and passer, and can even handle a little bit.  He’s also a good rebounder and finisher inside, and can defend multiple positions.  He’s projected to be a mid-to-late 2nd round selection, and in that range he’s definitely underrated.

Souley Boum

Souley Boum is an elite athlete with an extremely quick first step.  He’s got a great handle and can get to the rim at will, but he’s also proven to be a pretty good shooter as well, shooting 40% from three for the season.  He’s a good passer, rebounder, and has all the tools to be a good defender, so it’s kind of bizarre that he doesn’t even crack the top 60 in most mock drafts.

Hunter Tyson

Hunter Tyson is a great shooter with size, but he also does everything else pretty well.  He’s a great passer and rebounder, as well as a tough and intelligent defender.  He’s the perfect role player for an NBA team, which makes it all the more surprising that he’s typically either been a late second-round selection or left out of most mock drafts entirely.  He was on his way to an impressive showing in Portsmouth before getting injured, which is definitely keeping him further under the radar than he would have been.

Azoulas Tubelis

I really liked Tubelis early in the season, but his subpar performance at the combine mixed with Arizona’s early exit in the NCAA tournament really hurt his stock.  However, he still has an extremely versatile skill-set for someone his size.  He has a pretty good handle, good court vision, runs the floor extremely well, is a good finisher around the basket, and is a good shooter with three-point range.  It was a little surprising to see him struggle at the combine, but it’s always harder for the big men to look good on teams that are thrown together last-second in these showcase events.  Most mocks currently have him as either a late-second round pick or going undrafted, which is pretty surprising for someone who was so dominant in college this season.

Sir’Jabari Rice

Sir’Jabari does everything well, and if it weren’t for him being a little undersized I’d have him even higher.  He’s an extremely intelligent player on both ends of the floor. He’s a great shooter with one of the best pump fakes in the game at any level, and he’s also a really good finisher around the basket.  He’s got a decent handle with great court vision, and he’s also a phenomenal defender both on and off the ball.  He’s mostly listed as a late-second-round pick or undrafted, and at that level is extremely underrated.

Jaylen Clark

Clark’s injury late in the season has definitely hurt his draft stock.  He’s an elite defender with really good size and athleticism, and he rebounds extremely well for someone his size.  He’s shown the ability to do a little bit of everything offensively, but he wasn’t asked to take on a huge scoring role at UCLA.  However, he was extremely consistent before the injury, and he’s mostly being listed as a late-second or undrafted player, which is way too low.

Mojave King

Mojave King is a great role player.  He moves extremely well without the ball and has a knack for finding the open space.  He’s also a very good three-point shooter, as well as a tough defender, and while I didn’t see a whole lot of him this year, I loved what I saw at the Combine.  He’s mostly projected as a late-second-round pick, but I think a player with his size, athleticism, and skill-set should certainly be drafted higher.

 

 

 

 

 

2023 Portsmouth Invitational

With the conclusion of the college basketball season on Monday, all eyes now turn to the Portsmouth Invitational in Virginia next week, where 64 of the nation's best seniors will look to showcase their skills in the hopes of jump-starting their professional careers.  The official rosters haven't been released yet, but here's a list of the best potential invitees.  Come back next week for further coverage.

2023 NCAA Tournament Team Rankings, Bracket Guide

Use these rankings to guide you while filling out your 2023 NCAA Tournament Bracket!

If you're looking for potential upsets to pick, I've highlighted the lower seeds that I think have the best chance of winning their opening game.  8/9 and 7/10 matchups not considered upsets.  Good luck!

2023 NBA Draft Rankings Top 120, By Position

Heading into the 2023 NCAA Tournament, here are the top players to watch for this year's NBA Draft, ranked by position.