Later Larry

Good riddance!!! I don't know all the details on why Larry Drew II left UNC, but I do know that the Tar Heels are going to be a better team because of this.  It does hurt UNC in that they don't really have a backup point guard now, but if Drew was going to play 20 minutes a game and continually take minutes away from Marshall, we are better off without him.  This isn't how I thought it would happen, but it's the moment I've been waiting for all season.

I can almost guarantee that the Carolina offense is going to get much better as a result of this move, and many people are going to say that "Roy had a plan all year," or something to that effect.  The bottom line is that every good change that has happened to the UNC rotation this season has been forced on Roy Williams, so it really has nothing to do with good coaching moves.  The injury to Justin Watts forced Roy to put an end to the 5-in 5-out strategy that failed time after time, and now Drew has given Williams no choice but to play Marshall for the majority of the game.  The only way Roy can screw this up is if he plays Dexter Strickland for big minutes at the point.  Strickland is not a point guard, and if he takes the 20 point guard minutes that Drew was getting we might even be worse.

I really hope Roy does the obvious and gives all the minutes to Marshall and Bullock.  If he does, the Tar Heels will have a legitimate chance to make a final 4 run, and I will get undeniable proof that what I've been saying all season was right. It's extremely exciting to know that the team's best players should finally get the opportunity to play the minutes they should have been playing all along, and with Drew out of the picture, these young Heels should be emboldened to fulfill their potential.

Thatta Boy Roy!

Now that's what I've been waiting for!!!  I don't want to say I told you so (well maybe just a little bit), but a light bulb finally turned on in the head of Roy Williams on Tuesday night.  He completely scrapped the 5-in 5-out garbage and played much more of the lineups I've been begging for all season long, and it resulted in the best game of the season for the Tar Heels.  He's been getting closer the past few games, but Roy finally put together his best coaching game of the year as UNC crushed Boston College in Chestnut Hill 106-74.

In the last two games, Harrison Barnes has played like the first-team All-American he was projected to be.  While he's clearly found his shooting touch after struggling for most of the season, I believe the players on the floor with him have had a lot to do with that.  Prior to the N.C. State game, Barnes had been settling for contested fade-away jumpers much too often, and just wasn't getting the ball in good spots.  Now that he's getting time on the floor with Kendall Marshall and Reggie Bullock, he's magically getting much better looks, and he's knocking them down.  Marshall just knows where to go with the ball, whether it's switching the side of the court he's on as he crosses half-court to improve the spacing, or recognizing who has the hot hand and making sure to get him the ball in a position where he can be successful.  There's just many subtle things that Marshall does that can't really be taught, and it takes an extremely knowledgeable eye for the game to even recognize some of the things he brings to the table.  Marshall understands the game at an extremely high level, and his mere presence on the floor makes everything work much better.  His importance to the team can't be fully seen by simply looking at the box score, and I can't be more pleased that Roy seems to finally realize who his point guard is.

Most telling stat of the night...UNC with Marshall on the floor +30, without Marshall +2

This game marked the second breakout game for not only Harrison Barnes, but also Reggie Bullock.  Bullock is a tremendous offensive player, a natural scorer, and has to get more time on the court.  Sure he was on fire today, but this would happen much more often if he was given more minutes.  He and Barnes can score in every way possible, and I just love watching these two on the court together with Marshall.  With these 3 playing the majority of the game, UNC can get back to being one of the top scoring teams in the country.  This team is certainly young, but there is simply too much offensive firepower on this squad for the Heels to have struggled as bad as they have on that end of the floor.


The guards had their best night in quite a while, but the bigs inside produced their second dominating performance in a row.  John Henson is full of confidence right now, and he's playing with the swagger he displayed in high school.  His length makes it very difficult for the opposition on both ends of the court, and when he's being aggressive and playing smart he's a dominant player.  Tyler Zeller and Justin Knox also had great games, combining for 26 points on 8-10 shooting and 9 rebounds.  Even Larry Drew II played well tonight, chipping in 9 assists to just one turnover off the bench. 

Now for the other end of the floor.  Dexter Strickland's defense on Boston College star Reggie Jackson was phenomenal.  Jackson was limited to just six points on 2-10 shooting, as Strickland's suffocating D took him completely out of the game.  Dexter never allowed Jackson to get in a rhythm, so even when Strickland came out you could tell that the Eagles' star just wasn't his usual self.  The team as a whole seemed to play with much more energy and effort than normal on the defensive end of the floor, so maybe the piles of snow covering the area had the same effect it has on a young puppy just seeing the white powder for the first time.
Joe Trapani had a monster game for BC with 25 points and 15 rebounds, and Corey Raji chipped in 16 and 6, but everyone else was shut down.  The Tar Heels held the Eagles to 35% shooting and forced 16 turnovers, and once again dominated the glass as they have done all season.  This team seems to be hitting its stride at the perfect time, and the next 3 games will really tell us just how good they are.
 

North Carolina Tar Heels
STARTERS	MIN	FGM-A	3PM-A	FTM-A	OREB	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TO	PF	PTS
Tyler Zeller, F	25	6-7	0-0	6-6	3	6	1	3	1	0	3	18
John Henson, F	26	6-10	0-0	1-1	1	7	1	0	2	2	2	13
Dexter Strickland, G	23	2-7	0-1	0-0	1	3	4	1	0	1	4	4
Harrison Barnes, F	26	9-15	4-7	4-4	3	6	1	0	0	1	1	26
Kendall Marshall, G	20	2-3	1-1	2-3	0	3	6	0	0	2	0	7
BENCH	MIN	FGM-A	3PM-A	FTM-A	OREB	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TO	PF	PTS
Justin Knox, F	17	2-3	0-0	4-6	1	3	1	1	0	0	2	8
Larry Drew II, G	19	0-1	0-0	0-0	0	2	9	0	0	1	2	0
Leslie McDonald, G	15	4-9	1-4	0-0	0	0	1	0	0	0	1	9
Reggie Bullock, G	17	6-9	4-7	0-0	1	4	1	1	1	1	0	16
D Bolick	2	0-0	0-0	0-0	0	1	1	0	0	0	0	0
Van Hatchell, F	2	0-0	0-0	0-0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Stewart Cooper, F	2	0-0	0-0	0-0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
David Dupont, F	2	0-0	0-0	0-0	0	2	0	0	0	1	0	0
Patrick Crouch, G	2	2-3	1-1	0-0	0	1	0	0	0	0	1	5
Dj Johnston, NA	2	0-1	0-0	0-0	0	1	1	0	0	0	0	0
TOTALS		FGM-A	3PM-A	FTM-A	OREB	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TO	PF	PTS
		39-68	11-21	17-20	10	39	27	6	4	9	16	106
		57.4%	52.4%	85.0%
Everyone had a good game in this one, but the minutes for both Marshall and Bullock need to go up in the next few games if they hope to win against Florida State, @ Duke, and @ Clemson.  Obviously there was no need to play anyone big minutes in such a massive blowout, but they are two of the best players on the team and have to be playing more than half the game when it's close.  These last two games are very encouraging, and it's exciting to see things coming together after a frustrating first half of the season.  Florida State visits the Smith Center on Sunday at 2pm, and the Heels can put a 2-game gap between the two teams with a win.  Chris Singleton and Derwin Kitchen are the two main weapons for the Seminoles, and with the way the Heels have allowed open 3-pointers all season long, they need to watch out for Deividas Dulkys as well.

I Bet N.C. State Fans Miss Herb Sendek

N.C. State is not a very good basketball team.  If anyone has a clue over there in Raleigh, Sidney Lowe is soon to be the ex-head coach of the Wolfpack.  The same N.C. State fans that called for Herb Sendek's head are now likely saying something like "why did we fired Sendek?"  It just puts a smile on my face to hear things like this, because I remember how much they hated old Herb back when they were finishing in the top 3 of the ACC and making the NCAA tournament on a regular basis. Oh how things have changed, and the most delusional fan base in the entire world has no one to blame but themselves.  Ever since Sendek was forced out, the Wolfpack has been a bottom dweller in the ACC and a lock to miss The tournament.  N.C. State finds themselves in an all too familiar spot in the bottom 3rd of the league once again, and if they ever hope to compete they've got to find a competent coach now.  They just don't recruit well enough to overcome bad coaching.  The fans will be okay come August though, as they'll probably be the favorite to win the NCAA BCS Championship game again next year.

Enough about State, lets talk about the Tar Heels for a minute.  A few weeks ago everyone thought UNC was on their way to another rough season, and all the "Tar Hole" this, and "Tar Hole" that started coming out of the woodwork. After escaping relatively in tact after a half season worth of coaching mistakes, Roy Williams is slowly starting to figure it all out.  This is great news for UNC, as they have all the talent to make a pretty good NCAA tournament run if they can just get the right players on the court.  It will definitely help if Harrison Barnes starts playing like he did against State.  Barnes was brilliant on Saturday, and finally showed us the game we were all told would we see on a weekly basis before the season started.  Harrison scored 25 points on 10-16 shooting, grabbing 6 rebounds and committing only one turnover.  He's shown glimpses all season of the talent that made him a preseason first-team All-American and the projected #1 NBA draft pick, but he's never really put it all together.  The thought that he could be on the verge of greatness is an exciting feeling.

John Henson was an absolute monster inside on Saturday.  It didn't take him long to completely demoralize the N.C. State bigs, and he continued to throw down dunks and swat away shots for the entire game.  Henson finished with 16 points on 6-10 shooting, 16 rebounds, 7 blocks, and countless instances of intimidation.  When Henson starts brimming with confidence, he can really dominate a game.  What would worry me as an NBA scout is how his confidence is easily shattered, and you never know how he's going to feel on a given night.  He certainly brings tremendous length, rebounding, and shot blocking to the table, and it's fun to watch him when he's feeling good about his game.  Hopefully Henson starts working with a sports psychologist, because if he gets his mental game together he could be a great player for a long time.

Tyler Zeller and Justin Knox were dominant inside as well, leading to an easy Tar Heel victory despite getting next to nothing from either guard position.  There simply wasn't much reason for the guards to attempt many shots, as it was clear the Wolfpack had no answer for anyone in the paint.

State's best player Tracy Smith ultimately fouled out and was part of the group that was annihilated by the Tar Heel giants, while Scott Wood was completely shut down on the perimeter, getting off only 2 shots (he missed both) and scoring 2 points.  I'm almost embarrassed to say I'm not sure who was guarding Wood most of the time, but whoever it was did a great job of denying him the ball and forcing him to drive when he got it.

Up next is a trip to Boston College, a team that's in the top half of the ACC despite losses to two Ivy League schools earlier this season.  Even though they were beaten by both Yale and Harvard on their home court, the Eagles have some very talented players and are definitely a threat to pull the upset on Tuesday night at 9pm.  Reggie Jackson, Corey Raji, and Joe Trapani will all be playing basketball somewhere after they graduate from B.C., with Jackson having a real shot at making the NBA, so the Heels better come to play if they hope to get out of the snow with a win.

Saving His Best for Last

There is no doubt that Harrison Barnes has fallen short of the enormous expectations everyone had for him coming into his freshman season at UNC, with one exception.  When there's not much time left and the game is in the balance, Barnes has been nothing short of spectacular.  He struck again with his late game heroics on Wednesday night at Miami, hitting two huge jumpers, including the game-winning 3 pointer with 6 seconds left, allowing the Heels to escape Miami with a 74-71 win.  This kid has been unbelievably clutch when his team needed it most, and it's only a matter of time before he picks it up for the rest of the game.

UNC once again dug a big hole early on, but recovered by halftime to enter the break tied at 39.  Tyler Zeller was completely exposed by Reggie Johnson, and if I'm an NBA scout Zeller probably just tumbled all the way off my draft board.  He is just too weak to deal with strong, talented big men inside, and he was clearly outplayed by Johnson on both sides of the court.  Justin Knox was much more effective in half the minutes, and probably needs to get more playing time when the opposing team has a guy like Johnson inside.

The Tar Heels won despite 13 three pointers for the Hurricanes on 46% shooting.  Dexter Strickland had a very good game, as he stuck to what he's good at (slashing to the basket) and avoided taking any shots from the outside.  I got down on Dexter a little bit after the last few games, but I'm okay with him getting a few more minutes now after I've calmed down a bit.  He still plays entirely too much however, and needs to give up some of that time to Reggie Bullock.  I just see glimpses of greatness in Bullock, and he gives us a big-time scoring punch, rebounding help, and much more length on the perimeter from the shooting guard position.

UNC really hasn't played anywhere near its potential all year, but they've squeaked by time and time again.  This win was absolutely huge, as Miami has much more talent than their record suggests, and beating them on the road is quite an accomplishment.  This season could have gone completely in the toilet without the three huge comebacks in ACC play, but these Heels are definitely resilient and are looking like an NCAA tournament team.

N.C. State comes to the Dean Dome Saturday at 2pm after blowing a 19-point lead at Clemson on Tuesday night, and the Heels should take care of business.  State has not looked very good, but they do have a great player in Tracy Smith inside.  He is similar to Johnson in that he has great strength inside, but he's much more talented offensively and not quite as big.  If I'm Roy Williams I probably give Justin Knox some more minutes to counter the strength of Smith inside, and I make sure to limit Scott Wood's looks from the 3-point line.  The Wolfpack has little else to damage UNC, and this should be an easy win.  However, judging by the way this season has gone, it wouldn't shock me if this one came down to the wire just like all the rest.

Update from Down Under

The Australian Open has produced a few up and coming stars and several injuries to some top players, but for the most part things have gone according to plan. The one major surprise happened early this morning when Rafael Nadal lost to David Ferrer.  Nadal had an injury and clearly wasn't his usual self, and it cost him a chance to go for the "Rafa Slam" when he lost in straight sets to his fellow countryman.

Since I didn't go out on a limb with my picks for the Australian Open, they turned out pretty well except for the injuries to finalists in both the men's and women's draw.  I got 3 of the 4 semi-finalists correct on the women's side, and only 2 on the men's side, although I could make a claim to 3 since I saw Murray as a co-favorite with Soderling in his quarter. The one I missed on the women's side was my eventual champion Venus Williams, who sustained a leg injury and was forced to retire for the first time in her career in a major.  Li Na ended up making it to the semis instead, and faces Caroline Wozniacki with a spot in the finals on the line.  Despite the absence of Nadal, the men's draw still features 4 of the top 7 players in the world, so we should be in for some great tennis from here on out.  Here are the matchups, with my updated predictions.

Can't believe I left Vera off the "Ladies" post...won't happen again

Women's
Li Na (9) over Caroline Wozniacki (1)

Vera Zvonareva (2) over Kim Clijsters (3)

I'm picking Li Na over Caroline Wozniacki because she hits the ball harder, and it seems Caroline is vulnerable with an injury to her leg.  Wozniacki barely escaped her last match, having to come from behind to take out Francesca Schiavone in 3 sets. 

In the second semifinal, I'm going with Vera Zvonareva to reach her 3rd Grand Slam final by avenging her U.S. Open final loss to Kim Clijsters.  Clijsters seems to be making way too many errors, but she seems to thrive under heavy pressure so it wouldn't shock me to see her pick up her game.

Li Na

Finals
Li Na (9) over Vera Zvonareva (2)
In the final I'm taking Li Na to win her first Grand Slam title over Vera Zvonareva.  Zvonareva has lost badly in 2 major finals, and each time she seemed to break down mentally under the pressure.  I'm betting on Na Li handling her nerves and managing her emotions better, and taking down her first Grand Slam singles title.  She was close last year, losing in the semifinals to Serena Williams.  With Serena out, I think Li Na takes full advantage and becomes the first woman from China to win a major.

Men's

Andy Murray

Andy Murray (5) over David Ferrer (7)

Roger Federer (2) over Novak Djokovic (3)

Federer-Djokovic could and should be the match of the tournament.  Both Djokovic and Federer have played great tennis throughout the tournament, and I fully expect this one to be as close as they come.  Djokovic won his only major here in 2008, but it's tough to bet against Roger Federer in a Grand Slam match.  Djokovic is playing better than I've ever seen him, and it definitely wouldn't surprise me at all to see him get through, but I'm going to give a slight edge to Federer simply because he's done it so many times before.

In the second semifinal, I'm picking last year's runner-up Andy Murray to make it back to the Australian Open final with a win over David Ferrer.  This is nearly uncharted territory for Ferrer, as he has only made one grand slam semifinal before, and that was at the U.S. Open in 2007.  Ferrer's a great player, but I think Murray has the game and experience to get past him and set up a rematch of last year's championship match.


Finals
Roger Federer (2) over Andy Murray (5)
Murray is one of the only players to have a winning head-to-head record against Roger Federer, as he is 8-6 all-time against the best player in tennis history.  However, Federer has won both matchups with the Scot in Grand Slam matches, including last year's straight set victory in the Australian Open final.  The win would be Roger's 5th Australian Open title and 17th major title overall, and would further distance him from everyone else to ever play the game.

Roger Federer

Getting Warmer...

Roy Williams got a little closer to playing the right guys today, but there are still several changes that need to be made for this team to perform at an optimal level.  UNC was without Leslie McDonald in the game tonight against Clemson, which opened up a few more minutes for other players to show what they could.   Reggie Bullock took full advantage.

Reggie has been so pedestrian the last few games that he almost made me forget about him.  I've been singing his praises all year, but his last three games made me forget how vital I thought he was to this team.  You have to give Reggie a break since he never gets much time on the court, so finding a rhythm has been very hard for him, especially recently.  Roy gave him an extended amount of playing time in the first half, and Bullock responded by scoring 16 of his 18 points.  He's just so smooth, and has every offensive skill in the book.  Reggie is also a force on the boards and in the passing lanes, as he had several steals leading to breakaway layups, and he nearly always pulls down 5 rebounds in his limited minutes.  There's no question he is a starter for UNC, and I think he starts off at the shooting guard position.  Having an extremely long, 6'7" shooting guard will be a huge advantage for the Tar Heels, and the sooner he's playing big minutes the better.  After going 3-16 with only 6 points in an averaging of 13 minutes/game over his last 3 games, Bullock shot 6-10 in route to scoring 18 points against the Tigers.  He's in the mold of Kevin Durant.

Now for the Kendall Marshall debate.  Marshall got his first start tonight, but he only played 22 minutes so really nothing has changed.  In fact, moving Kendall up to play with the first team actually kept him from playing many minutes alongside another of UNC's best players, Reggie Bullock.  I can sense a great chemistry will develop between these two, and I want to see it evolve for as many minutes per game as possible.  Three other major things I noticed tonight slightly changed my minute distribution suggestion.

1)Larry Drew was great off the bench.  He played one of his best games of the season, as he appeared more confident and aggressive.  This might have earned him a few more minutes in my book, but UNC just has too many more talented players, so it's going to be tough for him.

2)John Henson and Tyler Zeller completely distinguished themselves from Justin Knox in my eyes tonight.  I was thinking about using these guys almost interchangeably, but I now lean toward much heavier minutes for Henson and Zeller.  They both just have more versatility, and when it comes right down to it are just more talented basketball players.  Seeing them play more with Marshall made this obvious.

3)Dexter Strickland plays entirely too much.  I get it...he's a good defender.  He plays extremely hard, and he's very fast.  Only problem is he's out of control about 75% of the time on offense, and has almost no chance of making a 3-pointer.  He had two or three good games in a row against sub-par competition, but just as in the case of Larry Drew, there are just more talented guys on the team that should be playing ahead of him.

In basketball, you need to be playing your best players for as much time as possible.  This hasn't been anywhere close to happening all season for the Tar Heels, and Roy Williams still hasn't figured it out.  Here's what he has to do, and here's what he did tonight (minutes in parentheses).  Once these guys start getting to play together consistently, just watch as UNC gets better and better.

Kendall Marshall 35 minutes (22)        
Reggie Bullock 30 (18)
John Henson 30 (23)
Tyler Zeller 30 (28)
Harrison Barnes 25 (30)
Leslie McDonald 25 (0, injury)
Justin Knox 10 (18)
Larry Drew 8 (23)
Dexter Strickland 7 (30)
Justin Watts 0 (8, he got injured tonight)

Justin Watts got injured tonight, and while I don't want him to be hurt, he really shouldn't play much. His role should be limited to a spark off the bench to wake our guys up when they're sluggish, as the rest of the things he provides can be done from the bench or in the locker room.  He's apparently a great leader for these young kids, and he should only play as many minutes as it takes to keep that going.  He's a great athlete, but just not a very good basketball player.

Since I seem to always be criticizing the coach, I feel like I need to say a few nice things about him.  It was nice to see Roy Williams come rushing on to the floor when Watts was injured.  This is one of the greatest things about him.  He truly cares about all of his players, and he's a great ambassador for the UNC program.  The man is a great mentor and a good spokesman, but he can't put the right players on the floor.  I don't want Roy gone, but I don't want him deciding who to play and when to make substitutions either.  Not exactly sure what the solution is there, but paying a guy millions of dollars to coach a team when he can't even do something so essential is a major problem.

Ladies of the Australian Open

The sport of tennis is severely underrated in the U.S., so I decided to give my readers another reason to watch besides just the tennis.  The game is loaded with beautiful women, and I decided to dedicate a post to honor the best female players to watch at this year's Australian Open.

#1 Caroline Wozniacki: she's the world's #1 player, and she's absolutely gorgeous with an unbelievable, care-free attitude.  She just might be perfect.

                                                                                                                                                                                                                      

#2 Ana Ivanovic

#3 Gisela Dulko

# 4 Maria Sharapova

#5 Victoria Azarenka

#6 Maria Kirilenko

#7 Sorana Cirstea

#8 Ashley Harkleroad:  tune in early in the tournament or you'll miss her.

#10 Sania Mirza

#9 Alona Bondarenko

Hope for a sighting...Two ladies that won't be playing in the tournament, but might be seen around the grounds in Melbourne...Anna Kournikova, and Andy Roddick's wife and SI cover girl Brooklyn Decker.

Anna Kournikova

Anna Kournikova

Anna Kournikova

Anna Kournikova

Brooklyn Decker