Team and Player Rankings Entering the Sweet 16

 

College Basketball Takes Center Stage in February (repost)

Now that we’ve entered February and football season is coming to an end, it’s time for college basketball to once again take center stage. For me there are currently 6 main contenders to cut down the nets in Indianapolis this season, with several others having a small chance if everything were to break right. The majority of them have important games with major conference implications this weekend, but we’ll start with college basketball’s biggest rivalry and my favorite match-up of the year, Carolina vs. Duke. 

UNC-Duke 

Duke is still undefeated in the conference at 10-0, with UNC several games back at 6-3. However, Duke is far less unbeatable than their record suggests, and with 2 head-to-head match-ups left, the Tar Heels still have an outside shot to win the conference title. Both teams sit squarely in the “others with a slight chance to win the National Championship if everything breaks right” category. Duke was fortunate to face several opponents when their best player was out, including Kansas, Louisville, and SMU, but there’s no doubt the Blue Devils have been dominant in ACC play. Duke’s defense has been extremely good, and Carlos Boozer has relentlessly punished opponents with his high IQ game. The supporting cast has been good enough to keep getting wins, and their easy-as-possible ACC schedule will make them pretty difficult to catch in the regular-season race. 

The Tar Heels on the hand have had a much more difficult time, especially on the road, but it seems like they’re finding their footing lately after Hubert Davis finally made an important change to the starting lineup. The UNC staff has seemingly always been slow to figure things out strategically, but they finally stumbled onto a much more effective lineup than the one they’d been starting for most of the year, and the results have been obvious. They made the most important change with Derek Dixon taking over the point guard role from Kyan Evans, and while it seems they still don’t fully understand what their best 5-player lineup is, at least they’re getting closer. Dixon gives the Tar Heels much more size, toughness, and physicality at the point guard position, which has translated into much better defense and the team getting off to faster starts. 

Duke is due for a loss, and this game is a must-win for Carolina to have any chance of getting back in the ACC title race. While it’s obviously a long-shot, a small wager on UNC to win the conference at 100-1 odds seems like a fun way to use a dollar. They’d need to basically win out, which would include a sweep of Duke, but that’s definitely not completely out of the question. The talent is clearly there, but the Tar Heels will have to keep their foot on the gas and avoid the kind of lulls that nearly caused them to blow a 30-point 2nd half lead against Syracuse on Monday. It’s far more likely that they split with the Blue Devils and lose a couple more road games, while Duke mostly cruises to the regular season crown, but as a UNC alum I have to keep the dream alive. 

Illinois-Michigan St 

Illinois is coming off a huge win at Nebraska on Sunday, and they followed that up with a massive blowout of Northwestern on Wednesday. They’re currently tied for the Big Ten lead, while Michigan State is now 2 games back after losing consecutive games to Michigan and Minnesota. The Breslin Center is one of the toughest road environments in college basketball, but Michigan handled it well while holding on to win, and the Illini will need to match that effort to keep pace with the Wolverines. Illinois has shown they’re more than capable of winning in a hostile environment, and they’re easily the far more talented offensive team in this match-up. Michigan State plays with great toughness and physicality, but they can struggle offensively at times, and they’ll need a better-than-average shooting day to knock off the Illini. 

UCONN-St. John’s 

UCONN is undefeated in Big East play at 12-0, while St. John’s is 2nd at 10-1. 1st place will be on the line, and although this game will be played in Madison Square Garden, I still expect UCONN to win and take full control of the conference race. UCONN has much more experience playing together and they’re the far better offensive team, and I look for the Huskies to make a statement and fully assert themselves as legitimate National Championship contenders. 

Florida-Texas A&M 

Texas A&M is the surprise co-leader of the SEC at 7-2, but their loss Wednesday night at Alabama means this match-up with Florida is now for sole position of 1st place in the conference. The Aggies will be returning home where they’re still undefeated in league play, but Florida is the much bigger and more talented team, and the Gators are coming off a massive blowout win over the same Alabama team that just beat Texas A&M. Texas A&M is a tough team that plays extremely hard, but I fully expect Florida to win this one on the road and take the lead in the conference title chase. No matter who comes out on top in this match-up, a bunch of teams will still be lurking closely behind in the wide-open SEC. 

Tennessee-Kentucky 

2 of those teams trailing closely behind the conference leaders are Tennessee and Kentucky, and they’ll square off for the 2nd time this season in Lexington on Saturday night. Similar to the Illinois-Michigan State match-up, Tennessee comes in as the tougher more physical team, while Kentucky is more talented offensively and full of potential future NBA players. Kentucky won the 1st match-up in Knoxville by 2 points just 3 weeks ago, and while I’m sure the Vols will be hungry for revenge, Kentucky seems to be playing better now than they were then. The Wildcats played a really good game in a big win at Arkansas, then followed that up with an easy win over Oklahoma, and while I still think Florida is the favorite to win the SEC title, there’s some substantial value on a small wager on Kentucky to win it at 25-1 odds. They’re only a game behind Florida with 2 head-to-head match-ups remaining, but they’ll likely need to win this one if they hope to have a chance to win the league. 

Houston-BYU 

I still see Houston as the favorite to win not only the Big 12 title, but also the National Championship. They don’t necessarily have to win this game to do either, but I still think they’ll go into Provo and knock off BYU. Houston is currently 3-1 to win the conference and 11-1 to win it all, and I think the odds we’ll only get worse from here. Houston’s defense is once again extremely dominant, but they’ve got far more offensive firepower than usual this season. Freshman Kingston Flemings is shooting up draft boards and forcing himself into the conversation as one of the top picks in the 2026 NBA Draft, and I look for he and the Cougars defense to cause problems for BYU and their top pro prospect, AJ Dybantsa. 

Battle to be the #1 NBA Draft Pick 

As many as 6 players are still in the mix for #1 in my opinion, but right now AJ Dybantsa is not one of them. If Darryn Peterson wasn’t having injury issues he would be the favorite, but my concerns grow each time he sits out, and lately he’s been spending more time on the bench than on the court. 

I’m a little biased towards Caleb Wilson considering how many times I’ve watched him play, but his absurd length and athleticism paired with his extreme intensity and effort on both ends of the floor gives him arguably the highest ceiling of the group overall. Keaton Wagler’s size, length, and skill at the point guard position makes him tough to pass over as well, and his recent clutch play and offensive outbursts have him looking like an NBA star for years to come. 

Kingston Flemings and Darius Acuff of Arkansas are 2 more elite point guards who can certainly make a claim to the #1 pick, while Cameron Boozer at Duke might be the most ready to step and and play right away. Boozer is an extremely smart basketball player and reminds me of Domantas Sabonis. However, he can struggle against elite size and length, which he’ll face most every night at the next level, so I probably won’t really have him in the mix for #1 on my draft board. No matter who ends up going 1st, it’s a great year to have a top-10 pick in the NBA Draft, and an extremely deep pool of talented players to choose from overall.