Basketball Newsletter #1

 Basketball Newsletter #1

November 8, 2024

 

 

College basketball has been underway for less than a week, but the efficiency of this scouting work allows for a pretty clear picture to be taking shape already.

UCONN enters this season looking for a three-peat, but it is Alabama that looks like a substantial favorite to build on their Final Four appearance last season and cut down the nets in San Antonio.  Several other teams will certainly have a shot to deny Nate Oats his first championship, but at this point Alabama looks deeper and more talented than everyone else by a fairly significant margin.

While it’s obviously still very early, the talent in college basketball seems to be as good as it has ever been.  This year’s freshman class is one of the strongest I’ve ever seen, and it’s complimented by a deep group of all ages that will make all NBA draft picks meaningful in 2025.

 

I’ve currently got three guys in the mix for the #1 spot: Igor Demin of BYU, Derik Queen of Maryland, and Tre Johnson of Texas.

 

I don’t say this lightly, but Igor Demin reminds me of Luka Doncic.  He’s even quicker with more bounce.  At 6’9” he has the size to see over the defense and get his shot off whenever he wants.  Much like Doncic he easily breaks down defenses and seemingly knows exactly when to pass or shoot, controlling the game with his timing and decision-making.

 

Derik Queen doesn’t have a ton of help at Maryland, but his game reminds me of Nikola Jokic.  He has incredible footwork, gets great position, and finishes everything around the rim.  He handles the ball extremely well and has the court vision to break down the defense and find the open man. He’s also a tough defender with his impeccable timing when contesting shots.

 

Tre Johnson is a scoring machine.  He has the ability to create for himself and his teammates off the dribble, but putting the ball in the basket is definitely what he does best.  He has a great handle and can score from anywhere on the floor.  He’s a very good shooter with deep range, but he’s also deadly getting all the way to the rim or pulling up for a mid-range jumper.  He also stays engaged defensively with quick feet and hands.

 

The ACC, SEC, and the Big 12 are all loaded with talent, so there won’t be many opportunities to relax for teams in these conferences hoping to make the NCAA tournament.

For those who like to put down a few wagers, I’ve got a few suggestions that look like good opportunities. (updated from my preseason list)

 

UCONN at +130 to win the Big East is a near lock.

 

Alabama will be tough to beat at +220 to win the SEC.

 

South Florida (12-1) to win the American.

 

BYU (30-1) to win the Big 12 in their first year in the league.  The road certainly won’t be easy, but BYU has the best player and a tough team capable of getting it done.  While I currently have Houston rated just a touch higher, their odds at +275 aren’t nearly as enticing.

 

The Big Ten is pretty wide open, but Illinois (10-1), USC (40-1), Michigan (10-1), and Ohio State (9-1) all look like good teams to take a shot on if your heart desires.

 

I cover all of college basketball, the NBA, and even some G-League, so feel free to reach out for more information, specific questions, or other requests.