West Region
(1) Florida
Florida’s dominant win at Auburn showed that they’re capable of beating anyone anywhere. Another huge win at Alabama put everyone on notice that the Gators were now among the national championship favorites. Their total domination of the SEC tournament, featuring probably the most stacked conference in the history of college basketball, makes the Gators THE championship favorite coming into the NCAA tournament.
They have the size, depth, and versatility to make life difficult for their opponents on both ends of the court. They can put lineups on the floor where all five guys can pass, dribble, and shoot, allowing them to space out and break down the defense in a variety of ways. Having multiple big guys who can pass and knock down an open shot makes them extremely difficult to guard. Combine that with a bunch of players who move well without the ball and unselfishly look to find the open man, and you have a free-flowing offense that’s beautiful to watch.
Florida has a bunch of good ball-handlers, as well as multiple guys who aren’t afraid to take and make a big shot. Their depth is a huge asset, giving them the size, strength, quickness, and toughness to match up well with any different kind of lineup. Their guards apply pressure defensively while breaking it offensively, and all these things combined make Florida the deepest and most versatile team in college basketball.
While they’ve had some lapses at times and let some big leads slip away this season, Florida has really stepped it up defensively in recent games and has kept their foot on the gas pedal. They’re completely healthy now, and they’ve got a long list of players with futures in the NBA. The Gators have the best chance to cut down the nets in San Antonio.
(16) Norfolk St
Norfolk St has a great basketball program and is seemingly always in the conversation to make the NCAA tournament. This year is no different, and they actually have a very talented team with the size, length, quickness, and athleticism to cause problems for a lot of opponents. Unfortunately for the Spartans, they drew the worst possible matchup in this entire tournament.
Norfolk St is led by their guards Brian Moore Jr and Christian Ings. It’s unfortunate that this team wasn’t given a little more respect by the committee, because under different circumstances, I’d say they might have a chance to pull a major upset. Florida is just too good.
(8) UCONN
UCONN is obviously well-coached and has a wealth of NCAA tournament experience, but this team isn’t quite at the level of the last 2. The Huskies still have a lot of ways to hurt their opponents with a well-rounded offensive group, but their defense is nowhere close to as good as the ones they had during their national championship runs. UCONN should have a good size and depth advantage against Oklahoma, but with Florida lurking in round 2 the Huskies are unlikely to win more than one game in this tournament.
(9) Oklahoma
Oklahoma is led by star freshman Jeremiah Fears, who is likely to be a lottery pick in this year’s NBA Draft, but unfortunately he doesn’t have a lot of help. Senior Jalon Moore has been great as well, but he’s been the only other consistent offensive contributor, and the Sooners will need at least 1 or 2 other players to step up if they have any hope of beating UCONN. UCONN’s depth and experience definitely gives them the edge in this matchup, but with a superstar like Fears, Oklahoma definitely has a chance. If the Sooners are able to get by UCONN, they’ll likely get blown out by Florida.
(4) Maryland
Maryland has one of the most talented starting 5’s of any team in the country. Derik Queen might be the best big man in college basketball, and Julian Reese joins him in the front-court to make life difficult on opponents around the basket and on the boards. Guards Ja’Kobe Gillespie, Selton Miguel, and Rodney Rice are all good shooters who can also get to the rim, but the Terps haven’t had much of a contribution from their bench all season long.
While Maryland is very talented offensively as has scorers at all 5 positions, their defensive effort has left a lot to be desired. They’ve lacked the toughness and physicality they need on that end of the floor, and they’ll have to play much better defense than they have all season if they want to make a deep run in this tournament. They’ve shown they have the ability to do it, but they have to be more consistent, and they need to find someone off the bench that can help them out a little bit. The Terrapins are certainly capable of making the Sweet 16, but they’re unlikely to have a chance to beat Florida, and it’s certainly a possibility that they lose to Grand Canyon in round 1, or to Memphis or Colorado St in round 2.
(13) Grand Canyon
I really like this Grand Canyon squad, but I don’t love the matchup. The Lopes knocked off St. Mary’s in the first round last season before losing a competitive game to Alabama, but this contest against Maryland is more like last year’s Alabama game than the one against St. Mary’s.
Grand Canyon has great length and several explosively athletic players, including last year’s tournament hero Tyon Grant-Foster. This team is tough, physical, and aggressive on both ends of the floor, and they certainly have the talent to win multiple games in this tournament. It’s a little unlucky to draw one of the biggest and best frontcourts in college basketball in round 1, but Grand Canyon has the length and toughness to battle Maryland’s talented bigs down low. While I definitely think Grand Canyon has a chance in this game, it’s more likely that they lose a close one.
(5) Memphis
Memphis has great size, length, and athleticism. They have one of the nation’s best scorers in PJ Haggerty, but unfortunately it looks like his backcourt teammate Tyrese Hunter is going to miss this game with an injury. This has led the bookies to make 12th-seeded Colorado St the favorite, which I think might be a mistake.
Colorado St lacks a true inside presence down low, which should have Memphis big man Dain Dainja licking his chops. The Tigers should look to pound the ball inside to Dainja as often as possible, as the Rams will likely have no answer for him.
This Memphis team can compete with anyone when they play their best, but they’ve had the tendency to get sloppy and lose focus a little too often. Their intensity can definitely waver at times, so they’ll need to be locked in to take care of business in this one. If they get by Colorado St they’ll have a decent chance to win their next game against Maryland or Grand Canyon, but the run will likely end there.
(12) Colorado St
Colorado St shares the ball extremely well and has great shooters all over the floor. Their excellent ball movement results in lots of high-quality looks from 3-point range, and they’ve been knocking them down at a high rate all season long.
The Rams are lead by future pro Nique Clifford, who’s been dominating his opponents in nearly every facet of the game. He’ll undoubtedly be a tough matchup for Memphis, but the Tigers have the size and length to at least disrupt him a little and keep him from having his way around the basket.
I really like how scrappy this team is, and they play a beautiful brand of high-IQ basketball that’s fun to watch. Unfortunately they lack the same kind of size and athleticism that Memphis possesses, and it will be tough for Colorado St to overcome their physical disadvantages.
(3) Texas Tech
This Texas Tech squad is pretty banged up. 2 of their top 3 scorers, Derrion Williams and Chance McMillian, missed their last game against Arizona and have been in and out of the lineup with injuries, but several players have stepped up in their absence. Freshman Christian Anderson looks more than comfortable taking on a bigger role, while Kevin Overton, Kerwin Walton, and Elijah Hawkins have also made some important contributions.
JT Toppin has been dominant inside all season, and while he’s not the biggest player, he’s consistently attacked the basket with aggression and ferocity. He’ll be up against a much bigger opponent in UNCW’s Harlan Obioha, but Toppin will certainly have the quickness and mobility advantage.
Despite the injuries continuing to mount, Texas Tech just keeps on competing and winning. They’re tough, physical, and play bigger than their size, but they’ll definitely need a few role players to step up if Williams and McMillian can’t suit up. I really like this Red Raiders team, and I look for them to still get through to the Sweet 16 even with the injuries.
(14) UNCW
UNCW is definitely the best 14-seed in the tournament, but unfortunately they drew one of the 2 best 3-seeds. The Seahawks are led by their talented backcourt, guards Donovan Newby and Bo Montgomery. They’re both tough, strong, and can get to the rim as well as knock down shots from the outside.
UNCW has the size and length to cause problems for Texas Tech. They play an aggressive brand of defense that makes life difficult on any opponent, with the versatility to cause matchup problems on both ends of the floor. They definitely have a chance to pull an upset or 2, and if you’re looking to back a 14-seed to beat a 3-seed, this is the one to pick.
(6) Missouri
Missouri has been consistently overlooked this season, so it’s no surprise that many of the TV personalities and talking heads of the sports-world are picking Drake to upset the Tigers. While Drake comes in winning 7 straight games and 18 of their last 19, none of those wins has come against a team with the size, speed, and athleticism of Missouri.
The Tigers play extremely tough, physical, and aggressive defense. They give relentless effort on both ends of the floor, and I expect their length and explosive athleticism to cause major problems for Drake.
Coach Dennis Gates has done a great job with this team. Missouri was 8-24 last year and lost all 18 games in conference play, but this season they finished 22-11 and 10-8 in the toughest conference in the country. This team lacks a true star, which has hurt them on several occasions when trying to close out tight games, but they know their identity and they always play extremely hard. Missouri is a dangerous team more than capable of reaching the Sweet 16.
(11) Drake
I love Drake’s point guard Bennett Stirtz, but his team will be at a significant size, speed, and athleticism disadvantage against Missouri. It will be extremely important for Drake to slow this game down and control the tempo, keeping it from turning into a track meet and limiting Missouri’s transition opportunities. If Drake can make this a half-court contest they’ve certainly got a chance, but that will be much easier said than done. I think Missouri likely wins and sends Drake home with another 1st round loss.
(7) Kansas
Calling Kansas an experienced team is a massive understatement. Their entire roster has seemingly been playing college basketball for 10+ seasons, to the point where they actually seem to be getting too old to play at this level. This Jayhawks squad hasn’t had the success we’re used to seeing from most Kansas teams, and the main problem has been the lack of consistency from the wings.
However, the Jayhawks still have great size and play a tough and aggressive brand of basketball, and I think their experience will help them get past Arkansas in round 1. Their run will likely end in round 2, where they’ll almost certainly face an extremely tough St. John’s team.
(10) Arkansas
Despite having a roster loaded with talent, Arkansas just hasn’t been able to put it together this season. Several important injuries have made things difficult, but the Razorbacks just haven’t played very smart basketball and have been wildly inconsistent all season long.
It appears that Adou Thiero, who has been their best player for most of the year, will miss at least this first game against Kansas, but Arkansas will get Boogie Fland back after missing the last 2 months with an injury. This team is obviously extremely talented, and they’ve got the size, length, and athleticism to match up with anyone in the country, but I just don’t trust them to play to their potential. I’m going with Kansas.
(2) St. John’s
St. John’s has been one of the most impressive teams in the country this season. They’ve got one of the best backcourts in college basketball with RJ Luis and Kadary Richmond, along with one of the most versatile big men in Zuby Ejiofor down low. They’re joined by a quick and athletic supporting cast that helped them dominate the Big East, easily winning both the regular season and conference tournament titles.
The Red Storm play an incredibly tough and physical brand of defense, which holds opponents in check until they can heat up offensively and reel off a big run. This has helped them weather the cold spells they can sometimes experience on the offensive end, which usually happen when they temporarily lose focus and get a little sloppy. These mental lapses make it hard for me to fully trust them against the nation’s best teams, but you don’t win 9 straight games and 19 out of 20 without doing a lot of things right. I expect St. John’s to reach the Elite 8, where I think they’ll run into a Florida team that is just playing better than everyone at the moment.
(15) Omaha
I really like Marquel Sutton and JJ White, but Omaha lacks the size, length, and athleticism to knock off St. John’s. While the Mavericks have been pretty good offensively, their defense hasn’t been very good, and they’ve really struggled to rebound. This will be a problem against a very good St. John’s team that crashes the glass and flies around for loose balls, so I fully expect St. John’s to take care of business in this one.
No comments:
Post a Comment