The men's game is extremely top heavy, with only a few players having a real shot at winning the Australian Open title. Here is a list of the contenders in each quarter of the draw, with the projected winners (*) and short explanation.
1st qtr: *Rafael Nadal (1), David Ferrer (7), David Nalbandian (27), Mikhail Youzhny (10), John Isner (20)2nd qtr: *Robin Soderling (4), Andy Murray (5), Jo-Wilfried Tsonga (13), Jurgen Melzer (11), Marcos Baghdatis (21),
3rd qtr: *Novak Djokovic (3), FernandoVerdasco (9), Tomas Berdych (6), Victor Troicki (29), Richard Gasquet (28),
4th qtr: *Roger Federer (2), Andy Roddick (8), Stanislas Wawrinka (19), Gael Monfils (12)
I picked the top 4 seeds to make the semi-finals, as I just think the top 5 are far and away better than everyone else (it wouldn't surprise me if Murray made it by beating Soderling). I couldn't justify picking anyone else. These guys just play at a different level, and barring an injury, they should all make it deep.
In the semifinals I'm taking Rafael Nadal over Robin Soderling, and Roger Federer over Novak Djokovic. These two guys are the best of all-time, and it's a treat to watch them play every time they take the court, especially against each other. These two just play points that wouldn't be possible with any other players, and I hope to see them play with the "Rafa Slam" on the line. I'll pick a winner before they play, but right now I can't decide.
As clear cut as the top of the men's game is, women's tennis is completely the opposite. With Serena Williams out with an injury, the women's title is up for grabs, and ten or more women can realistically hope to win it.
1st qtr: *Caroline Wozniacki (1), Justine Henin (11), Yanina Wickmayer (21), Svetlana Kuznetsova (23), Marion Bartoli (15), Francesca Schiavone (6)
2nd qtr: *Venus Williams (4), Maria Sharapova (14), Na Li (9), Victoria Azarenka (8), Andrea Petkovic (30)
4th qtr: *Vera Zvonareva (2), Samantha Stosur (5), Flavia Pennetta (22), Petra Kvitova (25), Lucie Safarova (31), Shahar Peer (10), Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova (16), Maria Kirilenko (18)
To my surprise, I ended up picking the top 4 seeds on the women's side too. I'm not nearly as confident in these picks, since I've watched much more men's tennis than women's, and I think many of the other women have a shot to get there. I wouldn't be surprised to see:
1st qtr: Henin, Wickmayer, or Kuznetsova instead of Wozniacki
2nd qtr: Sharapova, Li, or Azarenka instead of Williams
3rd qtr: Petrova or Ivanovic instead of Clijsters
4th qtr: It wouldn't shock me to see any of the ones I listed above come out of this quarter, although I think Zvonareva and Stosur are clear favorites.
In the semis I'm taking Venus Williams over Caroline Wozniacki, and Kim Clijsters over Vera Zvonareva. For some reason I just think Venus really wants to take advantage of Serena being out of this one, and I think she takes home her 8th major championship title with a win over Clijsters in the final.
Next to come...Best Reasons to Watch Women's Tennis
1 comment:
Look out, world, Andy Roddick can run...Although this example hearkens to a time when Federer and Nadal weren't insurmountably dominant, it's worth noting that Roddick's movement was pretty exceptional in his run to winning the U.S. Open and claiming the #1 ranking at year end in 2003. He fell earlier that summer at Wimbledon in a "who knew this guy would be so good" final to Federer, the first of such encounters in the hallowed final across the pond, and the negativity surrounding that loss ebbed when the world realized that Federer was a cross between Kal-El and Pete Sampras. Roddick has weathered the hurricane of a tumultuous middling point in his career, and much like countryman Mardy Fish, appears to be hitting his stride at 29. He lost defending his title in Brisbane as an Aussie tune-up, losing 6-3, 7-5 to Soderling, but Roddick's rugged build is made for the grueling conditions of Melbourne more-so than most other players. His 2nd round performance was much cleaner than Federer's, albeit against lesser competition, and much more invigorating than Nadal's early road (essentially a first round walkover). Roddick's commitment to movement and ability to hang in late in sets has helped him roll to a 6-0 set count through two rounds, a number that will prove invaluable as the wear and tear Down Under groans along. His winning probabilities when claiming the first set in a match are absolutely astounding, and though it seems logical those numbers would be higher, he's won nearly 91% of the time after winning set 1, and won just 35% of the time when failing to do so. My thoughts immediately trail into his massive first set victory over Roger Federer at their epic Wimbledon final in 2009, and were it not for a high backhand volley dump job on set point, he would've claimed a 2 sets-love lead on Federer, undoubtedly going on to win. Roddick was unfit in much of 2010, and this season could mark a tenacious rebound by a man who knows his days are numbered. I predict a massive clash between Federer and Roddick in the quarters, and the seeding committee has done a masterful job in offering up such tantalizing quarters as Berdych/Djokovic and Murray/Soderling to boot. Nadal seems destined for the semis with little resistance, but I'll take my triple quarter-pounder on the barbie for now...
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