2011 Australian Open

Men

The men's game is extremely top heavy, with only a few players having a real shot at winning the Australian Open title.  Here is a list of the contenders in each quarter of the draw, with the projected winners (*) and short explanation.

1st qtr: *Rafael Nadal (1), David Ferrer (7), David Nalbandian (27), Mikhail Youzhny (10), John Isner (20)

2nd qtr: *Robin Soderling (4), Andy Murray (5), Jo-Wilfried Tsonga (13), Jurgen Melzer (11), Marcos Baghdatis (21),  

3rd qtr: *Novak Djokovic (3), FernandoVerdasco (9), Tomas Berdych (6), Victor Troicki (29), Richard Gasquet (28),

4th qtr: *Roger Federer (2), Andy Roddick (8), Stanislas Wawrinka (19), Gael Monfils (12)

I picked the top 4 seeds to make the semi-finals, as I just think the top 5 are far and away better than everyone else (it wouldn't surprise me if Murray made it by beating Soderling).  I couldn't justify picking anyone else.  These guys just play at a different level, and barring an injury, they should all make it deep.

In the semifinals I'm taking Rafael Nadal over Robin Soderling, and Roger Federer over Novak Djokovic.  These two guys are the best of all-time, and it's a treat to watch them play every time they take the court, especially against each other.  These two just play points that wouldn't be possible with any other players, and I hope to see them play with the "Rafa Slam" on the line.  I'll pick a winner before they play, but right now I can't decide.

Women

As clear cut as the top of the men's game is, women's tennis is completely the opposite.  With Serena Williams out with an injury, the women's title is up for grabs, and ten or more women can realistically hope to win it. 

1st qtr: *Caroline Wozniacki (1), Justine Henin (11), Yanina Wickmayer (21), Svetlana Kuznetsova (23), Marion Bartoli (15),  Francesca Schiavone (6)

2nd qtr: *Venus Williams (4), Maria Sharapova (14), Na Li (9), Victoria Azarenka (8), Andrea Petkovic (30)

3rd qtr:  *Kim Clijsters (3), Nadia Petrova (13), Ana Ivanovic (19), Greta Arn (unseeded), Jelena Jankovic (7)

4th qtr:  *Vera Zvonareva (2),  Samantha Stosur (5), Flavia Pennetta (22), Petra Kvitova (25), Lucie Safarova (31), Shahar Peer (10), Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova (16), Maria Kirilenko (18)

To my surprise, I ended up picking the top 4 seeds on the women's side too.  I'm not nearly as confident in these picks, since I've watched much more men's tennis than women's, and I think many of the other women have a shot to get there.  I wouldn't be surprised to see:


1st qtr: Henin, Wickmayer, or Kuznetsova instead of Wozniacki

2nd qtr: Sharapova, Li, or Azarenka instead of Williams

3rd qtr: Petrova or Ivanovic instead of Clijsters

4th qtr: It wouldn't shock me to see any of the ones I listed above come out of this quarter, although I think Zvonareva and Stosur are clear favorites.

In the semis I'm taking Venus Williams over Caroline Wozniacki, and Kim Clijsters over Vera Zvonareva.  For some reason I just think Venus really wants to take advantage of Serena being out of this one, and I think she takes home her 8th major championship title with a win over Clijsters in the final.


Next to come...Best Reasons to Watch Women's Tennis

I Just Don't Get It

A wise man once said that the definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results (His name was Albert).  Never has this saying been more applicable.  How a guy as competitive as Roy Williams can continually do the same thing after his team digs a big hole early with the starters each game, then gets back in it with the 2nd team, completely baffles me.  Does he not see the trend here?  We spot the opponent a solid 10 points early each game, putting added pressure on ourselves later when we are forced to fight back from behind.  One thing a young team definitely doesn't need more of is pressure.  Why give the opponent confidence right off the bat by letting them jump out to a quick lead?  Why not just start Marshall, jump on the opposition from the tip, and win games going away?  At least try a different starting lineup and see what happens.  Why would you not?


What's that old saying?  Fool me once, shame...shame on you...(awkward pause)...You fool me we can't be fooled again??? (Wait that was President Bush's revised version).  Roy has to see the differences in this team when Marshall is on the floor and when he's not.  If he watches any tape at all, the major flaws in this team should jump out like an autostereogram.   Everyone gets much better looks at the basket when Marshall is in, and easier shots equal more points.  Not only that, but he keeps going with the 5-in, 5-out strategy which clearly isn't working, doesn't allow anyone to get in a good rhythm, and keeps a few of the top players from ever getting a chance to play with Marshall.  I wanted to lay off the Coach a little and avoid talking about this anymore, but that just isn't possible.  It's the single biggest mistake being made by the Tar Heels this season, and there is only one guy that can fix it (clearly if his assistants are saying anything about this, Roy is being too stubborn to listen).

The preponderance of the fan-vote seems to be with Kendall Marshall playing more, but I don't even think the casual fan understands just how good Marshall is.  He's going to have his freshman moments, and going on the road in the ACC can be very difficult, but he is already leaps and bounds ahead of Drew II in every facet of the game.  There is no need to sit Marshall and let him "learn" from Drew, as there is nothing Drew does better than Marshall, and therefore nothing to teach.  Marshall clearly has a much higher "basketball IQ," and if anything Drew needs to watch Marshall and try to learn from him.  The last two championship point guards at UNC have been extremely good players, but neither Felton nor Lawson had the vision that Marshall does already (this is saying a lot considering Felton is my favorite Carolina player of all time).  Marshall just has incredible instincts that can't be taught, and it's time to give him the reins and let him run with them. 

Here's my solution to the problem, with suggested estimated minutes per player...

Marshall 35
Barnes 27
Henson 26
McDonald 25
Zeller 25
Knox 22
Bullock 20
Strickland 12
Drew 5
Watts 3




While this minute distribution could lead to the transfer of Larry Drew, so be it.  He just doesn't have what it takes to be a starting point guard for a UNC team, and if he can't accept a backup role, then good riddance.  On another note, the athletic director has to be taking a serious look at Roy Williams.  While he has 2 championships, those teams each had 5 or more professionals on the roster, so the wins can hardly be attributed to him.  The last two years have clearly shown a lack of ability to recognize differences in talent, adjust in-game strategies, and put the team in the best position to be successful.  That is after all the main thing you pay a coach to do, and he has failed in all these aspects for the past two years.  You just can't rationalize paying a guy millions of dollars to perform worse than any knowledgeable die hard UNC basketball fan would.  While Roy does many good things for the program, something has to be done to fix this.  My suggestion is to make the coaching staff like one in the NFL, with offensive and defensive coordinators, and let Coach Williams be one of but not the only voice on the sidelines.  Someone else clearly needs to be in charge of lineups and in-game substitutions, because he is doing a horrible, horrible job in that department.  I'm sure this would never fly with a man as accomplished, proud, and stubborn as Roy Williams, but just because someone is a big name doesn't necessarily mean they're the best.  I guarantee there are thousands of people out there who could put together better lineups and strategies than Williams, and it's time we consider looking for one of those people to help right the ship.

The Heels have a quick turnaround with Clemson coming to town on Tuesday at 8pm.  The Heels are 54-0 all time against the Tigers in Chapel Hill, and it would be a shame to blow that record this year.  Clemson is coming off a 25-point win over the Georgia Tech team that just beat UNC by 20, so the Tar Heels will need a much better showing if they hope to keep the streak intact.  I look for a bounce back game for UNC, and a 0-55 mark for Clemson when they leave Chapel Hill Tuesday night.

Kendall Marshall Gets His Opportunity, Clearly Validates my Argument

This isn't about Larry Drew II.  It's about Kendall Marshall being the most essential part of the success of the 2010-2011 UNC basketball team. After Thursday's 9 point, 9 assist, 0 turnover performance against a good Virginia Tech team, this fact has never been more obvious.  While the stats are very impressive, much of what Marshall brings to the team doesn't show up in the stat sheet.  His incredible vision leads to many easy buckets where he didn't necessarily make the last pass before the basket, but his play was the main reason the basket occurred.  Zeller and Henson finally got the opportunity to play big minutes with Marshall on the floor, and they both flourished with the improved looks they received.  Zeller finished the game with 16 points and 9 rebounds and an abundance of short half hook shots, while Henson had 17 points and 8 boards with 4 blocks and a plethora of huge dunks.  Marshall knows where everyone likes the ball, and he gets them in positions to be successful.  Our offense operates with much more efficiency when he's in there, and we play with more swagger and energy along with it.

After escaping these first 2 ACC games at 2-0 and Duke looking at least a little vulnerable, I'm suddenly getting more and more excited about this season.  While I still think Duke will win the ACC, these early season results have at least provided a little hope to the rest of the conference that there is a chance that someone else could do it...as long as Kyrie Irving doesn't return from injury.

For the Heels to win on a night when Malcolm Delaney was in an unbelievable zone and led the Hokies to a 16-point first half lead, it really says a lot about how this team handles adversity.  Even with Bullock and McDonald shooting horribly all game from the outside, UNC never panicked, and for the 2nd game in a row they came from behind to win a close game.  Barnes made some horrible plays earlier in the game, but he showed he's not afraid to take the big shots and was extremely clutch down the stretch. Since I've bashed on Roy for playing the wrong players, I'll give him some credit where its due.  He is a magician at knowing the right things to say to keep his teams in the right mindset, regardless of the circumstances.  This team could have folded, but I'm sure the coach had a lot to do with keeping this team calm and convincing them they would be in the game at the end if they just kept playing.  No one was shooting well, but the entire team maintained confidence and pulled it out.  If we can just get the right players in the game for the right amount of time, this team could be really good.

Georgia Tech is up next (Sunday 7:45), and while they always play the Heels tough in Atlanta, UNC is the clear favorite and should win the game.  The Yellow Jackets just took a 25-point drubbing at the hands of Clemson, so a Heels' loss here would be a bad one.  I'm excited to see the starting lineup on Sunday night, as the man with striking similarities to Jason Kidd has to be in there...Right?

UNC-Virginia: ACC Opener

UNC got off to a 1-0 start in the ACC, but it wasn't pretty, and it certainly wasn't easy.  Just when I thought Roy Williams might have figured out that Kendall Marshall is better than Larry Drew II, he reverted back to his old ways.  Here are the stat lines of the two point guards...

Larry Drew II:  24 minutes, 2 assists, 3 turnovers, 1-5 shooting, 5 points

Kendall Marshall: 16 minutes, 2 assists, 0 turnovers, 2-5 shooting, 5 points

Game after game, Kendall Marshall plays much better than Larry Drew, yet Drew continues to be the starter and play the majority of the minutes at the point.  I'm not sure what games Roy Williams is watching, because it's clear to me that Marshall is much better, and he typically matches or surpasses Drew's output in less time while making fewer careless turnovers.  Some people say that Larry Drew is a better defender, but I question that as well.  It seems to me that it's just another catchphrase that people get in their head, then just repeat over and over and convince themselves that it's true (these kinds of things are typically found in politics).  Even if Drew was a better defender, he's certainly not enough of an upgrade on that end of the floor to make up for how bad he is on offense.  He has no confidence, rarely even looks to penetrate, and has no chance at making a shot from the outside.  He doesn't create much for his teammates, and he's just not a threat to do much of anything when the Heels have the ball.  This is the last time I'm going to talk about this, as I've clearly made my point and I'm getting tired of repeating the same thing after every single game.

Besides the botched decision at point guard, Williams' substitution patterns have been suspect all year long.  He has consistently replaced the five players on the floor with five new ones after only three or four minutes of game time, assuring that no one on the team can ever find a rhythm on the court.  With around 17 minutes to go in the 2nd half against Virginia, he finally decided to let some guys play for 6-8 straight minutes, and the Heels clawed back during that time and won the game.  I hope he noticed how that worked, but I'm not counting on it.  He needs to watch how Coach K only plays his best players for the majority of the game and take some notes.

While I like a lot of things that Roy Williams has done at Carolina, he has had a very hard time for the past two years just putting the right guys on the court.  Virginia is not a good team and this game really shouldn't have been close, but Roy seems intent on giving everyone similar minutes rather than playing the best players for the majority of the game.  Although Harrison Barnes has struggled so far this season, I still believe he is our best and most talented player.  Unfortunately for him, he has been on the court with Kendall Marshall for less than 5 minutes all season, and that has really hurt the quality of shots he's been getting.  While some of the shot selection has to be attributed to Barnes himself (he needs to drive much more often rather than settling for fade away jumpers), I just don't understand how those two haven't been on the court together hardly at all this year, as I think they would be a great combination on the floor.  If I was coaching, I'd start Marshall-Bullock-Barnes-Henson-Zeller, with McDonald, Knox, and Strickland playing big minutes off the bench.  Drew and Watts would play sparingly, only coming in if someone was dead tired.  I do like what Watts has done this year as an energy spark off the bench, but he just isn't talented enough to get the same kind of minutes as a guy like Reggie Bullock.  Strickland has come back to earth after a few great games and is back to flying around out of control, and it's time for him to take a back seat to the bigger more talented players behind him.

It probably seems that I want Roy Williams fired, but that isn't the case.  I love what Roy Williams does for the University of North Carolina, and I have no doubt that he loves the school.  He has carried on the legacy of Dean Smith, making sure that the Carolina family sticks together and never loses that bond.  I imagine he's a very good mentor for college kids, and he's obviously a great motivator and speaker (speech maker, interviewer, talker, however you want to word it), as well as an extreme competitor.  Despite this, he clearly lacks a lot of vision when it comes to in-game changes and adapting to what's happening on the floor, and that is a major part of what he's getting paid millions of dollars to do.  I'm as big a fan of UNC athletics as anyone in the world, and it really hurts me to see us struggle so much unnecessarily and not be able to do anything about it.  Maybe one day someone will read my ideas and hire me as an assistant, as my basketball skill set would be a perfect compliment to Roy Williams.  That, after all, is the major reason I started this blog, and I'm going to continue it until someone sees it and decides they have to take a chance.  Spread the word ;)

NFL Playoff Predictions

It's been a while since I made an NFL post.  This can be fully attributed to the lack of success of both my fantasy football teams, and the Carolina Panthers.  I missed the playoffs in both of my fantasy leagues for the first time ever, and my Panthers are the worst team in football, struggling to a pathetic 2-14 finish in a season where they could hardly move the ball at all on offense.  I lost interest about 4-5 weeks ago, but the playoffs are here now and I will be watching.  Here's a brief analysis of each team, followed by my playoff picks...

AFC
1. New England Patriots 14-2
The Patriots have won 8 straight games and are the favorite to win it all. 

2. Pittsburgh Steelers 12-4
The Steelers have a nasty defense, and the offense isn't too shabby either.  They definitely have a chance to win it.


3. Indianapolis Colts 10-6
The Colts do have Peyton Manning, but they have been struggling mightily of late.  They've been banged up all year, and while both running backs have returned, the losses of Dallas Clark and Austin Collie might be too to overcome.  The defense hasn't been very good, and I think they go out in the first round.

4. Kansas City Chiefs 10-6
It's great to see Kansas City in the playoffs.  They looked like they might blow it for a minute, but the injury to Antonio Gates of San Diego assured the Chiefs of a spot.  They feature the league's best rushing attack, but I expect them to lose in the first round to the playoff-tested Ravens.

5. Baltimore Ravens 12-4
The Ravens have been just squeaking by for the past few weeks, but they've won 4 in a row.  Baltimore is a little banged up, but they have great players on both sides of the ball and are definitely a threat to win the title if things fall the right way.

6. New York Jets 11-5
The Jets talk a big game, and they sometimes back it up.  Their defense is definitely one of the league's best, but QB Mark Sanchez is a big liability.  They will need him to play great and avoid making big mistakes if they hope to win the Super Bowl.

AFC Predictions

Wildcard Round
Jets over Colts
Ravens over Chiefs

Divisional Round

Patriots over Jets
Steelers over Ravens

AFC Championship
PATRIOTS over STEELERS

The Patriots have just been too dominant this season, and I can't justify picking anyone else to make the Super Bowl from the AFC.


NFC
1. Atlanta Falcons 13-3
The Falcons were the beneficiary of a relatively easy schedule this season.  No doubt they are a good team, but they aren't particularly great in any category and I don't expect to see them win a title just yet.  Nearly every game they had this year was close, and I just think they will drop one before they reach the Super Bowl.


2. Chicago Bears 11-5
The Bears also capitalized on an easy schedule this season, as they lost to most of the good teams they played.  They have a great run defense, but have been very mediocre in most aspects of the game.  I look for them to lose their first game, unless they somehow get to play the Seahawks.


3. Philadelphia Eagles 10-6
This team is extremely dangerous.  They've struggled the past few weeks, but if everyone is healthy and they can put everything together, you could definitely see the Eagles in the Super Bowl.  I'm thinking they might be a year away.

4. Seattle Seahawks 7-9
The Seahawks are just lucky to be here.  Someone had to win the pathetic NFC West, and Seattle got it done by beating the St. Louis Rams in the final game of the season.  They do have a home game, but I fully expect them to get blown out by the defending champion Saints.


5. New Orleans Saints 11-5
The Saints won it all last year and are a threat to get back to the Super Bowl again.  As long as Drew Brees is out there, New Orleans will have a great chance to win any game they play.  However, the losses of RB's Pierre Thomas and Chris Ivory for the season will have a large impact, and the Saints will need a huge contribution from Reggie Bush if they hope to repeat.

6. Green Bay Packers 10-6
The Packers have a solid D and one of the league's best quarterbacks, Aaron Rodgers.  I picked the Packers to reach the Super Bowl before the season began, but after they lost Ryan Grant for the season almost immediately it looked like they weren't going to recover.  Well here they are, sneaking in to the playoffs as a very scary 6 seed, with as good a chance to make it to the Super Bowl as anyone else in the NFC.  They have a very difficult first round matchup in Philadelphia, but if they get by that one I think they can get there.

NFC Predictions

Wildcard Round
Saints over Seahawks
Packers over Eagles

Divisional Round

Packers over Falcons
Saints over Bears

NFC Championship
SAINTS over PACKERS

In a matchup of both wild card teams, I'm going with the defending-champion Saints, mainly because they will be the home team.  I think these teams are very evenly matched, and if the Packers were the home team I would have gone with them.

SUPER BOWL
PATRIOTS over Saints

The Patriots have been hands-down the best team in the NFL for the 2nd half of the season, and I think they continue their winning ways and win yet another Super Bowl in a tight game against the Saints.  New England has the league's best coach, the clutchest quarterback, and a hodgepodge group of no-namers who get the job done.  Great showing by New Orleans to get back to the Super Bowl for the 2nd consecutive year, but  injuries in the running game catch up to them and cause them to fall just short of a repeat.  Tom Brady wins a 4th championship, and 3rd Super Bowl MVP award.

Tom Brady, another Super Bowl MVP

2011 ACC Season Projections

The conference season reaches full swing tomorrow, with 5 ACC battles on the docket.  Here are my predictions for the season, with projected order of finish and All-ACC selections...

1. Duke
2. UNC
3. Miami
4. Florida St. 
5. Virginia Tech
6. Maryland
7. Boston College
8. Clemson
9. Virginia
10. N.C. State
11. Georgia Tech
12. Wake Forest

All ACC 1st Team 
Nolan Smith, Duke
Kyle Singler, Duke
Jordan Williams, Maryland
Malcolm Delaney, Virginia Tech
Chris Singleton, Florida St.

2nd Team
Mike Scott, Virginia
Reggie Jackson, Boston College
Malcolm Grant, Miami
Tyler Zeller, UNC
Durand Scott, Miami

3rd Team
Jeff Allen, Virginia Tech
Joe Trapani, Boston College
Reggie Johnson, Miami
Harrison Barnes, UNC
C.J. Leslie, NC State

Obviously a few things could change depending on injuries and playing time.  Kyrie Irving from Duke would definitely be 1st or 2nd team if he's healthy, but it's looking like he could miss most of the season since Duke doesn't really need him to win the ACC.  Other players who received some consideration, but ultimately just missed the list...

Iman Shumpert, Georgia Tech
Cliff Tucker, Maryland
Cory Raji, Boston College
Mason Plumlee, Duke
Reggie Bullock, UNC *(playing time)
Leslie McDonald, UNC *(playing time)
John Henson, UNC
Mustapha Farrakhan, Virginia
Tracey Smith, NC State
Ryan Harrow, NC State
Glen Rice Jr., Georgia Tech
Demontez Stitt, Clemson
Jerai Grant, Clemson

ACC Season Starts Tomorrow for UNC

UNC begins its 2011 ACC season tomorrow at Virginia, and it couldn't come at a better time.  The Heels are coming off their two best games of the year, while the Cavaliers are struggling without their leading scorer Mike Scott. 

UNC crushed a Rutgers team that was supposed to give them some trouble, cruising 78-55 in Madison Square Garden.  The Heels finally locked down defensively, holding the Scarlet Knights to just 34% shooting from the field, including 23% from the 3-point line.  UNC also dominated the glass, out-rebounding Rutgers 43-30.  Leslie McDonald scored 14 points in just 16 minutes, shooting 5-9 from the field and 4-7 from 3-point range.  Kendall Marshall had another great game running the team, as he had 6 assists to just 1 turnover in his 18 minutes of game time.  Justin Watts was also extremely efficient in limited time, scoring 10 points on 3-4 shooting and bringing tons of energy off the bench.

The Tar Heels faced an over-matched 2-10 St. Francis team in their final tuneup before the start of the ACC season.  After a slow start, UNC pulled away just before the end of the first half and went on to win by 49 points, 103-54.  Pretty much everyone for UNC had a great game, as St. Francis was just too small and too slow to keep up. 

Leslie McDonald

Kendall Marshall

Kendall Marshall got more time than Drew at the point for the first time all season, racking up 8 assists in his 22 minutes.  If this kid can get 30 minutes on the court per game, he might lead the nation in assists.  He just has a natural ability to break down a defense by constantly applying pressure, rather it be a long pass ahead that catches the defense off guard, or deep penetration into the lane to collapse the defense and create a wide open look for a teammate.  No one has benefited from Marshall's talents more than Leslie McDonald.  McDonald has found himself on the receiving end of many wide open looks from Marshall, and he's taken full advantage of them.  He was 4-6 from 3-point range against St. Francis, and has proven over the past few games that he is a deadly shooter from the perimeter.  Roy Williams has to find more minutes for McDonald, as his ability to stretch a defense is the piece UNC has been missing for the past year.  I believe Reggie Bullock has the skills to do this as well, and he chipped in 12 points and 5 rebounds in his 17 minutes against St. Francis.  Not only can Bullock shoot the 3, but he also has a smooth all-around offensive game, complete with a mid-range jumper, a floater, and the ability to finish around the rim.  He's also very long, allowing him to help out on the boards and to bother the opposing teams shooters on the perimeter.  The success of the Tar Heels this season will be directly correlated with how much time McDonald and Bullock get on the court, as these two are maybe the best scorers on the team right now.

There's no doubt this Tar Heel team has the talent to be much better than a 10-4 team, and if the changes in playing time are any indication, Roy Williams seems to finally be figuring out who to play and when.  I hope he continues in this direction, because if he does, UNC has the potential to once again become a top 10 team in the country.

Look for my ACC season projections in the next post, complete with projected team finish and All-ACC selections.