UNC-Duke
Duke is still
undefeated in the conference at 10-0, with UNC several games back at 6-3.
However, Duke is far less unbeatable than their record suggests, and with 2
head-to-head match-ups left, the Tar Heels still have an outside shot to win the
conference title. Both teams sit squarely in the “others with a slight chance to
win the National Championship if everything breaks right” category. Duke was
fortunate to face several opponents when their best player was out, including
Kansas, Louisville, and SMU, but there’s no doubt the Blue Devils have been
dominant in ACC play. Duke’s defense has been extremely good, and Carlos Boozer
has relentlessly punished opponents with his high IQ game. The supporting cast
has been good enough to keep getting wins, and their easy-as-possible ACC
schedule will make them pretty difficult to catch in the regular-season race.
The Tar Heels on the hand have had a much more difficult time, especially on the
road, but it seems like they’re finding their footing lately after Hubert Davis
finally made an important change to the starting lineup. The UNC staff has
seemingly always been slow to figure things out strategically, but they finally
stumbled onto a much more effective lineup than the one they’d been starting for
most of the year, and the results have been obvious. They made the most
important change with Derek Dixon taking over the point guard role from Kyan
Evans, and while it seems they still don’t fully understand what their best
5-player lineup is, at least they’re getting closer. Dixon gives the Tar Heels
much more size, toughness, and physicality at the point guard position, which
has translated into much better defense and the team getting off to faster
starts.
Duke is due for a loss, and this game is a must-win for Carolina to have
any chance of getting back in the ACC title race. While it’s obviously a
long-shot, a small wager on UNC to win the conference at 100-1 odds seems like a
fun way to use a dollar. They’d need to basically win out, which would include a
sweep of Duke, but that’s definitely not completely out of the question. The
talent is clearly there, but the Tar Heels will have to keep their foot on the
gas and avoid the kind of lulls that nearly caused them to blow a 30-point 2nd
half lead against Syracuse on Monday. It’s far more likely that they split with
the Blue Devils and lose a couple more road games, while Duke mostly cruises to
the regular season crown, but as a UNC alum I have to keep the dream alive.
Illinois-Michigan St
Illinois is coming off a huge win at Nebraska on Sunday,
and they followed that up with a massive blowout of Northwestern on Wednesday.
They’re currently tied for the Big Ten lead, while Michigan State is now 2 games
back after losing consecutive games to Michigan and Minnesota. The Breslin
Center is one of the toughest road environments in college basketball, but
Michigan handled it well while holding on to win, and the Illini will need to
match that effort to keep pace with the Wolverines. Illinois has shown they’re
more than capable of winning in a hostile environment, and they’re easily the
far more talented offensive team in this match-up. Michigan State plays with
great toughness and physicality, but they can struggle offensively at times, and
they’ll need a better-than-average shooting day to knock off the Illini.
UCONN-St. John’s
UCONN is undefeated in Big East play at 12-0, while St. John’s
is 2nd at 10-1. 1st place will be on the line, and although this game will be
played in Madison Square Garden, I still expect UCONN to win and take full
control of the conference race. UCONN has much more experience playing together
and they’re the far better offensive team, and I look for the Huskies to make a
statement and fully assert themselves as legitimate National Championship
contenders.
Florida-Texas A&M
Texas A&M is the surprise co-leader of the SEC at
7-2, but their loss Wednesday night at Alabama means this match-up with Florida
is now for sole position of 1st place in the conference. The Aggies will be
returning home where they’re still undefeated in league play, but Florida is the
much bigger and more talented team, and the Gators are coming off a massive
blowout win over the same Alabama team that just beat Texas A&M. Texas A&M is a
tough team that plays extremely hard, but I fully expect Florida to win this one
on the road and take the lead in the conference title chase. No matter who comes
out on top in this match-up, a bunch of teams will still be lurking closely
behind in the wide-open SEC.
Tennessee-Kentucky
2 of those teams trailing
closely behind the conference leaders are Tennessee and Kentucky, and they’ll
square off for the 2nd time this season in Lexington on Saturday night. Similar
to the Illinois-Michigan State match-up, Tennessee comes in as the tougher more
physical team, while Kentucky is more talented offensively and full of potential
future NBA players. Kentucky won the 1st match-up in Knoxville by 2 points just
3 weeks ago, and while I’m sure the Vols will be hungry for revenge, Kentucky
seems to be playing better now than they were then. The Wildcats played a really
good game in a big win at Arkansas, then followed that up with an easy win over
Oklahoma, and while I still think Florida is the favorite to win the SEC title,
there’s some substantial value on a small wager on Kentucky to win it at 25-1
odds. They’re only a game behind Florida with 2 head-to-head match-ups
remaining, but they’ll likely need to win this one if they hope to have a chance
to win the league.
Houston-BYU
I still see Houston as the favorite to win not
only the Big 12 title, but also the National Championship. They don’t
necessarily have to win this game to do either, but I still think they’ll go
into Provo and knock off BYU. Houston is currently 3-1 to win the conference and
11-1 to win it all, and I think the odds we’ll only get worse from here.
Houston’s defense is once again extremely dominant, but they’ve got far more
offensive firepower than usual this season. Freshman Kingston Flemings is
shooting up draft boards and forcing himself into the conversation as one of the
top picks in the 2026 NBA Draft, and I look for he and the Cougars defense to
cause problems for BYU and their top pro prospect, AJ Dybantsa.
Battle to be the
#1 NBA Draft Pick
As many as 6 players are still in the mix for #1 in my
opinion, but right now AJ Dybantsa is not one of them. If Darryn Peterson wasn’t
having injury issues he would be the favorite, but my concerns grow each time he
sits out, and lately he’s been spending more time on the bench than on the
court.
I’m a little biased towards Caleb Wilson considering how many times I’ve
watched him play, but his absurd length and athleticism paired with his extreme
intensity and effort on both ends of the floor gives him arguably the highest
ceiling of the group overall. Keaton Wagler’s size, length, and skill at the
point guard position makes him tough to pass over as well, and his recent clutch
play and offensive outbursts have him looking like an NBA star for years to
come.
Kingston Flemings and Darius Acuff of Arkansas are 2 more elite point
guards who can certainly make a claim to the #1 pick, while Cameron Boozer at
Duke might be the most ready to step and and play right away. Boozer is an
extremely smart basketball player and reminds me of Domantas Sabonis. However,
he can struggle against elite size and length, which he’ll face most every night
at the next level, so I probably won’t really have him in the mix for #1 on my
draft board. No matter who ends up going 1st, it’s a great year to have a top-10
pick in the NBA Draft, and an extremely deep pool of talented players to choose
from overall.
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