Tuesday, November 12, 2024

Basketball Newsletter #2 2024

 Basketball Newsletter #2

November 12, 2024

 

Only a few days after Newsletter #1 we have a few adjustments. While I still believe Alabama is the deepest and most talented team in the country, they obviously still have a few things to iron out, specifically problems with their lineups and who to play.

 

I’m sure it gets tricky when you have veteran guys who’ve been in the program for years, getting pushed by the young studs who are certain to be future NBA players.  While having such great depth is typically a good thing, right now it’s taking a toll on Alabama’s efficiency and continuity. They’ve had a few tough matchups against underrated teams in Arkansas State and McNeese, but at this point they don’t look like the best team.

 

Last year we were beating the drums for UCONN before the season even started, never wavering from that pick all season long. This year is different. There is no clear-cut best team, and while I think Alabama has the greatest potential, several other teams would have an edge if the tournament started today.

 

One of those teams unfortunately is Duke. As a UNC grad I can never advocate for the Blue Devils as the championship favorites, but an argument can certainly be made that they have looked the best so far.  They haven’t truly been challenged however, and their big game tonight against Kentucky should tell us a lot.  Both Duke and Kentucky are ranked in my top-five coming into this matchup, and it will be interesting to see how Duke’s freshman handle their first huge test.

 

Auburn and Houston played a thriller on Saturday in what could easily be a final four preview.  Both teams are certainly among the best teams in the country defensively, and the emergence of Tahaad Pettiford as the go-to guy late in games could boost Auburn into the championship conversation.

 

With lots of parity at the top, I can’t help but think about UCONN and their chances at the three-peat.  There’s no question that Dan Hurley seems to have the college game figured out, so I wouldn’t bet against them once the tournament gets underway.  Soloman Ball looks to have taken his game to the next level and is now one of the best point guards in the nation, and with the relatively easy schedule UCONN has this year, I actually expect them to enter the NCAA tournament as the #1 overall seed once again.

 

At this point North Florida looks to be the most underrated team in the country and a great team to bet on for the foreseeable future.  They’ve got one of the most efficient offenses and shoot lights out from the perimeter, but they’re also led by a future NBA player in Josh Harris that reminds me of Jeremy Sochan.  He does all the dirty work on both ends of the floor and has already lead them to two impressive road wins at South Carolina and Georgia Tech.  They try to make it three straight with another big matchup at Georgia tonight, and as 11.5 point underdogs they seem like a near lock to cover that number.

 

Here’s the updated team rankings and players to watch list…





 



Friday, November 8, 2024

Basketball Newsletter #1

 Basketball Newsletter #1

November 8, 2024

 

 

College basketball has been underway for less than a week, but the efficiency of this scouting work allows for a pretty clear picture to be taking shape already.


UCONN enters this season looking for a three-peat, but it is Alabama that looks like a substantial favorite to build on their Final Four appearance last season and cut down the nets in San Antonio.  Several other teams will certainly have a shot to deny Nate Oats his first championship, but at this point Alabama looks deeper and more talented than everyone else by a fairly significant margin.


While it’s obviously still very early, the talent in college basketball seems to be as good as it has ever been.  This year’s freshman class is one of the strongest I’ve ever seen, and it’s complimented by a deep group of all ages that will make all NBA draft picks meaningful in 2025.

 

I’ve currently got three guys in the mix for the #1 spot: Igor Demin of BYU, Derik Queen of Maryland, and Tre Johnson of Texas.

 

I don’t say this lightly, but Igor Demin reminds me of Luka Doncic.  He’s even quicker with more bounce.  At 6’9” he has the size to see over the defense and get his shot off whenever he wants.  Much like Doncic he easily breaks down defenses and seemingly knows exactly when to pass or shoot, controlling the game with his timing and decision-making.

 

Derik Queen doesn’t have a ton of help at Maryland, but his game reminds me of Nikola Jokic.  He has incredible footwork, gets great position, and finishes everything around the rim.  He handles the ball extremely well and has the court vision to break down the defense and find the open man. He’s also a tough defender with his impeccable timing when contesting shots.

 

Tre Johnson is a scoring machine.  He has the ability to create for himself and his teammates off the dribble, but putting the ball in the basket is definitely what he does best.  He has a great handle and can score from anywhere on the floor.  He’s a very good shooter with deep range, but he’s also deadly getting all the way to the rim or pulling up for a mid-range jumper.  He also stays engaged defensively with quick feet and hands.

 

The ACC, SEC, and the Big 12 are all loaded with talent, so there won’t be many opportunities to relax for teams in these conferences hoping to make the NCAA tournament.


For those who like to put down a few wagers, I’ve got a few suggestions that look like good opportunities. (updated from my preseason list)

 

UCONN at +130 to win the Big East is a near lock.

 

Alabama will be tough to beat at +220 to win the SEC.

 

South Florida (12-1) to win the American.

 

BYU (30-1) to win the Big 12 in their first year in the league.  The road certainly won’t be easy, but BYU has the best player and a tough team capable of getting it done.  While I currently have Houston rated just a touch higher, their odds at +275 aren’t nearly as enticing.

 

The Big Ten is pretty wide open, but Illinois (10-1), USC (40-1), Michigan (10-1), and Ohio State (9-1) all look like good teams to take a shot on if your heart desires.

 

I cover all of college basketball, the NBA, and even some G-League, so feel free to reach out for more information, specific questions, or other requests.

 

 

Monday, November 4, 2024

College basketball is back!

The college basketball season gets underway today, can anyone stop Dan Hurley and UCONN from winning a 3rd straight championship?  The Huskies will certainly have a good shot at the three-peat, but Alabama looks poised to give them a much bigger challenge this season.


Here's some season-long futures bets I like for those who like to make a few wagers...


UCONN +130 to win the Big East

Washington 100-1 to win the Big Ten in their 1st year in the league

Arizona +800 to win the Big 12 in their 1st year in the league


9 lesser-known star players to watch


Zoom Diallo, Washington

Carter Bryant, Arizona

Soloman Ball, UCONN

Mouhamed Dioubate, Alabama

Derrion Reid, Alabama

L.J. Cason, Michigan

Donnie Freeman, Syracuse

Bryson Tucker, Indiana

Jalil Bethea, Miami


5 overrated teams early in the season


Kansas

Gonzaga

Tennessee

Purdue

Creighton


6 underrated teams to bet on early


Washington

Florida

Marquette

Xavier

USC

Louisville