Sunday, November 12, 2023

College Basketball Teams: Overrated/Underrated, and Updated Top-33 Rankings

The overrated/underrated segment is back for a 2nd season, where I’ll once again focus on teams that are misevaluated in the rankings and therefore provide good wagering opportunities.

 

Underrated college basketball teams to cash in on early this season


Michigan


Phil Martelli has taken over while Juwan Howard recovers from heart surgery, and with the way Michigan is playing right now it might be in everyone’s best interests to keep it this way going forward.  Despite losing two players to the NBA Draft and Hunter Dickinson to Kansas, the unranked Wolverines are playing like one of the best teams in the country.

Tennessee transfer Olivier Nkamhoua looks like an absolute beast this year, and 2nd-year point guard Dug McDaniel appears to have taken a major leap forward as well.  McDaniel is lightning quick and has looked unguardable in the first two games, pushing the tempo and creating easy looks for himself and his teammates.  Tarris Reed Jr, Terrance Williams II, and Will Tschetter all return and will also play major roles this season.

Michigan has great size and skill and will sport one of the best front-courts in college basketball.  They also added solid depth pieces through the transfer portal in Nimari Burnette from Alabama and Tray Jackson from Seton Hall.  

The Wolverines should offer plenty of great opportunities to cash in on their underrated status until they find their way closer to the top of the rankings. One of these that presents a lot of value is taking them at +1600 to win the Battle 4 Atlantis.  While this tournament field is loaded with teams capable of taking down the title, Michigan has as good a chance as any of them, yet they’re listed as the 7th favorite.   


Arkansas


No one used the transfer portal better than Arkansas this off-season.  The Razorbacks added Khalif Battle from Temple, Tramon Mark from Houston, and El Ellis from Louisville, and all have become instant impact players on what looks like one of the best teams in the country.  

Arkansas returns Devo Davis, a guy who has played a pivotal role and has come up huge in big moments over the past few years, and Trevon Brazile, who is coming off an ACL injury but has always looked the part of an NBA big man.

This team is fast, long, and super athletic.  They’ve got a bunch of good-ball handlers, great energy and tough pressure defense, and they’re a confident group that isn’t afraid to take and make the biggest shots.  They don’t always make great decisions, but they’re extremely tough and won’t ever stop fighting.  They’ve got a phenomenal home-court advantage in Bud Walton Arena in Fayetteville, and at their current ranking of #14 they’re definitely underrated.  A good opportunity will likely present itself when Duke comes to town on November 29th.

 

Baylor

 

After losing its top-three scorers from last year’s squad, it would seem natural for a team to take a small step back.  Clearly the AP and Coach’s polls anticipated this too, as Baylor comes into the season ranked #20 and #17 respectively.  However, Scott Drew has put together a mixture of transfers, impressive freshmen, and returning players that look to have this year’s Baylor team right back in the championship conversations.

Baylor has great size, length, speed and athleticism.  Toledo transfer RayJ Dennis has been phenomenal through two games, putting up huge numbers and dominating both offensively and defensively.  He’s using his ball-handling and strength to create easy opportunities for himself and his teammates, and he’s already proving to be a clutch player with the game on the line.

Freshman sensation Ja’Kobe Walter looks like an NBA lottery pick, and the rest of the supporting cast appears to fit together extremely well.  This team is tough, competitive, and is actually my favorite to win the Big 12.  

I believe their recent win over Auburn was a true top-10 match-up, and I don’t think Baylor will be a team anyone wants to play come March.  I’m looking to back Baylor in most every game they play in 2023, especially in marquee matchups against Michigan State and Duke on December 16th and 20th.

 

Auburn

 

Despite coming into the season unranked and losing a tough neutral-site game to Baylor a couple nights ago, I still think this Auburn team is destined for success.  They’ve got great size, speed, and athleticism, and their energy and effort is relentless on both ends.  They’re tough, aggressive, and always attacking, and they’ve got a superstar player in freshman Aden Holloway. Although he came off the bench in the first two games, it’s pretty obvious that Holloway is the most gifted player on this team.

Johni Broome is extremely tough to deal with inside, using his size and strength to bully opponents and dominate the boards.  The Tigers have really good depth, lots of ball-handlers, and will apply a lot of pressure to their opponents this season.  They’ll be a good bet in the majority of their games for the next month at least, and currently present a great value in season-long betting odds.

 

USC

 

USC entered the season ranked #21 and #22 in the AP and Coach’s polls, but two games into the season it looks like they should be significantly higher. Freshman Isaiah Collier is as advertised, and looks to be in the mix to be the #1 player chosen in next year’s NBA Draft.  He’s dominating with strength and physicality, and he’s pretty much doing whatever he wants to early this season.  He’s teaming up with last year’s returning leading-scorer Boogie Ellis in the back-court, and together they’re forming one of the best guard combinations in the country.

Junior Kobe Johnson appears to have taken his game to another level, giving USC a trio of players who can compete with anyone.  Add in a couple big men with great size and length inside, and you’ve got a Trojan team that has a chance to win the Pac-12 this season.  They’ll need a few other guys to consistently step up to do it, but if they can find the depth they definitely have a good chance to outperform expectations this year.  

A December 2nd matchup with Gonzaga will give us a good idea of where the Trojans stand, and at this point I’d likely be backing USC in that contest as an underdog on a neutral floor.  A wager on Isaiah Collier to win the Wooden Award at +3300 provides a lot of value as well.





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