It’s once again time for the 2025 NCAA Basketball Tournament Cheatsheet! We’ll go through the entire bracket region by region, projecting the most likely outcomes for every team in the tournament with an in-depth look at each first-round matchup.
Last year there was an overwhelming favorite in UCONN, and they steamrolled their way to a pretty easy National Championship. This year there are probably 7 teams with a realistic chance to cut down the nets in San Antonio, but I believe Florida and Duke are slightly above the rest of the field. We’ll start with the South Region.
South Region
(1) Auburn
Auburn is the top seed and overwhelming favorite to reach the final 4, but there are certainly a few potential roadblocks in their way. The Tigers have one of the nation’s best defenses, pressuring opponents with relentless aggression and effort. They have great size, length, and athleticism at every position, and they’re led by Player of the Year candidate Johni Broome.
Broome is a beast inside and on the boards, but he also has the ability to step outside and knock down the 3. While this Auburn team has plenty of offensive weapons, they can still get disjointed and go cold for stretches of time. They don’t always play intelligent basketball on the offensive end, and this could end up costing them against the very best teams late in the tournament. One reckless, turnover-prone game could spell the end, and while I still expect Auburn to win the South region and reach the Final Four, I think their run is likely to end there against SEC rival Florida.
The Tigers definitely have a chance to win the National Championship this season, but Coach Bruce Pearl’s playing time and lineup decisions could be the difference between potentially winning it all and coming up a little bit short. His decision to keep Tahaad Pettiford on the bench late against Duke cost them the game, and while I understand it’s a delicate balance when a veteran player like Denver Jones has been there for a while and has the experience, Pettiford is a potential NBA all-star and has to be in there for the majority of any big game. He’s one of the most underrated players in the country, and not playing him enough could be the thing that costs Auburn the title this season. Their offense just operates differently when he’s in there, as his ability to break down the defense and find the open man, along with his propensity to knock down big shots in clutch moments, takes their efficiency to another level. While there’s almost no chance they lose their first-round game, their path gets a lot tougher from there on.
(16) Alabama St
Alabama St won their conference tournament as the 5-seed, squeaking by every game on their way to a tournament berth, then won their first four game on a crazy last-second full-court miracle play. They have good size, length, and athleticism, with lightning-quick ball-handlers who can break down the defense. However, they haven’t been a very good outside shooting team this season, and most of their guys are pretty thin and are likely to get overpowered by an extremely strong and physical Auburn team.
(8) Louisville
Louisville is one of the most improved programs in the country this year, going from 8 wins a year ago to 27 this season. The Cardinals are a well-rounded team full of veteran players. They’ve got great size, length, and athleticism, and they share the ball offensively while playing very good defense.
Louisville is led by impact transfers Terrence Edwards Jr, Chucky Hepburn, and J’Vonne Hadley. All 3 have lots of big-game experience from previous schools, and while they’ve only spent one year playing together, their chemistry was great from day one. With Hepburn coming up clutch in the big moments, Edwards pacing the team in scoring, and Hadley doing all the dirty work, Louisville certainly has a chance to make a deep run. It won’t be easy though, as they’ve got a difficult first-round matchup in Creighton, with a potential 2nd round matchup with Auburn if they can get by the Bluejays.
(9) Creighton
Creighton reached the Sweet 16 last year, losing a close game to Tennessee. They return center Ryan Kalkbrenner and point guard Steven Ashworth from that squad, but the losses of Trey Alexander and Baylor Scheierman to the NBA make this a far less experienced team.
The Bluejays have great size and are extremely tough and competitive, but the loss of Pop Isaacs to injury earlier in the season really hurt their depth. Some of their role players really need to step up for Creighton to make a deep run this year, with the 2 most important players being Jamiya Neal and Jasen Green. They’re both athletic wings capable of big offensive performances, and their contributions will likely be the deciding factor in how far this team can go. I give Louisville a slight edge in this first-round matchup, but that’s by no means a guarantee as both teams certainly have a chance in this one.
(4) Texas A&M
Texas A&M played an epic second-round game with Houston last season, nearly pulling off the upset before ultimately falling in overtime. The majority of that core returned this season, and with the additions of Zhuric Phelps and Pharrel Payne the Aggies appear to be even better this year.
They’ve got great size, length, and athleticism, and they play with an aggressive toughness and physicality that’s really difficult to match. While their decision-making and outside shooting has been questionable at times, the Aggies always put relentless pressure on their opponents on both ends of the floor and will be a tough team to knock out of this tournament.
They should have no trouble winning their opening round matchup, and they already have a win against top-seeded Auburn just 2 weeks ago, so Texas A&M is certainly capable of making a deep run. However, they could potentially have a tough 2nd round matchup in Michigan, and I think a Sweet 16 appearance is probably the most realistic expectation for the Aggies this season.
(13) Yale
The Ivy League representative has been extremely tough in the NCAA tournament over the years, pulling several major first-round upsets, including Yale’s win over Auburn last season. This will undoubtedly make Yale a popular upset pick this year, and while it’s certainly a possibility, the matchup is not ideal.
Yale is a smart team that moves the ball and shoots it well from the perimeter. They’re led by John Poulakidas, Nick Townsend, and Bez Mbeng, all great shooters, but their lack of an inside scoring threat and inferior athleticism could be an issue against a bigger Texas A&M squad.
Yale came up big late to win the conference tournament over Cornell, but they’ll have to play much better if they want to knock off the Aggies. If somehow they are able to get by Texas A&M, they’ll likely draw another bad matchup against a Michigan team with great size inside.
(5) Michigan
I don’t fully trust this Michigan team, but it’s tough to dispute the fact that they’re playing some pretty good basketball right now. They just won the Big Ten conference tournament, and they’ve got one of the biggest front-courts in college basketball.
Danny Wolf and Vladislav Goldin are imposing figures inside, and both have the size and skill to dominate in their own way. Danny Wolf is a point guard in a center’s body, while Goldin is a more traditional big in the post. The question mark with this team is the guard play and the defense.
Auburn transfer Tre Donaldson has had a good season, leading the way with his toughness and aggression. The role-playing guards on the perimeter will likely decide how far this team can go, and my eye will be on freshman L.J. Cason. He hasn’t played a lot of minutes this season, but I believe he has an NBA future, and if Michigan is going to make a deep run, I look for him to be the x-factor.
Michigan has drawn a great first-round matchup in UC San Diego, a team they should absolutely dominate. The road will get much harder in round 2 with a possible matchup against Texas A&M, a team whose toughness and physicality could be an issue for this Wolverine team.
(12) UC San Diego
UC San Diego is a great passing team with some good shooters, but they’re small and not very athletic, 2 things that could be a huge problem against a Michigan team with great size inside. A team that plays below the rim will have a very difficult time grabbing rebounds and scoring around the basket against Michigan, and unfortunately for UC San Diego, they just don’t have anyone big enough to contend with Michigan’s twin towers inside.
The spread is surprisingly set at only 2.5 points in this 5-12 matchup, but in my view Michigan should be a much bigger favorite. UC San Diego just doesn’t have the size, length, or speed to threaten Michigan, and I’d be shocked if the Tritons end up pulling off the upset. This seems more like a great betting opportunity to go with the Wolverines.
(3) Iowa St
Iowa St is an extremely tough team, but injuries are threatening to derail what has been a really good season. Iowa St reached the Sweet 16 last year, where they lost a tight game to Illinois, and they returned the core from that team to make another run at it this year. Unfortunately 2 of their leaders have been banged up late in the season.
2nd-leading scorer Keshon Gilbert has already been ruled out for the season, and point guard Tamin Lipsey appears ready to give it a go despite missing their last game against BYU. This team is extremely tough when healthy, but there’s no doubt that these injuries will play a massive role. The supporting cast will need to step up in a big way for Iowa St to duplicate their success from last season, but the good news is they received a very favorable draw from the committee.
Iowa St draws Lipscomb in round 1, a smaller team that can really shoot it but lacks the elite speed and athleticism that could threaten the Cyclones. This section of the draw is the best opportunity to break through to an Elite 8, and while I think it’s probably more likely that Michigan St, Marquette, Ole Miss, or UNC will be the team that gets there, Iowa St could certainly be the team that emerges as well.
(14) Lipscomb
Lipscomb is absolutely deadly from 3-point range, giving them a shooter’s chance to pull off a few upsets. They play with great effort and intensity on both ends of the floor, but they’re undersized and not the quickest or most athletic team. They do pass the ball extremely well and play with a craftiness that can throw teams off, and with the way they shoot it from outside, they’re certainly capable of advancing in this section of the bracket.
Lipscomb plays below the rim and will likely have a tough time rebounding, but fortunately for them they’ve drawn what is probably the smallest section of the draw in the entire tournament. Despite this, I still think Lipscomb is unlikely to beat Iowa St.
(6) Ole Miss
Ole Miss is a well-rounded and tough defensive team. While they’re a little undersized, they make up for it with quickness, aggression, and physicality. Their lack of a true big man would normally be a big problem, but luckily this part of the bracket is void of teams with great size inside.
The door is open for a deep run to the Elite 8, and Ole Miss is one of the teams with a shot at it. The matchup with UNC is a much more difficult one than it might have been just a few weeks ago, but if Ole Miss is able to advance to play a banged-up Iowa St squad, they’d be in a favorable situation to move on to the Sweet 16. Truly anything could happen in this section of the bracket.
(11) UNC
North Carolina has been the focal point of criticism toward the NCAA tournament committee, as it seems that most everyone thinks the Tar Heels didn’t deserve to be included. I actually think the committee did the best job in recent memory this season, and it’s not just because I’m a UNC alum. The Tar Heels had a pretty rough first half of the season, but they’re playing their best basketball right now, and they’re certainly one of the best 68 teams in the country.
Being literally the last team in the tournament should give the Tar Heels something to prove, and judging by their performance against San Diego St, it definitely lit a fire under them. While UNC is uncharacteristically small this year and has shown a disappointing lack of problem solving when it comes to lineup changes and other strategic adjustments, the Tar Heels have landed in the most wide open section of the bracket, giving them the opportunity to make a deep run as far as the Elite 8. Carolina certainly has the talent and guard play to win a few games in this tournament, but they’re also more than capable of falling to Ole Miss in the first round.
(7) Marquette
Marquette returns a big part of the group from their Sweet 16 run last season, but much like the rest of the teams in this section of the bracket, they lack a true inside presence. They do have great guards led by senior Kam Jones, and he’s the kind of player who can capitalize on this opportunity to break through to an Elite 8.
Marquette is very good defensively and plays with toughness, aggression, and physicality on both ends of the floor. They’ve got some good slashers and guys who can knock down open threes, but they’ll likely need Kam Jones to carry them and score 20+ every game if they hope to advance deep into this tournament. He’s certainly capable of doing that, but he’ll also need some big contributions from a few of the role players if the Golden Eagles hope to get by the likes of New Mexico and Michigan St.
I’m looking at 2 guys in particular that I believe have NBA futures, sophomore Zaide Lowery and freshman Royce Parham. Marquette should be able to get by New Mexico, but one or both of those two young players probably need to have big performances for the Golden Eagles to advance past a potential matchup with Michigan St.
(10) New Mexico
New Mexico is the team with the best true big man in this section of the draw. Nelly Junior Joseph has great size and strength down low, and when you pair him with Donovan Dent, one of the most exciting players to watch in this tournament, they’ve also got a chance at a deep run.
Dent can put the ball in the basket in every way possible. At just 6’2” he’s not a very big guy, but he still finds ways to get to the basket and finish around the rim. He’s a great shooter with in-the-gym range, and he’s extremely good at breaking down the defense and finding the open man.
If New Mexico is going to advance past Marquette, they’re going to need some big contributions from some of the role players. Considering they just lost to Boise St I think they’re most likely to lose to the Golden Eagles in round 1, but the Lobos are also more than capable of winning that game and even a couple more.
(2) Michigan St
Michigan St and Coach Tom Izzo are always extremely dangerous in the NCAA tournament, and this year is no exception. The Spartans are led by a great group of guards, and while they’ve had a great year on their way to the regular-season Big Ten title, I do think Michigan St is by far the most vulnerable 2-seed in the tournament.
Much like the rest of this section of the draw, the Spartans lack a true big man inside, but they’re tough and physical and rebound extremely well, like all Michigan St teams tend to do. While the effort is always there, the offense can be inconsistent at times, and their lack of a real offensive threat down low could end up being a problem. This team is certainly capable of making a run to the Elite 8, but while I think they are likely to get past Bryant, potential trouble lurks with a possible matchup with Marquette in round 2.
(15) Bryant
Bryant is actually one of the bigger teams in the tournament, with all 5 starters coming in at 6’6” or taller. They have tremendous size and length, including 6’11” center Keyshawn Mitchell inside, and if you’re looking to pick a 15-seed to knock off a 2-seed, Bryant is the one to choose.
While their size and skill was very impressive in a bunch of blowout wins to win their conference tournament, the other teams in their conference don’t compare to the toughness and physicality of Michigan St. Bryant will have to bring much more intensity, physicality, and toughness than they’ve shown on the defensive end of the floor if they hope to knock off the Spartans.
Bryant hung with St. John’s for a while and didn’t look overwhelmed early in the season before ultimately losing by 22, but a concerning blowout loss to Grand Canyon doesn’t bode well for their upset chances against Michigan St. They were missing their leading scorer Raphael Pinzon for that one however, so maybe they should get somewhat of a pass.
The bottom line is that Bryant has a lot of talent, with the size, length, and athleticism to create problems for everyone in this section of the draw. They’ve got multiple ball-handlers, led by conference player of the year Earl Timberlake, who plays with the confidence to compete against anyone. If we’re going to see a true Cinderella team make a deep run in this tournament, I think Bryant is the most likely candidate.
link to last year's 2024 NCAA Tournament Bracket Cheatsheet
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