Under the Radar: Pittsburgh Quietly in the Mix for the ACC Title

Pittsburgh isn’t typically known for its college basketball program, but the Panthers have a realistic chance of winning the ACC title this year.  Coming off a win against Duke and currently sitting at 8-2 overall and 4-1 in the conference, Pittsburgh could easily be undefeated in league play if their star player had been available in the loss to Louisville.

Justin Champagnie might be the most underrated player in college basketball this season.  The 6’6” sophomore is leading the ACC in both scoring and rebounding at over 20 points and 13 boards per game, and his efficient play on both ends of the floor has his team in position to compete for the league championship.

Champagnie is an elite athlete who dominates the glass and challenges shots at the rim.  He’s a great finisher around the basket, and he has a knack for finding open space and knocking down shots.  He nearly always makes the right play and is a great leader for this team.

Au’diese Toney is another incredibly long and athletic NBA-caliber wing.  He’s extremely aggressive in all facets of the game, and together he and Champagnie pose a major problem for opponents.  Point guard Xavier Johnson gives Pitt another strong athlete and reliable 3^rd scorer that helps give them a chance against almost any team in the country.

Pittsburgh is a fast, athletic, and physical team that is certainly underrated at the moment.  Duke currently being unranked will likely further hide this Panther team from the national spotlight, making them a great bet in most of their remaining games this season

Under the Radar: Oklahoma State Has a Chance to Put Itself on the Map Today

Still unranked and somehow flying under the radar, Oklahoma State has a huge opportunity to put itself on the map when it hosts Baylor today.  The Big 12 is without question the nation’s best basketball conference this season, and while I think Baylor is the class of the league and a notch above everyone else, Oklahoma State is in the group just below them.  The Cowboys are coming off a win against Kansas, and if they can defend home court once again against Baylor they’ll certainly get some nationwide recognition.

The lack of attention given to Oklahoma State this season is a little surprising considering they’ve got a player who might hear his name called first in the 2021 NBA Draft.  Cade Cunningham is one of college basketball’s best players, and as a 6’8” point guard he’s causing a lot of problems for his opponents.

Cunningham does everything well and is a matchup nightmare for pretty much everyone.  He’s a great ball-handler and passer who prefers to get his teammates involved, but he has the ability to take the game over when it’s needed. 

He can post-up smaller defenders down low, or beat bigger defenders off the dribble.  He’s a great shooter from all over the floor, and he’s able to see over the defense to find open teammates.  He uses his size to grab his share of rebounds and cause problems defensively.  He’s certainly a guaranteed lottery pick.

Cunningham’s unselfishness and elite court vision results in tremendous ball movement, as his teammates are inspired to follow his lead and find the open man.  Oklahoma State surrounds Cunningham with some lightning quick athletes capable of putting pressure on their opponents on both ends of the floor.

Unfortunately Oklahoma State is banned from postseason play this season, but as an unranked team that I think is top ten material, they’ll be plenty of opportunities to make some money betting on the Cowboys this year.  I wouldn’t ever want to bet against Baylor, but I’d definitely be placing some wagers on Oklahoma State more than a few times down the stretch this season.

Duke is Now Massively Underrated for a Change

 The Duke Blue Devils just dropped out of the top 25 after 91 straight ranked weeks, and at 5-4 overall and 3-2 in the ACC they are now uncharacteristically underrated.  If Duke can stay healthy from here on out, this should be a great opportunity to make some money betting on the Blue Devils.

Duke is coming off their second consecutive loss, but those tight road losses were to two of the best teams in the ACC.  The Blue Devils have also been playing without their best player Jalen Johnson, who finally returned for a full game against Pittsburgh and delivered a masterful performance, looking like a guy who should be in the conversation for the #1 pick in the 2021 draft.  Johnson finished with 24 points, 15 rebounds, 7 assists, 4 blocks, and 2 steals with 0 turnovers in 33 minutes, and although Duke still lost the game, the Blue Devils have a chance to be a Final Four team with Johnson on the floor.

As a UNC grad I’m certainly no Duke fan, but I’m expecting a very big finish to the regular season for this Blue Devil squad.  Freshmen guards D.J. Steward and Jeremy Roach are starting to play much better and under control, giving Duke two quick and aggressive ball-handling floor generals capable of scoring or setting up teammates.

Matthew Hurt is the ACC’s 2^nd leading scorer and gives Duke a versatile inside/outside threat who can make shots from all over the floor.  If Duke can get consistent contributions from either Wendell Moore Jr. or Jaemyn Brakefield on the wing, this team has a chance to go on a big run and finish at or near the top of the ACC.

With arguably the best coach of all-time and a handful of highly-touted freshmen starting to figure things out, I’d recommend placing some wagers on the Blue Devils from here on out, starting with their matchup at Louisville on Saturday.

 

 

How to Bet the UNC Tar Heels: The Return of Anthony Harris Could Ignite a Run

 Most people have probably never heard of Anthony Harris, but he’s an extremely talented combo guard who will immediately become UNC’s best player for the rest of the season.  Harris is a redshirt freshman who impressed in limited action before going down with an injury last season, and he finally made his return in nine highly efficient minutes in Carolina’s loss at Florida State on Saturday. 

While his brief time on the court didn’t result in a Tar Heel win, it did show that Coach Roy Williams now has the tools to take this team towards the top of the ACC and potentially to a deep run in the NCAA Tournament.  The only question is, will he make the right adjustments to optimize his team’s success?

The North Carolina Tar Heels are no doubt a legendary program, but at this point you’d have to say they’re in their second consecutive slump year.  At 8-5 overall and 3-3 in the ACC, they’ve simply been a sloppy middle of the road team struggling to do anything well, and that includes the coaching.  Betting on UNC has been a losing proposition so far.

UNC has the talent to be much better than they’ve been up to this point in the season.  This can be said nearly every year at college basketball’s midway point, as Coach Roy Williams takes a long time to figure out who his best players are and how much time he should keep each player on the floor.  Betting the spread for UNC’s opponents early in the season will typically make you money.

It usually takes at least half the season for Ol’ Roy to reach something close to an optimal lineup and substitutional pattern, and by this point the Tar Heels have usually dropped a few unnecessary games and not come close to reaching their potential.  In-game strategic adjustments are usually few and far between.

Carolina’s extreme youth at the guard position has had a lot to do with its sub-par play so far, but the lack of minutes for Day’Ron Sharpe has been even more costly.  I thought Coach Williams was onto something when he finally started Sharpe in UNC’s 9^th game of the season at Georgia Tech, but Day’Ron still played only 19 minutes in that one. 

I thought surely Ol’ Roy had finally figured it out when he started him again against Notre Dame and played him 29 minutes, with Sharpe delivering 25 points and 10 rebounds and clearly being the best player on the team.  Sharpe was again obviously one of UNC’s best players in a close win over Miami, finishing with 12 points and 16 rebounds in another dominating performance inside.

Then Syracuse comes to town, and Day’Ron Sharpe went back to the bench.  I assume Roy did this because of Cuse’s zone defense and Sharpe’s lack of experience against it, but to truly get the most out of this Tar Heel team, Day’Ron Sharpe needs to be playing maximum minutes, building confidence, and gaining as much experience as possible for later on in the season. 

I understand that UNC has two big men who’ve been around longer, but Sharpe is by far the most talented and impactful player and needs to be on the floor, especially to start the game.  He’s going to make mistakes, but the more learning opportunities he gets the better he will be when it really matters late in the year.  His toughness, physicality, and relentless effort and energy are vital to UNC’s success, and having him on the floor from the tip will help Carolina get off to faster starts and give them chances to put teams away early.

With the ACC being the least talented it’s been in as long as I can remember, UNC has a realistic chance to win every game left on their schedule.  Obviously I don’t believe they’re being optimized nearly enough to run the table, but if Coach Williams can figure out how to best use the tools at his disposable, UNC has a chance to quickly raise its level of play and be a winning bet in most of its remaining games. 

A Final Four run isn’t likely, but if Carolina hands Anthony Harris the keys and allows him to be the leader and go-to-guy, and Day’Ron Sharpe starts and plays the majority of each game, UNC could elevate itself into the second-tier group of teams just below Gonzaga and Baylor.  If Roy Williams finds the right combinations, taking Carolina and the over from here on will be a winning play.

2020-2021 College Basketball Team Rankings, 1st update of NCAA Tournament 1st round winners

We're a month into the college basketball season, and Gonzaga and Baylor still stand out as the clear National Championship favorites.  Here are the top 32 teams I think will win 1st round games in the NCAA Tournament...

2021 Team Rankings Games Seen Last

1 Gonzaga                         2 12/2/20

2 Baylor                         1 12/2/20

3 Houston                         1 11/29/20

4 Kansas                          4 12/8/20

5 Texas Tech                 2 11/29/20

6 West Virginia                 2 12/2/20

7 Creighton                 4 12/20/20

8 UCONN                         3 12/20/20

9 Xavier                         2 12/9/20

10 Rutgers                         1 11/29/20

11 Missouri                         1 12/2/20

12 Illinois                         5 12/15/20

13 Syracuse                         1 12/12/20

14 Iowa                         1 11/25/20

15 USC                         2 12/3/20

16 Boise St.

17 BYU                                 2 12/18/20

18 Tennessee                 1 12/8/20

19 Michigan                         1 11/25/20

20 Penn St.                         1 12/2/20

21 Virginia Tech                 1 11/28/20

22 Villanova                         2 11/28/20

23 Texas                         4 12/2/20

24 Oregon                         2 12/4/20

25 St. Louis                         1 11/28/20

26 LSU                                 1 11/28/20

27 Florida St.                 1 12/2/20

28 Arkansas                         2 12/2/20

29 Indiana                         3 12/2/20

30 Florida                         1 12/3/20

31 Clemson                         1 11/25/20

32 Ohio                          1 11/27/20

2021 NBA Draft List

One month into the college basketball season, five players have separated themselves from the pack for next year's NBA Draft.  Gonzaga point guard Jalen Suggs is currently holding down the #1 spot in my rankings.

2020-2021 NBA Draft Rankings

Rank Player         Position   Team Height    Weight Year

1 Jalen Suggs             PG    Gonzaga    6'4" 205    Freshman

2 James Bouknight     SG/PG     UCONN   6'5" 190 Sophomore

3 Evan Mobley             PF/C     USC      7'0" 210   Freshman

4 Ayo Dosunmo             PG/SG     Illinois     6'5" 200 Junior

5 Cade Cunningham     PG Oklahoma St. 6'8" 220 Freshman

6 Trendon Watford     SF/PF     LSU     6'9"    240 Sophomore

7 Charles Bassey     PF/C   W. Kentucky    6'11"    235 Junior

8 Cameron Thomas     SG     LSU        6'4" 210 Freshman

9 Dalano Banton     PG/SG/SF Nebraska     6'9"    204 Sophomore

10 Jalen Johnson             SF Duke 6'9" 220 Freshman

11 Day'Ron Sharpe     PF/C UNC 6'11"    265 Freshman

12 Trayce Jackson-Davis PF/C Indiana 6'9" 245 Sophomore

13 Jonathan Tchamwa Tchatchoua SF Baylor 6'8" 245 Sophomore

14 Greg Brown         PF/C Texas  6'9" 205 Freshman

15 Terrance Shannon Jr.    SG/SF Texas Tech 6'6" 210 Sophomore

16 Micah Peavy         SF Texas Tech 6'7" 215 Freshman

17 Terrence Clarke SG/SF/PG Kentucky 6'7" 194 Freshman

18 Jalen Wilson         SF Kansas 6'8" 215 Freshman

19 Derek Culver         PF/C West Virginia 6'10" 255 Junior

20 Isaiah Jackson         PF/SF Kentucky 6'10" 206 Freshman

21 Ziaire Williams SG/SF Stanford 6'8" 185 Freshman

22 Corey Kispert         SG/SF Gonzaga 6'7" 220 Senior

23 Jason Preston         PG Ohio 6'4" 187 Junior

24 Joel Ayayi         SG/PG Gonzaga 6'5" 180 Junior

25 Tre Mann         SG/PG Florida 6'5" 190 Sophomore

26 Landers Nolley II  SG/SF/PG Memphis 6'7" 220 Sophomore

27 Quentin Grimes   SG/PG Houston 6'5" 205 Junior

28 Andrew Nembhard       PG Gonzaga 6'5" 193 Junior

29 Matt Mitchell             SF San Diego St. 6'6" 235 Senior

30 Paul Scruggs             SG Xavier 6'4" 196 Senior

31 Quincy Guerrier     SF/PF Syracuse 6'7" 220 Sophomore

32 Scottie Barnes             PG/SG/SF Florida St.    6'9"    227 Freshman

33 Justin Champagne     SG Pittsburgh    6'6"    200 Sophomore

34 Javonte Perkins     PG/SG     St. Louis 6'6" 210 Senior

35 Brandon Boston Jr.     SG/SF     Kentucky    6'7" 185 Freshman

36 Ochai Agbaji             SG/SF Kansas 6'5" 210 Junior

37 Harlond Beverly     PG Miami 6'5" 185 Sophomore

38 Antwan Walker     SF Rhode Island 6'7" 230 Junior

39 Chris Duarte             SG/SF Oregon 6'6" 190 Senior

40 Jared Butler             PG Baylor 6'3" 190 Junior

41 Josh Christopher     PG/SG     Arizona St. 6'5" 215 Freshman

42 Davion Mitchell     SG/PG     Baylor     6'2"    195 Junior

43 Kessler Edwards     SF    Pepperdine    6'8" 200 Junior

44 Zach Edey             C     Purdue     7'4"    285 Freshman

45 Alan Griffin             SG Syracuse 6'5" 190 Junior

46 Walker Kessler     PF/C UNC 7'1" 245 Freshman

47 Adam Miller             SG Illinois 6'3" 180 Freshman

48 E.J. Liddell             SG Ohio St. 6'6" 236 Sophomore

49 David Johnson     PG Louisville 6'5" 210 Sophomore

50 Justin Smith             SF Arkansas 6'7" 230 Junior

51 Miles McBride     PG W. Virginia 6'2" 200 Sophomore

52 Jeremiah Robinson-Earl    SF     Villanova 6'9" 230 Sophomore

53 Moses Wright         SG/SF Georgia Tech 6'9" 233 Senior

54 Chris Smith         SF/PF UCLA 6'9" 215 Senior

55 Aamir Simms         PF Clemson 6'8" 245 Senior

56 Aaron Henry         SG/PG Michigan St. 6'6" 210 Junior

57 Moses Moody        SG Arkansas 6'6" 205 Freshman

58 Toumani Camara SF Georgia 6'8" 220 Sophomore

59 Bryce Wills     SG/SF Stanford 6'6" 200 Junior

60 David Duke Jr         PG/SG    Providence    6'5"    205 Junior

2020-2021 College Basketball Rankings

 2020-2021 College Basketball Rankings

We're nearly two weeks into the college basketball season, and it seems like Gonzaga and Baylor have put some distance between themselves and the rest.  I have a lot of problems with the AP and Coaches polls, so here's my alternative top 32 teams that I think would advance to the 2nd round of the NCAA Tournament (hopefully there will be one).  I've included how many times I've seen each team play along with the date of the last game I saw.  As of now I think Louisville and Florida are the most underrated teams, while Iowa is by far the most overrated.

2021 Team Rankings Games Seen Last

1 Gonzaga                                 2       12/2/20

2 Baylor                                 1       12/2/20

3 Louisville                              2       12/1/20

4 West Virginia                         2      12/2/20

5 Illinois                                 3       12/2/20

6 Florida                                 1       12/3/20

7 Houston                                 1       11/29/20

8 Texas Tech                         2       11/29/20

9 Maryland                              1       12/4/20

10 Kansas                                  3       12/1/20

11 St. Louis                                 1       11/28/20

12 LSU                                      1         11/28/20

13 Virginia Tech                         1       11/28/20

14 Villanova                              2       11/28/20

15 Arizona St.                         1       11/25/20

16 Rhode Island                         2       12/2/20

17 Michigan St.                         2       12/1/20

18 Texas                                 4       12/2/20

19 UNC                                 3       12/2/20

20 Duke                                 2       12/1/20

21 UCONN                                 2       12/3/20

22 USC                                 2       12/3/20

23 Florida St.

24 Arkansas                                 2       12/2/20

25 Ohio                                  1       11/27/20

26 Missouri                                 1       12/2/20

27 Richmond                         1       11/29/20

28 N.C. State

29 Oregon                                 2       12/4/20

30 Oklahoma St.                         2       12/1/20

31 Marquette                         1       12/1/20

32 Creighton                         1       12/1/20