Saving His Best for Last

There is no doubt that Harrison Barnes has fallen short of the enormous expectations everyone had for him coming into his freshman season at UNC, with one exception.  When there's not much time left and the game is in the balance, Barnes has been nothing short of spectacular.  He struck again with his late game heroics on Wednesday night at Miami, hitting two huge jumpers, including the game-winning 3 pointer with 6 seconds left, allowing the Heels to escape Miami with a 74-71 win.  This kid has been unbelievably clutch when his team needed it most, and it's only a matter of time before he picks it up for the rest of the game.

UNC once again dug a big hole early on, but recovered by halftime to enter the break tied at 39.  Tyler Zeller was completely exposed by Reggie Johnson, and if I'm an NBA scout Zeller probably just tumbled all the way off my draft board.  He is just too weak to deal with strong, talented big men inside, and he was clearly outplayed by Johnson on both sides of the court.  Justin Knox was much more effective in half the minutes, and probably needs to get more playing time when the opposing team has a guy like Johnson inside.

The Tar Heels won despite 13 three pointers for the Hurricanes on 46% shooting.  Dexter Strickland had a very good game, as he stuck to what he's good at (slashing to the basket) and avoided taking any shots from the outside.  I got down on Dexter a little bit after the last few games, but I'm okay with him getting a few more minutes now after I've calmed down a bit.  He still plays entirely too much however, and needs to give up some of that time to Reggie Bullock.  I just see glimpses of greatness in Bullock, and he gives us a big-time scoring punch, rebounding help, and much more length on the perimeter from the shooting guard position.

UNC really hasn't played anywhere near its potential all year, but they've squeaked by time and time again.  This win was absolutely huge, as Miami has much more talent than their record suggests, and beating them on the road is quite an accomplishment.  This season could have gone completely in the toilet without the three huge comebacks in ACC play, but these Heels are definitely resilient and are looking like an NCAA tournament team.

N.C. State comes to the Dean Dome Saturday at 2pm after blowing a 19-point lead at Clemson on Tuesday night, and the Heels should take care of business.  State has not looked very good, but they do have a great player in Tracy Smith inside.  He is similar to Johnson in that he has great strength inside, but he's much more talented offensively and not quite as big.  If I'm Roy Williams I probably give Justin Knox some more minutes to counter the strength of Smith inside, and I make sure to limit Scott Wood's looks from the 3-point line.  The Wolfpack has little else to damage UNC, and this should be an easy win.  However, judging by the way this season has gone, it wouldn't shock me if this one came down to the wire just like all the rest.

Update from Down Under

The Australian Open has produced a few up and coming stars and several injuries to some top players, but for the most part things have gone according to plan. The one major surprise happened early this morning when Rafael Nadal lost to David Ferrer.  Nadal had an injury and clearly wasn't his usual self, and it cost him a chance to go for the "Rafa Slam" when he lost in straight sets to his fellow countryman.

Since I didn't go out on a limb with my picks for the Australian Open, they turned out pretty well except for the injuries to finalists in both the men's and women's draw.  I got 3 of the 4 semi-finalists correct on the women's side, and only 2 on the men's side, although I could make a claim to 3 since I saw Murray as a co-favorite with Soderling in his quarter. The one I missed on the women's side was my eventual champion Venus Williams, who sustained a leg injury and was forced to retire for the first time in her career in a major.  Li Na ended up making it to the semis instead, and faces Caroline Wozniacki with a spot in the finals on the line.  Despite the absence of Nadal, the men's draw still features 4 of the top 7 players in the world, so we should be in for some great tennis from here on out.  Here are the matchups, with my updated predictions.

Can't believe I left Vera off the "Ladies" post...won't happen again

Women's
Li Na (9) over Caroline Wozniacki (1)

Vera Zvonareva (2) over Kim Clijsters (3)

I'm picking Li Na over Caroline Wozniacki because she hits the ball harder, and it seems Caroline is vulnerable with an injury to her leg.  Wozniacki barely escaped her last match, having to come from behind to take out Francesca Schiavone in 3 sets. 

In the second semifinal, I'm going with Vera Zvonareva to reach her 3rd Grand Slam final by avenging her U.S. Open final loss to Kim Clijsters.  Clijsters seems to be making way too many errors, but she seems to thrive under heavy pressure so it wouldn't shock me to see her pick up her game.

Li Na

Finals
Li Na (9) over Vera Zvonareva (2)
In the final I'm taking Li Na to win her first Grand Slam title over Vera Zvonareva.  Zvonareva has lost badly in 2 major finals, and each time she seemed to break down mentally under the pressure.  I'm betting on Na Li handling her nerves and managing her emotions better, and taking down her first Grand Slam singles title.  She was close last year, losing in the semifinals to Serena Williams.  With Serena out, I think Li Na takes full advantage and becomes the first woman from China to win a major.

Men's

Andy Murray

Andy Murray (5) over David Ferrer (7)

Roger Federer (2) over Novak Djokovic (3)

Federer-Djokovic could and should be the match of the tournament.  Both Djokovic and Federer have played great tennis throughout the tournament, and I fully expect this one to be as close as they come.  Djokovic won his only major here in 2008, but it's tough to bet against Roger Federer in a Grand Slam match.  Djokovic is playing better than I've ever seen him, and it definitely wouldn't surprise me at all to see him get through, but I'm going to give a slight edge to Federer simply because he's done it so many times before.

In the second semifinal, I'm picking last year's runner-up Andy Murray to make it back to the Australian Open final with a win over David Ferrer.  This is nearly uncharted territory for Ferrer, as he has only made one grand slam semifinal before, and that was at the U.S. Open in 2007.  Ferrer's a great player, but I think Murray has the game and experience to get past him and set up a rematch of last year's championship match.


Finals
Roger Federer (2) over Andy Murray (5)
Murray is one of the only players to have a winning head-to-head record against Roger Federer, as he is 8-6 all-time against the best player in tennis history.  However, Federer has won both matchups with the Scot in Grand Slam matches, including last year's straight set victory in the Australian Open final.  The win would be Roger's 5th Australian Open title and 17th major title overall, and would further distance him from everyone else to ever play the game.

Roger Federer

Getting Warmer...

Roy Williams got a little closer to playing the right guys today, but there are still several changes that need to be made for this team to perform at an optimal level.  UNC was without Leslie McDonald in the game tonight against Clemson, which opened up a few more minutes for other players to show what they could.   Reggie Bullock took full advantage.

Reggie has been so pedestrian the last few games that he almost made me forget about him.  I've been singing his praises all year, but his last three games made me forget how vital I thought he was to this team.  You have to give Reggie a break since he never gets much time on the court, so finding a rhythm has been very hard for him, especially recently.  Roy gave him an extended amount of playing time in the first half, and Bullock responded by scoring 16 of his 18 points.  He's just so smooth, and has every offensive skill in the book.  Reggie is also a force on the boards and in the passing lanes, as he had several steals leading to breakaway layups, and he nearly always pulls down 5 rebounds in his limited minutes.  There's no question he is a starter for UNC, and I think he starts off at the shooting guard position.  Having an extremely long, 6'7" shooting guard will be a huge advantage for the Tar Heels, and the sooner he's playing big minutes the better.  After going 3-16 with only 6 points in an averaging of 13 minutes/game over his last 3 games, Bullock shot 6-10 in route to scoring 18 points against the Tigers.  He's in the mold of Kevin Durant.

Now for the Kendall Marshall debate.  Marshall got his first start tonight, but he only played 22 minutes so really nothing has changed.  In fact, moving Kendall up to play with the first team actually kept him from playing many minutes alongside another of UNC's best players, Reggie Bullock.  I can sense a great chemistry will develop between these two, and I want to see it evolve for as many minutes per game as possible.  Three other major things I noticed tonight slightly changed my minute distribution suggestion.

1)Larry Drew was great off the bench.  He played one of his best games of the season, as he appeared more confident and aggressive.  This might have earned him a few more minutes in my book, but UNC just has too many more talented players, so it's going to be tough for him.

2)John Henson and Tyler Zeller completely distinguished themselves from Justin Knox in my eyes tonight.  I was thinking about using these guys almost interchangeably, but I now lean toward much heavier minutes for Henson and Zeller.  They both just have more versatility, and when it comes right down to it are just more talented basketball players.  Seeing them play more with Marshall made this obvious.

3)Dexter Strickland plays entirely too much.  I get it...he's a good defender.  He plays extremely hard, and he's very fast.  Only problem is he's out of control about 75% of the time on offense, and has almost no chance of making a 3-pointer.  He had two or three good games in a row against sub-par competition, but just as in the case of Larry Drew, there are just more talented guys on the team that should be playing ahead of him.

In basketball, you need to be playing your best players for as much time as possible.  This hasn't been anywhere close to happening all season for the Tar Heels, and Roy Williams still hasn't figured it out.  Here's what he has to do, and here's what he did tonight (minutes in parentheses).  Once these guys start getting to play together consistently, just watch as UNC gets better and better.

Kendall Marshall 35 minutes (22)        
Reggie Bullock 30 (18)
John Henson 30 (23)
Tyler Zeller 30 (28)
Harrison Barnes 25 (30)
Leslie McDonald 25 (0, injury)
Justin Knox 10 (18)
Larry Drew 8 (23)
Dexter Strickland 7 (30)
Justin Watts 0 (8, he got injured tonight)

Justin Watts got injured tonight, and while I don't want him to be hurt, he really shouldn't play much. His role should be limited to a spark off the bench to wake our guys up when they're sluggish, as the rest of the things he provides can be done from the bench or in the locker room.  He's apparently a great leader for these young kids, and he should only play as many minutes as it takes to keep that going.  He's a great athlete, but just not a very good basketball player.

Since I seem to always be criticizing the coach, I feel like I need to say a few nice things about him.  It was nice to see Roy Williams come rushing on to the floor when Watts was injured.  This is one of the greatest things about him.  He truly cares about all of his players, and he's a great ambassador for the UNC program.  The man is a great mentor and a good spokesman, but he can't put the right players on the floor.  I don't want Roy gone, but I don't want him deciding who to play and when to make substitutions either.  Not exactly sure what the solution is there, but paying a guy millions of dollars to coach a team when he can't even do something so essential is a major problem.

Ladies of the Australian Open

The sport of tennis is severely underrated in the U.S., so I decided to give my readers another reason to watch besides just the tennis.  The game is loaded with beautiful women, and I decided to dedicate a post to honor the best female players to watch at this year's Australian Open.

#1 Caroline Wozniacki: she's the world's #1 player, and she's absolutely gorgeous with an unbelievable, care-free attitude.  She just might be perfect.

                                                                                                                                                                                                                      

#2 Ana Ivanovic

#3 Gisela Dulko

# 4 Maria Sharapova

#5 Victoria Azarenka

#6 Maria Kirilenko

#7 Sorana Cirstea

#8 Ashley Harkleroad:  tune in early in the tournament or you'll miss her.

#10 Sania Mirza

#9 Alona Bondarenko

Hope for a sighting...Two ladies that won't be playing in the tournament, but might be seen around the grounds in Melbourne...Anna Kournikova, and Andy Roddick's wife and SI cover girl Brooklyn Decker.

Anna Kournikova

Anna Kournikova

Anna Kournikova

Anna Kournikova

Brooklyn Decker

2011 Australian Open

Men

The men's game is extremely top heavy, with only a few players having a real shot at winning the Australian Open title.  Here is a list of the contenders in each quarter of the draw, with the projected winners (*) and short explanation.

1st qtr: *Rafael Nadal (1), David Ferrer (7), David Nalbandian (27), Mikhail Youzhny (10), John Isner (20)

2nd qtr: *Robin Soderling (4), Andy Murray (5), Jo-Wilfried Tsonga (13), Jurgen Melzer (11), Marcos Baghdatis (21),  

3rd qtr: *Novak Djokovic (3), FernandoVerdasco (9), Tomas Berdych (6), Victor Troicki (29), Richard Gasquet (28),

4th qtr: *Roger Federer (2), Andy Roddick (8), Stanislas Wawrinka (19), Gael Monfils (12)

I picked the top 4 seeds to make the semi-finals, as I just think the top 5 are far and away better than everyone else (it wouldn't surprise me if Murray made it by beating Soderling).  I couldn't justify picking anyone else.  These guys just play at a different level, and barring an injury, they should all make it deep.

In the semifinals I'm taking Rafael Nadal over Robin Soderling, and Roger Federer over Novak Djokovic.  These two guys are the best of all-time, and it's a treat to watch them play every time they take the court, especially against each other.  These two just play points that wouldn't be possible with any other players, and I hope to see them play with the "Rafa Slam" on the line.  I'll pick a winner before they play, but right now I can't decide.

Women

As clear cut as the top of the men's game is, women's tennis is completely the opposite.  With Serena Williams out with an injury, the women's title is up for grabs, and ten or more women can realistically hope to win it. 

1st qtr: *Caroline Wozniacki (1), Justine Henin (11), Yanina Wickmayer (21), Svetlana Kuznetsova (23), Marion Bartoli (15),  Francesca Schiavone (6)

2nd qtr: *Venus Williams (4), Maria Sharapova (14), Na Li (9), Victoria Azarenka (8), Andrea Petkovic (30)

3rd qtr:  *Kim Clijsters (3), Nadia Petrova (13), Ana Ivanovic (19), Greta Arn (unseeded), Jelena Jankovic (7)

4th qtr:  *Vera Zvonareva (2),  Samantha Stosur (5), Flavia Pennetta (22), Petra Kvitova (25), Lucie Safarova (31), Shahar Peer (10), Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova (16), Maria Kirilenko (18)

To my surprise, I ended up picking the top 4 seeds on the women's side too.  I'm not nearly as confident in these picks, since I've watched much more men's tennis than women's, and I think many of the other women have a shot to get there.  I wouldn't be surprised to see:


1st qtr: Henin, Wickmayer, or Kuznetsova instead of Wozniacki

2nd qtr: Sharapova, Li, or Azarenka instead of Williams

3rd qtr: Petrova or Ivanovic instead of Clijsters

4th qtr: It wouldn't shock me to see any of the ones I listed above come out of this quarter, although I think Zvonareva and Stosur are clear favorites.

In the semis I'm taking Venus Williams over Caroline Wozniacki, and Kim Clijsters over Vera Zvonareva.  For some reason I just think Venus really wants to take advantage of Serena being out of this one, and I think she takes home her 8th major championship title with a win over Clijsters in the final.


Next to come...Best Reasons to Watch Women's Tennis

I Just Don't Get It

A wise man once said that the definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results (His name was Albert).  Never has this saying been more applicable.  How a guy as competitive as Roy Williams can continually do the same thing after his team digs a big hole early with the starters each game, then gets back in it with the 2nd team, completely baffles me.  Does he not see the trend here?  We spot the opponent a solid 10 points early each game, putting added pressure on ourselves later when we are forced to fight back from behind.  One thing a young team definitely doesn't need more of is pressure.  Why give the opponent confidence right off the bat by letting them jump out to a quick lead?  Why not just start Marshall, jump on the opposition from the tip, and win games going away?  At least try a different starting lineup and see what happens.  Why would you not?


What's that old saying?  Fool me once, shame...shame on you...(awkward pause)...You fool me we can't be fooled again??? (Wait that was President Bush's revised version).  Roy has to see the differences in this team when Marshall is on the floor and when he's not.  If he watches any tape at all, the major flaws in this team should jump out like an autostereogram.   Everyone gets much better looks at the basket when Marshall is in, and easier shots equal more points.  Not only that, but he keeps going with the 5-in, 5-out strategy which clearly isn't working, doesn't allow anyone to get in a good rhythm, and keeps a few of the top players from ever getting a chance to play with Marshall.  I wanted to lay off the Coach a little and avoid talking about this anymore, but that just isn't possible.  It's the single biggest mistake being made by the Tar Heels this season, and there is only one guy that can fix it (clearly if his assistants are saying anything about this, Roy is being too stubborn to listen).

The preponderance of the fan-vote seems to be with Kendall Marshall playing more, but I don't even think the casual fan understands just how good Marshall is.  He's going to have his freshman moments, and going on the road in the ACC can be very difficult, but he is already leaps and bounds ahead of Drew II in every facet of the game.  There is no need to sit Marshall and let him "learn" from Drew, as there is nothing Drew does better than Marshall, and therefore nothing to teach.  Marshall clearly has a much higher "basketball IQ," and if anything Drew needs to watch Marshall and try to learn from him.  The last two championship point guards at UNC have been extremely good players, but neither Felton nor Lawson had the vision that Marshall does already (this is saying a lot considering Felton is my favorite Carolina player of all time).  Marshall just has incredible instincts that can't be taught, and it's time to give him the reins and let him run with them. 

Here's my solution to the problem, with suggested estimated minutes per player...

Marshall 35
Barnes 27
Henson 26
McDonald 25
Zeller 25
Knox 22
Bullock 20
Strickland 12
Drew 5
Watts 3




While this minute distribution could lead to the transfer of Larry Drew, so be it.  He just doesn't have what it takes to be a starting point guard for a UNC team, and if he can't accept a backup role, then good riddance.  On another note, the athletic director has to be taking a serious look at Roy Williams.  While he has 2 championships, those teams each had 5 or more professionals on the roster, so the wins can hardly be attributed to him.  The last two years have clearly shown a lack of ability to recognize differences in talent, adjust in-game strategies, and put the team in the best position to be successful.  That is after all the main thing you pay a coach to do, and he has failed in all these aspects for the past two years.  You just can't rationalize paying a guy millions of dollars to perform worse than any knowledgeable die hard UNC basketball fan would.  While Roy does many good things for the program, something has to be done to fix this.  My suggestion is to make the coaching staff like one in the NFL, with offensive and defensive coordinators, and let Coach Williams be one of but not the only voice on the sidelines.  Someone else clearly needs to be in charge of lineups and in-game substitutions, because he is doing a horrible, horrible job in that department.  I'm sure this would never fly with a man as accomplished, proud, and stubborn as Roy Williams, but just because someone is a big name doesn't necessarily mean they're the best.  I guarantee there are thousands of people out there who could put together better lineups and strategies than Williams, and it's time we consider looking for one of those people to help right the ship.

The Heels have a quick turnaround with Clemson coming to town on Tuesday at 8pm.  The Heels are 54-0 all time against the Tigers in Chapel Hill, and it would be a shame to blow that record this year.  Clemson is coming off a 25-point win over the Georgia Tech team that just beat UNC by 20, so the Tar Heels will need a much better showing if they hope to keep the streak intact.  I look for a bounce back game for UNC, and a 0-55 mark for Clemson when they leave Chapel Hill Tuesday night.

Kendall Marshall Gets His Opportunity, Clearly Validates my Argument

This isn't about Larry Drew II.  It's about Kendall Marshall being the most essential part of the success of the 2010-2011 UNC basketball team. After Thursday's 9 point, 9 assist, 0 turnover performance against a good Virginia Tech team, this fact has never been more obvious.  While the stats are very impressive, much of what Marshall brings to the team doesn't show up in the stat sheet.  His incredible vision leads to many easy buckets where he didn't necessarily make the last pass before the basket, but his play was the main reason the basket occurred.  Zeller and Henson finally got the opportunity to play big minutes with Marshall on the floor, and they both flourished with the improved looks they received.  Zeller finished the game with 16 points and 9 rebounds and an abundance of short half hook shots, while Henson had 17 points and 8 boards with 4 blocks and a plethora of huge dunks.  Marshall knows where everyone likes the ball, and he gets them in positions to be successful.  Our offense operates with much more efficiency when he's in there, and we play with more swagger and energy along with it.

After escaping these first 2 ACC games at 2-0 and Duke looking at least a little vulnerable, I'm suddenly getting more and more excited about this season.  While I still think Duke will win the ACC, these early season results have at least provided a little hope to the rest of the conference that there is a chance that someone else could do it...as long as Kyrie Irving doesn't return from injury.

For the Heels to win on a night when Malcolm Delaney was in an unbelievable zone and led the Hokies to a 16-point first half lead, it really says a lot about how this team handles adversity.  Even with Bullock and McDonald shooting horribly all game from the outside, UNC never panicked, and for the 2nd game in a row they came from behind to win a close game.  Barnes made some horrible plays earlier in the game, but he showed he's not afraid to take the big shots and was extremely clutch down the stretch. Since I've bashed on Roy for playing the wrong players, I'll give him some credit where its due.  He is a magician at knowing the right things to say to keep his teams in the right mindset, regardless of the circumstances.  This team could have folded, but I'm sure the coach had a lot to do with keeping this team calm and convincing them they would be in the game at the end if they just kept playing.  No one was shooting well, but the entire team maintained confidence and pulled it out.  If we can just get the right players in the game for the right amount of time, this team could be really good.

Georgia Tech is up next (Sunday 7:45), and while they always play the Heels tough in Atlanta, UNC is the clear favorite and should win the game.  The Yellow Jackets just took a 25-point drubbing at the hands of Clemson, so a Heels' loss here would be a bad one.  I'm excited to see the starting lineup on Sunday night, as the man with striking similarities to Jason Kidd has to be in there...Right?

UNC-Virginia: ACC Opener

UNC got off to a 1-0 start in the ACC, but it wasn't pretty, and it certainly wasn't easy.  Just when I thought Roy Williams might have figured out that Kendall Marshall is better than Larry Drew II, he reverted back to his old ways.  Here are the stat lines of the two point guards...

Larry Drew II:  24 minutes, 2 assists, 3 turnovers, 1-5 shooting, 5 points

Kendall Marshall: 16 minutes, 2 assists, 0 turnovers, 2-5 shooting, 5 points

Game after game, Kendall Marshall plays much better than Larry Drew, yet Drew continues to be the starter and play the majority of the minutes at the point.  I'm not sure what games Roy Williams is watching, because it's clear to me that Marshall is much better, and he typically matches or surpasses Drew's output in less time while making fewer careless turnovers.  Some people say that Larry Drew is a better defender, but I question that as well.  It seems to me that it's just another catchphrase that people get in their head, then just repeat over and over and convince themselves that it's true (these kinds of things are typically found in politics).  Even if Drew was a better defender, he's certainly not enough of an upgrade on that end of the floor to make up for how bad he is on offense.  He has no confidence, rarely even looks to penetrate, and has no chance at making a shot from the outside.  He doesn't create much for his teammates, and he's just not a threat to do much of anything when the Heels have the ball.  This is the last time I'm going to talk about this, as I've clearly made my point and I'm getting tired of repeating the same thing after every single game.

Besides the botched decision at point guard, Williams' substitution patterns have been suspect all year long.  He has consistently replaced the five players on the floor with five new ones after only three or four minutes of game time, assuring that no one on the team can ever find a rhythm on the court.  With around 17 minutes to go in the 2nd half against Virginia, he finally decided to let some guys play for 6-8 straight minutes, and the Heels clawed back during that time and won the game.  I hope he noticed how that worked, but I'm not counting on it.  He needs to watch how Coach K only plays his best players for the majority of the game and take some notes.

While I like a lot of things that Roy Williams has done at Carolina, he has had a very hard time for the past two years just putting the right guys on the court.  Virginia is not a good team and this game really shouldn't have been close, but Roy seems intent on giving everyone similar minutes rather than playing the best players for the majority of the game.  Although Harrison Barnes has struggled so far this season, I still believe he is our best and most talented player.  Unfortunately for him, he has been on the court with Kendall Marshall for less than 5 minutes all season, and that has really hurt the quality of shots he's been getting.  While some of the shot selection has to be attributed to Barnes himself (he needs to drive much more often rather than settling for fade away jumpers), I just don't understand how those two haven't been on the court together hardly at all this year, as I think they would be a great combination on the floor.  If I was coaching, I'd start Marshall-Bullock-Barnes-Henson-Zeller, with McDonald, Knox, and Strickland playing big minutes off the bench.  Drew and Watts would play sparingly, only coming in if someone was dead tired.  I do like what Watts has done this year as an energy spark off the bench, but he just isn't talented enough to get the same kind of minutes as a guy like Reggie Bullock.  Strickland has come back to earth after a few great games and is back to flying around out of control, and it's time for him to take a back seat to the bigger more talented players behind him.

It probably seems that I want Roy Williams fired, but that isn't the case.  I love what Roy Williams does for the University of North Carolina, and I have no doubt that he loves the school.  He has carried on the legacy of Dean Smith, making sure that the Carolina family sticks together and never loses that bond.  I imagine he's a very good mentor for college kids, and he's obviously a great motivator and speaker (speech maker, interviewer, talker, however you want to word it), as well as an extreme competitor.  Despite this, he clearly lacks a lot of vision when it comes to in-game changes and adapting to what's happening on the floor, and that is a major part of what he's getting paid millions of dollars to do.  I'm as big a fan of UNC athletics as anyone in the world, and it really hurts me to see us struggle so much unnecessarily and not be able to do anything about it.  Maybe one day someone will read my ideas and hire me as an assistant, as my basketball skill set would be a perfect compliment to Roy Williams.  That, after all, is the major reason I started this blog, and I'm going to continue it until someone sees it and decides they have to take a chance.  Spread the word ;)

NFL Playoff Predictions

It's been a while since I made an NFL post.  This can be fully attributed to the lack of success of both my fantasy football teams, and the Carolina Panthers.  I missed the playoffs in both of my fantasy leagues for the first time ever, and my Panthers are the worst team in football, struggling to a pathetic 2-14 finish in a season where they could hardly move the ball at all on offense.  I lost interest about 4-5 weeks ago, but the playoffs are here now and I will be watching.  Here's a brief analysis of each team, followed by my playoff picks...

AFC
1. New England Patriots 14-2
The Patriots have won 8 straight games and are the favorite to win it all. 

2. Pittsburgh Steelers 12-4
The Steelers have a nasty defense, and the offense isn't too shabby either.  They definitely have a chance to win it.


3. Indianapolis Colts 10-6
The Colts do have Peyton Manning, but they have been struggling mightily of late.  They've been banged up all year, and while both running backs have returned, the losses of Dallas Clark and Austin Collie might be too to overcome.  The defense hasn't been very good, and I think they go out in the first round.

4. Kansas City Chiefs 10-6
It's great to see Kansas City in the playoffs.  They looked like they might blow it for a minute, but the injury to Antonio Gates of San Diego assured the Chiefs of a spot.  They feature the league's best rushing attack, but I expect them to lose in the first round to the playoff-tested Ravens.

5. Baltimore Ravens 12-4
The Ravens have been just squeaking by for the past few weeks, but they've won 4 in a row.  Baltimore is a little banged up, but they have great players on both sides of the ball and are definitely a threat to win the title if things fall the right way.

6. New York Jets 11-5
The Jets talk a big game, and they sometimes back it up.  Their defense is definitely one of the league's best, but QB Mark Sanchez is a big liability.  They will need him to play great and avoid making big mistakes if they hope to win the Super Bowl.

AFC Predictions

Wildcard Round
Jets over Colts
Ravens over Chiefs

Divisional Round

Patriots over Jets
Steelers over Ravens

AFC Championship
PATRIOTS over STEELERS

The Patriots have just been too dominant this season, and I can't justify picking anyone else to make the Super Bowl from the AFC.


NFC
1. Atlanta Falcons 13-3
The Falcons were the beneficiary of a relatively easy schedule this season.  No doubt they are a good team, but they aren't particularly great in any category and I don't expect to see them win a title just yet.  Nearly every game they had this year was close, and I just think they will drop one before they reach the Super Bowl.


2. Chicago Bears 11-5
The Bears also capitalized on an easy schedule this season, as they lost to most of the good teams they played.  They have a great run defense, but have been very mediocre in most aspects of the game.  I look for them to lose their first game, unless they somehow get to play the Seahawks.


3. Philadelphia Eagles 10-6
This team is extremely dangerous.  They've struggled the past few weeks, but if everyone is healthy and they can put everything together, you could definitely see the Eagles in the Super Bowl.  I'm thinking they might be a year away.

4. Seattle Seahawks 7-9
The Seahawks are just lucky to be here.  Someone had to win the pathetic NFC West, and Seattle got it done by beating the St. Louis Rams in the final game of the season.  They do have a home game, but I fully expect them to get blown out by the defending champion Saints.


5. New Orleans Saints 11-5
The Saints won it all last year and are a threat to get back to the Super Bowl again.  As long as Drew Brees is out there, New Orleans will have a great chance to win any game they play.  However, the losses of RB's Pierre Thomas and Chris Ivory for the season will have a large impact, and the Saints will need a huge contribution from Reggie Bush if they hope to repeat.

6. Green Bay Packers 10-6
The Packers have a solid D and one of the league's best quarterbacks, Aaron Rodgers.  I picked the Packers to reach the Super Bowl before the season began, but after they lost Ryan Grant for the season almost immediately it looked like they weren't going to recover.  Well here they are, sneaking in to the playoffs as a very scary 6 seed, with as good a chance to make it to the Super Bowl as anyone else in the NFC.  They have a very difficult first round matchup in Philadelphia, but if they get by that one I think they can get there.

NFC Predictions

Wildcard Round
Saints over Seahawks
Packers over Eagles

Divisional Round

Packers over Falcons
Saints over Bears

NFC Championship
SAINTS over PACKERS

In a matchup of both wild card teams, I'm going with the defending-champion Saints, mainly because they will be the home team.  I think these teams are very evenly matched, and if the Packers were the home team I would have gone with them.

SUPER BOWL
PATRIOTS over Saints

The Patriots have been hands-down the best team in the NFL for the 2nd half of the season, and I think they continue their winning ways and win yet another Super Bowl in a tight game against the Saints.  New England has the league's best coach, the clutchest quarterback, and a hodgepodge group of no-namers who get the job done.  Great showing by New Orleans to get back to the Super Bowl for the 2nd consecutive year, but  injuries in the running game catch up to them and cause them to fall just short of a repeat.  Tom Brady wins a 4th championship, and 3rd Super Bowl MVP award.

Tom Brady, another Super Bowl MVP