The Australian Open has produced a few up and coming stars and several injuries to some top players, but for the most part things have gone according to plan. The one major surprise happened early this morning when Rafael Nadal lost to David Ferrer. Nadal had an injury and clearly wasn't his usual self, and it cost him a chance to go for the "Rafa Slam" when he lost in straight sets to his fellow countryman.
Since I didn't go out on a limb with my picks for the Australian Open, they turned out pretty well except for the injuries to finalists in both the men's and women's draw. I got 3 of the 4 semi-finalists correct on the women's side, and only 2 on the men's side, although I could make a claim to 3 since I saw Murray as a co-favorite with Soderling in his quarter. The one I missed on the women's side was my eventual champion Venus Williams, who sustained a leg injury and was forced to retire for the first time in her career in a major. Li Na ended up making it to the semis instead, and faces Caroline Wozniacki with a spot in the finals on the line. Despite the absence of Nadal, the men's draw still features 4 of the top 7 players in the world, so we should be in for some great tennis from here on out. Here are the matchups, with my updated predictions.
Women's
Li Na (9) over Caroline Wozniacki (1)
Vera Zvonareva (2) over Kim Clijsters (3)
I'm picking Li Na over Caroline Wozniacki because she hits the ball harder, and it seems Caroline is vulnerable with an injury to her leg. Wozniacki barely escaped her last match, having to come from behind to take out Francesca Schiavone in 3 sets.
In the second semifinal, I'm going with Vera Zvonareva to reach her 3rd Grand Slam final by avenging her U.S. Open final loss to Kim Clijsters. Clijsters seems to be making way too many errors, but she seems to thrive under heavy pressure so it wouldn't shock me to see her pick up her game.
Finals
Li Na (9) over Vera Zvonareva (2)
In the final I'm taking Li Na to win her first Grand Slam title over Vera Zvonareva. Zvonareva has lost badly in 2 major finals, and each time she seemed to break down mentally under the pressure. I'm betting on Na Li handling her nerves and managing her emotions better, and taking down her first Grand Slam singles title. She was close last year, losing in the semifinals to Serena Williams. With Serena out, I think Li Na takes full advantage and becomes the first woman from China to win a major.
Men's
Andy Murray (5) over David Ferrer (7)
Roger Federer (2) over Novak Djokovic (3)
Federer-Djokovic could and should be the match of the tournament. Both Djokovic and Federer have played great tennis throughout the tournament, and I fully expect this one to be as close as they come. Djokovic won his only major here in 2008, but it's tough to bet against Roger Federer in a Grand Slam match. Djokovic is playing better than I've ever seen him, and it definitely wouldn't surprise me at all to see him get through, but I'm going to give a slight edge to Federer simply because he's done it so many times before.
In the second semifinal, I'm picking last year's runner-up Andy Murray to make it back to the Australian Open final with a win over David Ferrer. This is nearly uncharted territory for Ferrer, as he has only made one grand slam semifinal before, and that was at the U.S. Open in 2007. Ferrer's a great player, but I think Murray has the game and experience to get past him and set up a rematch of last year's championship match.
Finals
Roger Federer (2) over Andy Murray (5)
Murray is one of the only players to have a winning head-to-head record against Roger Federer, as he is 8-6 all-time against the best player in tennis history. However, Federer has won both matchups with the Scot in Grand Slam matches, including last year's straight set victory in the Australian Open final. The win would be Roger's 5th Australian Open title and 17th major title overall, and would further distance him from everyone else to ever play the game.
Since I didn't go out on a limb with my picks for the Australian Open, they turned out pretty well except for the injuries to finalists in both the men's and women's draw. I got 3 of the 4 semi-finalists correct on the women's side, and only 2 on the men's side, although I could make a claim to 3 since I saw Murray as a co-favorite with Soderling in his quarter. The one I missed on the women's side was my eventual champion Venus Williams, who sustained a leg injury and was forced to retire for the first time in her career in a major. Li Na ended up making it to the semis instead, and faces Caroline Wozniacki with a spot in the finals on the line. Despite the absence of Nadal, the men's draw still features 4 of the top 7 players in the world, so we should be in for some great tennis from here on out. Here are the matchups, with my updated predictions.
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| Can't believe I left Vera off the "Ladies" post...won't happen again |
Li Na (9) over Caroline Wozniacki (1)
Vera Zvonareva (2) over Kim Clijsters (3)
I'm picking Li Na over Caroline Wozniacki because she hits the ball harder, and it seems Caroline is vulnerable with an injury to her leg. Wozniacki barely escaped her last match, having to come from behind to take out Francesca Schiavone in 3 sets.
In the second semifinal, I'm going with Vera Zvonareva to reach her 3rd Grand Slam final by avenging her U.S. Open final loss to Kim Clijsters. Clijsters seems to be making way too many errors, but she seems to thrive under heavy pressure so it wouldn't shock me to see her pick up her game.
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| Li Na |
Li Na (9) over Vera Zvonareva (2)
In the final I'm taking Li Na to win her first Grand Slam title over Vera Zvonareva. Zvonareva has lost badly in 2 major finals, and each time she seemed to break down mentally under the pressure. I'm betting on Na Li handling her nerves and managing her emotions better, and taking down her first Grand Slam singles title. She was close last year, losing in the semifinals to Serena Williams. With Serena out, I think Li Na takes full advantage and becomes the first woman from China to win a major.
Men's
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| Andy Murray |
Roger Federer (2) over Novak Djokovic (3)
Federer-Djokovic could and should be the match of the tournament. Both Djokovic and Federer have played great tennis throughout the tournament, and I fully expect this one to be as close as they come. Djokovic won his only major here in 2008, but it's tough to bet against Roger Federer in a Grand Slam match. Djokovic is playing better than I've ever seen him, and it definitely wouldn't surprise me at all to see him get through, but I'm going to give a slight edge to Federer simply because he's done it so many times before.
In the second semifinal, I'm picking last year's runner-up Andy Murray to make it back to the Australian Open final with a win over David Ferrer. This is nearly uncharted territory for Ferrer, as he has only made one grand slam semifinal before, and that was at the U.S. Open in 2007. Ferrer's a great player, but I think Murray has the game and experience to get past him and set up a rematch of last year's championship match.
Finals
Roger Federer (2) over Andy Murray (5)
Murray is one of the only players to have a winning head-to-head record against Roger Federer, as he is 8-6 all-time against the best player in tennis history. However, Federer has won both matchups with the Scot in Grand Slam matches, including last year's straight set victory in the Australian Open final. The win would be Roger's 5th Australian Open title and 17th major title overall, and would further distance him from everyone else to ever play the game.
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| Roger Federer |
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