College Basketball Teams: Overrated/Underrated, and Updated Top-33 Rankings

The overrated/underrated segment is back for a 2^nd season, where I’ll once again focus on teams that are misevaluated in the rankings and therefore provide good wagering opportunities.

 

Underrated college basketball teams to cash in on early this season

Michigan

Phil Martelli has taken over while Juwan Howard recovers from heart surgery, and with the way Michigan is playing right now it might be in everyone’s best interests to keep it this way going forward.  Despite losing two players to the NBA Draft and Hunter Dickinson to Kansas, the unranked Wolverines are playing like one of the best teams in the country.

Tennessee transfer Olivier Nkamhoua looks like an absolute beast this year, and 2^nd-year point guard Dug McDaniel appears to have taken a major leap forward as well.  McDaniel is lightning quick and has looked unguardable in the first two games, pushing the tempo and creating easy looks for himself and his teammates.  Tarris Reed Jr, Terrance Williams II, and Will Tschetter all return and will also play major roles this season.

Michigan has great size and skill and will sport one of the best front-courts in college basketball.  They also added solid depth pieces through the transfer portal in Nimari Burnette from Alabama and Tray Jackson from Seton Hall.  

The Wolverines should offer plenty of great opportunities to cash in on their underrated status until they find their way closer to the top of the rankings. One of these that presents a lot of value is taking them at +1600 to win the Battle 4 Atlantis.  While this tournament field is loaded with teams capable of taking down the title, Michigan has as good a chance as any of them, yet they’re listed as the 7^th favorite.   

Arkansas

No one used the transfer portal better than Arkansas this off-season.  The Razorbacks added Khalif Battle from Temple, Tramon Mark from Houston, and El Ellis from Louisville, and all have become instant impact players on what looks like one of the best teams in the country.  

Arkansas returns Devo Davis, a guy who has played a pivotal role and has come up huge in big moments over the past few years, and Trevon Brazile, who is coming off an ACL injury but has always looked the part of an NBA big man.

This team is fast, long, and super athletic.  They’ve got a bunch of good-ball handlers, great energy and tough pressure defense, and they’re a confident group that isn’t afraid to take and make the biggest shots.  They don’t always make great decisions, but they’re extremely tough and won’t ever stop fighting.  They’ve got a phenomenal home-court advantage in Bud Walton Arena in Fayetteville, and at their current ranking of #14 they’re definitely underrated.  A good opportunity will likely present itself when Duke comes to town on November 29^th.

 

Baylor

 

After losing its top-three scorers from last year’s squad, it would seem natural for a team to take a small step back.  Clearly the AP and Coach’s polls anticipated this too, as Baylor comes into the season ranked #20 and #17 respectively.  However, Scott Drew has put together a mixture of transfers, impressive freshmen, and returning players that look to have this year’s Baylor team right back in the championship conversations.

Baylor has great size, length, speed and athleticism.  Toledo transfer RayJ Dennis has been phenomenal through two games, putting up huge numbers and dominating both offensively and defensively.  He’s using his ball-handling and strength to create easy opportunities for himself and his teammates, and he’s already proving to be a clutch player with the game on the line.

Freshman sensation Ja’Kobe Walter looks like an NBA lottery pick, and the rest of the supporting cast appears to fit together extremely well.  This team is tough, competitive, and is actually my favorite to win the Big 12.  

I believe their recent win over Auburn was a true top-10 match-up, and I don’t think Baylor will be a team anyone wants to play come March.  I’m looking to back Baylor in most every game they play in 2023, especially in marquee matchups against Michigan State and Duke on December 16^th and 20^th.

 

Auburn

 

Despite coming into the season unranked and losing a tough neutral-site game to Baylor a couple nights ago, I still think this Auburn team is destined for success.  They’ve got great size, speed, and athleticism, and their energy and effort is relentless on both ends.  They’re tough, aggressive, and always attacking, and they’ve got a superstar player in freshman Aden Holloway. Although he came off the bench in the first two games, it’s pretty obvious that Holloway is the most gifted player on this team.

Johni Broome is extremely tough to deal with inside, using his size and strength to bully opponents and dominate the boards.  The Tigers have really good depth, lots of ball-handlers, and will apply a lot of pressure to their opponents this season.  They’ll be a good bet in the majority of their games for the next month at least, and currently present a great value in season-long betting odds.

 

USC

 

USC entered the season ranked #21 and #22 in the AP and Coach’s polls, but two games into the season it looks like they should be significantly higher. Freshman Isaiah Collier is as advertised, and looks to be in the mix to be the #1 player chosen in next year’s NBA Draft.  He’s dominating with strength and physicality, and he’s pretty much doing whatever he wants to early this season.  He’s teaming up with last year’s returning leading-scorer Boogie Ellis in the back-court, and together they’re forming one of the best guard combinations in the country.

Junior Kobe Johnson appears to have taken his game to another level, giving USC a trio of players who can compete with anyone.  Add in a couple big men with great size and length inside, and you’ve got a Trojan team that has a chance to win the Pac-12 this season.  They’ll need a few other guys to consistently step up to do it, but if they can find the depth they definitely have a good chance to outperform expectations this year.  

A December 2^nd matchup with Gonzaga will give us a good idea of where the Trojans stand, and at this point I’d likely be backing USC in that contest as an underdog on a neutral floor.  A wager on Isaiah Collier to win the Wooden Award at +3300 provides a lot of value as well.

2023-2024 College Basketball Preview

College Basketball Season Preview: UCONN is the favorite to repeat as National Champions

UCONN was dominant late last season, winning every NCAA tournament game by double digits in route to winning the 2023 National Championship. The scary thing is that despite losing several important pieces from that team, this year’s version might be even better.

The Huskies return my preseason favorite for Player of the Year, big man Donovan Clingan.  At 7’2” and 280 pounds, Clingan is an absolute monster, but he’s also extremely skilled.  He’s got great touch around the rim, dominates the boards, and has the court vision to find the open man when the defense collapses on him.  His size and length make it extremely difficult for any opponent to score around the basket, but he’s far from the only thing UCONN’s opponents will have to worry about this season.

UCONN has incredible depth. Both their starting unit and their bench might be better than any other team’s best five, and for that reason they are the biggest preseason favorite I’ve seen in a long time.  Obviously this is not the consensus opinion, but from what I’ve seen, the size, length, athleticism, and overall talent of this team is better than any college program I’ve seen, maybe ever.  

Coach Dan Hurley has figured something out after taking over this UCONN program in 2018.  He’s doing an amazing job recruiting and evaluating talent, so much so that it almost feels unfair not to mention the entire roster as players that will make a big impact this season.  

Freshman Stephon Castle is the highest-rated prized recruit, but he’s joined by fellow freshmen Jayden Ross, Soloman Ball, and a whole host of other players that make this year’s UCONN squad the favorite to cut down the nets and repeat as national champs this season.  They’ve got shooters all over the floor, many guys that can handle the ball and make plays for their teammates, and a never-ending wave of talented athletes that will make life difficult for their opponents on both ends of the floor.

Here’s a few opportunities I’ve seen to benefit from the success of this impressive UCONN team…

+300 to win the Big East, my favorite wager of the year

+510 to make the Final 4

+1600 to win the NCAA Championship and go back-to-back

 

Donovan Clingan +2500 to win Player of the Year

Miami has a great chance to make it 2 straight Final 4’s

Miami is fresh off its first final four appearance ever, but despite losing two of its best players to the NBA draft, this year’s team has a chance to be even better.  Norchad Omier should be dominant inside once again, and looks to have made major improvements on his shooting and ball-handling.  Nijel Pack also returns to offer his leadership and sharp-shooting on the perimeter, and he’s joined in the backcourt by guards Wooga Poplar and Bensley Joseph.

They’ll be supported by a deep and talented group of freshmen, transfers, and other young players that give this team a chance to win not only the ACC, but maybe even a national championship.  Matthew Cleveland is a versatile transfer from Florida State that should make a major impact right away, while little talked about freshman Kyshawn George looks poised to be one of the biggest surprises of the year.  George hasn’t been mentioned much alongside this year’s top incoming freshmen, but his combination of size, length, ball-handling, and basketball IQ make him a potential first-round NBA draft pick in my eyes.

The Hurricanes will also bring some serious firepower off the bench early in the season, as A.J. Casey, Michael Nwoko, and Christian Watson could all be starters on most teams.  Look for Miami to outplay their preseason #13 ranking and be among the top teams in the country this season.

 

UCLA has reloaded and will move up the rankings quickly

UCLA lost a lot from last year’s Sweet 16 team, including three players picked in the 2023 NBA Draft.  This year’s version will certainly be extremely young and inexperienced, which is probably why they’ll start the season unranked in the AP poll and #25 in the Coach’s rankings.  Despite these low ratings to start the season, I’m expecting Mick Cronin to rebuild quickly and have this team in the mix to win another Pac-12 championship.

The main reason I believe in this Bruin squad is their freshman point guard Sebastian Mack.  He wasn’t hyped up like many of the top incoming first-year players, but from what I’ve seen he has a chance to be the best point guard in college basketball this season.  

He’s strong and athletic and always stays on the attack.  He’s a great ball-handler who gets to the rim with ease, and he’s a fantastic finisher around the basket.  He’s a really good passer who finds the open man when a shot isn’t there for him, and he’s also an extremely tough defender.  Sebastian Mack does everything well and will just keep getting better.

Fellow freshman Ilane Fibleuil will also be a major contributor right away, along with the more heralded 7’3”, 240-pound Aday Mara.  Devin Williams is another first-year player that could end up playing a big role.  Right now he’s extremely thin and certainly needs to continue adding strength, but he’s got a great skill-set and has a bright future ahead of him.

The freshmen are joined by returning centers Adem Bona and Kenneth Nwuba, and sharp-shooting Utah transfer Lazar Stefanovic.  Mara, Bona, and Nwuba form one of the more intimidating front-court combos in the country and should make this Bruin team incredibly difficult to score against inside.  

This team might be young, but they’ve got all the tools to contend for another Pac-12 title, and potentially make another deep run in the NCAA Tournament. The Bruins will compete against an extremely difficult Maui Invitational field early this season, and while they come in with the 6^th best odds to win it, they have as good a chance as anyone and present a great value at +1200 to come away with the title.  I’d also take them at +375 to win the Pac-12 again.

Preseason Team Rankings