We’re obviously taking some chances here with bold predictions early in the season based on very little information, but one of the main objectives of this work is to see the big picture as early as possible. There will naturally be lots of big changes to the rankings in the first few weeks of the season as we accumulate more information and get a better feel for all the teams, but the entire landscape should be taking a more solid form by the time December rolls around.
A few new teams will be added to the “Championship Contenders” list in the next edition, and my apologies go out to St. Johns, who I’ve now removed from the overrated list after getting another look at them. They’re extremely tough and physical, and while they might not be the 5th best team in the country, they’re probably not as far away from that ranking as I originally thought. We’ll take a more in-depth look at a few other teams in the next article, but for now we’ll highlight a few season-long wagers worth considering based on what we’ve seen so far.
Worth a Wager
Illinois (+700) to win the Big Ten
Arizona (+800) to win the Big 12
Arkansas (+475) to win the SEC and (+2000) to win the National Championship
Longshots (probably won’t do it, but the odds are enticing!)
Baylor (+2500) to win the Big 12
Washington (+4000) to win the Big Ten
Wake Forest (+10000) to win the ACC
I like to sprinkle in a few of these season-long investments as the season unfolds, and these are the ones that seem to be offering the best value at this point. We’ll now stick our neck out again with another “Bet the House” segment, but this time we’re gonna back a team we have much more confidence in, the #1 team in our poll, the Arkansas Razorbacks.
Bet the House
Arkansas +3.5 @ Michigan St
The first edition of “Bet the House” didn’t go too well, and if this one doesn’t succeed I’ll be scrapping this segment and quitting betting on individual games altogether. Bethune-Cookman fell flat after an impressive first game, and Miami really stepped it up from their lackluster opening performance, showing once again how dangerous it is to assume that teams will look even remotely similar from game to game. Miami was extremely impressive defensively while putting up over 100 points, while Bethune-Cookman looked too small, a step slow, and emotionally-drained from their overtime loss a few days ago. That one was ugly.
We may have gotten a little carried away backing a WAY under-the-radar team too soon, so this time we’ll put our biggest wager on what we believe to be the best team in college basketball. With Arkansas holding down the top spot in our poll, and Michigan State failing to crack the top 32, I’m going with the Razorbacks to go into a tough environment and knock off the Spartans.
Typically the Breslin Center in East Lansing is one of the most difficult places to play, especially for a team led by freshmen, but this Arkansas squad is different. They’re just too talented and too deep to lose this game, and as 3.5-point underdogs, this one feels like an absolute lock.
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