Updated Player and Team Rankings

 

College Basketball Stories for the Week Ahead, with Team and Player Rankings

One of the best parts of the college basketball season gets underway this week, kicking off with the Champions Classic in Madison Square Garden tonight. The early season tournaments give us the opportunity to see many of the nation’s best teams play each other with championships on the line, and while the Champions Classic is just a showcase of 4 storied programs and not an actual tournament, we’ll give it some attention since it marks the start of some potentially juicy matchups.

While this showcase has lost a little of its luster with the announcement that Kansas star freshman Darryn Peterson will miss tonight’s game against Duke, pretty much assuring that Duke will beat Kansas handily, Kentucky and Michigan State should provide enough entertainment to make up for it. Kentucky is the far more talented team, but Michigan State’s toughness and rebounding dominance gives them a chance to compete.

Wednesday will provide us with an even better opportunity to see some of the top teams square off, with Arizona playing at UCONN and Alabama traveling to Illinois. UCONN appears to be back in championship form on both ends of the floor, and while I think Arizona has a chance to throw their name into the championship conversation as well, they probably won’t be as consistent from game to game. UCONN simply has more weapons and a much better defense, and I expect them to handle their business at home. If you like free money, put some down at +115 odds for the Huskies to win the Big East conference this year.

Alabama is coming off a troubling loss at home to Purdue, where they were dominated physically and exposed defensively, and their schedule isn’t doing them any favors by following that up with a trip to Illinois. While Purdue is currently ranked #1 in the AP poll, I see Illinois as a better team than Purdue, especially when they’re at full strength. While Illinois may still be without star center Tomislav Ivisic, they should still have enough to do exactly what Purdue did and hand Alabama their 2nd loss in a row.

Tournament season truly kicks off on Thursday with the Baha Mar Championship in the Bahamas, featuring the aforementioned Purdue Boilermakers along with Memphis, Texas Tech, and Wake Forest. This tournament should be extremely interesting, with 3 of the 4 teams having a reasonable chance to win the title. Memphis looks to be the odd team out, and Purdue should have no trouble reaching the championship game against the winner of Texas Tech and Wake Forest.

Purdue will once again have a size and strength advantage inside, but Texas Tech has the best post player in JT Toppin, while Wake Forest is coming off a narrow one-point overtime loss at Michigan and has the talent and athleticism to hang with anyone. Whichever team gets the most fans to make the trip might have the edge, but all 3 have already played extremely well in hostile environments so anything could happen in this tournament.

Gonzaga moves into the top spot

After several extremely impressive performances early this season, Gonzaga has now moved into the top spot in my poll. The Bulldogs are overdue to win a National Championship, and despite currently being ranked #13 in the AP poll, this Gonzaga team has the depth, talent, and versatility to deliver Coach Mark Few the title he deserves. At +2500 this is likely to be the best price we’ll be able to get on Gonzaga cutting down the nets in Indianapolis, because after their demolition of a pretty good Creighton team last week, this team might flirt with an undefeated regular season if they get to conference play without a loss. A wager on the Bulldogs to make the Final 4 at +500 seems like a great bet as well.

While going undefeated is extremely rare and always unlikely, there’s another much more under-the-radar team I think has a legitimate chance to do it as well. The Saint Louis Billikens are unranked and relatively unknown, but they’re extremely quick, athletic, and skilled, and they’re led by a coach who is soon to be one of the biggest names in college basketball.

Josh Schertz is a name that not many people probably recognize, but I have a feeling this will be the last season where that’ll be the case. I first noticed him while living in Charlotte, North Carolina and attending a few games at Queens University, where Schertz brought his Lincoln Memorial team to town every year and developed an incredible rivalry with Queens. His teams were always extremely tough and prepared, and he carried that success to Indiana State before taking the job at Saint Louis. While I currently have Saint Louis ranked #6 in my poll, they have an extremely weak schedule and should be favored in every game they play. Betting them at +400 to win the A10 conference seems like an absolute lock.

 

 

 

"Bet the House" Segment with Team and Player Rankings

 Alabama -3.5 over Purdue

The “Bet the House” segment barely saved itself last weekend, squeaking by with the narrowest of victories when Arkansas covered the 3.5 point spread against Michigan State by just a half point. While I want to focus mainly on Alabama and Purdue here, we have to talk about Arkansas for a minute.

The Razorbacks are one of the most talented teams in the country, but their performance against Michigan State was borderline pathetic, due more to the coaching than anything the players did. There’s no doubt that John Calipari is one of the greatest recruiters of all time, but I’m just gonna come out and say it, he’s below average as a coach.

Year after year, Coach Calipari has a really hard time identifying who his best players are, and who should be on the floor. What he’s doing with Maleek Thomas coming off the bench is reminding me of how he handled Devin Booker, forcing his team to start the game without one of its best players and ensuring that they don’t have their best lineup on the floor. While this is only one of the disastrous lineup mistakes Calipari is making early this season, his problems go beyond personnel decisions.

He consistently struggles to make adjustments on the fly, and his team was clearly unprepared for the kind of physicality and rebounding effort Michigan State brought to the game. While Coach Tom Izzo’s teams are always among the best rebounding teams in the country, there’s really no excuse for how badly Arkansas got dominated on the glass. The Razorbacks have a long way to go to reach their enormous potential, and until Coach Calipari makes some major changes, they’ll continue to be more of a solid top-20 team than the championship contender we were hoping to see.

Let’s now move on from my disappointment in Arkansas and Coach Calipari to a much more impressive SEC team, the Alabama Crimson Tide. The Alabama guards were fantastic in a gritty road win over St. John’s, consistently pushing the pace and keeping the St. John’s defense on its heels. Their quickness and ability to score from anywhere makes them extremely difficult to defend, and this could be a major problem for a Purdue team that lacks elite speed and athleticism.

While Purdue is a smart, veteran squad and I understand why they’ve started the season ranked so highly, they’re still badly overrated even after dropping from #1 to #2 this week. In their last game they struggled to pull away from an Oakland team that isn’t very good, and although they were without one of their better players Trey Kaufman-Renn, their limitations were on full display. While Kaufman-Renn is expected to return tonight, he likely won’t be at his best, and even if he is I don’t think it will matter. Alabama is just too fast and too athletic, and after losing to Purdue the last 2 seasons, I think the Crimson Tide will be eager to turn the tables and put a beatdown on the Boilermakers.

College Basketball: Big-Picture View from Week 1

We’re obviously taking some chances here with bold predictions early in the season based on very little information, but one of the main objectives of this work is to see the big picture as early as possible. There will naturally be lots of big changes to the rankings in the first few weeks of the season as we accumulate more information and get a better feel for all the teams, but the entire landscape should be taking a more solid form by the time December rolls around.

A few new teams will be added to the “Championship Contenders” list in the next edition, and my apologies go out to St. Johns, who I’ve now removed from the overrated list after getting another look at them. They’re extremely tough and physical, and while they might not be the 5th best team in the country, they’re probably not as far away from that ranking as I originally thought. We’ll take a more in-depth look at a few other teams in the next article, but for now we’ll highlight a few season-long wagers worth considering based on what we’ve seen so far.

 

Worth a Wager

Illinois (+700) to win the Big Ten

Arizona (+800) to win the Big 12

Arkansas (+475) to win the SEC and (+2000) to win the National Championship

Longshots (probably won’t do it, but the odds are enticing!)

Baylor (+2500) to win the Big 12

Washington (+4000) to win the Big Ten

Wake Forest (+10000) to win the ACC

 

I like to sprinkle in a few of these season-long investments as the season unfolds, and these are the ones that seem to be offering the best value at this point. We’ll now stick our neck out again with another “Bet the House” segment, but this time we’re gonna back a team we have much more confidence in, the #1 team in our poll, the Arkansas Razorbacks.

 

Bet the House

Arkansas +3.5 @ Michigan St

The first edition of “Bet the House” didn’t go too well, and if this one doesn’t succeed I’ll be scrapping this segment and quitting betting on individual games altogether. Bethune-Cookman fell flat after an impressive first game, and Miami really stepped it up from their lackluster opening performance, showing once again how dangerous it is to assume that teams will look even remotely similar from game to game. Miami was extremely impressive defensively while putting up over 100 points, while Bethune-Cookman looked too small, a step slow, and emotionally-drained from their overtime loss a few days ago. That one was ugly.

We may have gotten a little carried away backing a WAY under-the-radar team too soon, so this time we’ll put our biggest wager on what we believe to be the best team in college basketball. With Arkansas holding down the top spot in our poll, and Michigan State failing to crack the top 32, I’m going with the Razorbacks to go into a tough environment and knock off the Spartans.

Typically the Breslin Center in East Lansing is one of the most difficult places to play, especially for a team led by freshmen, but this Arkansas squad is different. They’re just too talented and too deep to lose this game, and as 3.5-point underdogs, this one feels like an absolute lock.

1st "Bet the House" Segment, with Updated Team and Player Rankings

Bet the House

Bethune-Cookman +16.5 @ Miami

Bethune-Cookman is far from a household name in college basketball, but their relative obscurity is exactly why the Wildcats will be one of the biggest surprises this season. They’re coming off a tough overtime loss on the road at Auburn, but Auburn is a very good team, and Bethune-Cookman gave them all they could handle in a tough environment and easily could’ve won the game.

While Auburn has been a top program for years with more than their fair share of elite players, Bethune-Cookman might have had the best player on the floor. Arterio Morris, a former 5-star recruit whose college career hasn’t quite gone to plan, actually came off the bench and nearly led his team to victory. Morris started his college career at Texas, then transferred to Kansas, where he was dismissed from the team before he even played a game after he was charged with sexual assault in September of 2023. Those charges were dropped around 6 months later, and after going the JUCO route for a year, Morris is back in Division I at Bethune-Cookman.

While Arterio Morris represents a level of talent that Bethune-Cookman isn’t used to having, his supporting cast is actually a lot better than anyone would think. The Wildcats are quick and athletic and play with great intensity and effort. They aren’t the biggest team, but they make up for it in toughness, physicality, and aggression on both ends of the floor.

Their opponent, the Miami Hurricanes, are used to having talent, but this year’s team is a complete overhaul from last season. Their roster is made up of all new players, and they’re led by a 1st year coach as well. It will likely take a while for Miami to gel together, and after watching both teams in their first games, this spread looks way too high. Bethune-Cookman has a great chance to not only cover this spread, but potentially even pull off the upset on the road. Keep an eye on Bethune-Cookman, they will likely be one of the teams to bet on this season.

 

2025-2026 College Basketball Preview

 Championship Contenders

Arkansas

John Calipari absolutely nailed it this year on the recruiting trail, bringing in 2 of the best freshmen in the country in Darius Acuff Jr. and Meleek Thomas, while also adding one of the biggest impact transfers in former Florida State big man Malique Ewin. Thomas and Acuff Jr. will form what might be the best backcourt in college basketball, and they’ll be joined by a deep supporting cast more than capable of cutting down the nets in Indianapolis this season.

The Razorbacks already appear to be in post-season form, and I’m looking for them to start the year quickly and explosively to reach their December 20th matchup against Houston still undefeated. That would mean they’d already collected a big statement-win on the road at Michigan State, as well as victories over three top-11 teams in Duke, Louisville, and Texas Tech.

If Arkansas can avoid any major injuries and Coach Calipari can manage his lineups correctly, this team has a great chance to deliver the 2nd National Championship for both program and coach. This is one of the biggest and most athletic rosters in the country, and the young freshmen guards bring the energy and leadership that may have been lacking from last year’s team.

Florida

While everyone is talking about how good Florida’s frontcourt is, and rightly so, it seems like the rest of the team is equally as motivated to win back-to-back championships this season. Thomas Haugh looks like one of the best players in the country, and although I’ve only gotten a brief glimpse of this team in practice, they looked much more skilled and organized than I expected. An exhibition win against a very good Illinois team is impressive, and I look for the Gators to roll into a December 9th matchup with UCONN undefeated. That would mean they got early wins against Arizona and on the road at Duke, and I expect them to battle Arkansas for supremacy in a stacked SEC conference.

Gonzaga

Gonzaga is coming off a couple of down years according to their lofty standards, but this might be the year that Mark Few gets back to another Final 4. Tyon Grant-Foster has been cleared to play and makes them a much more explosive team, giving them the elite athleticism they haven’t traditionally had. The veteran frontcourt of Braden Huff and Graham Ike should dominate down low, and they’re surrounded by a deep and versatile group of guards with great size and a good mix of shooters and slashers. This team has the talent to compete for a National Championship this season, and it looks like their offense is already clicking on all cylinders before the season officially begins.

 

Houston

Houston looks about the same as they usually do. They’re extremely tough defensively once again, and although they lost a couple very important pieces from last year’s runner-up team in LJ Cryer and J’Wan Roberts, they reloaded with elite freshmen Kingston Flemings and Chris Cenac Jr. Flemings is a complete pest with a relentless motor on both ends of the floor, and Chris Cenac Jr gives them a more skilled big than has been typical in the past. Houston will once again be extremely tough to beat, but their depth is a question mark, and they’ll need a few of the other freshmen to contribute if they hope to win it all come April.

UCONN

Danny Hurley will have his team back in the championship conversation this season after deciding to give someone else a chance last year. The Huskies are a veteran squad with tons of big-game experience, and the additions of Georgia transfer Silas Demery Jr. and freshman Eric Reibe will make this UCONN team very difficult to defend. Solo Ball and Alex Karaban return to make another run at it, with Karaban looking to close out his collegiate career with 3 National Titles.

Illinois

Coach Brad Underwood looks to have built a recruiting pipeline to Serbia and Croatia. Freshman David Mirkovic might be the best player in college basketball that almost no one has heard of, while transfer Andrej Stojakovic, son of NBA All-Star Peja Stojakovic, will also bring his complete offensive game to Champaign. They’ll join 2 centers with the last name Ivisic, Tomislav who returns from last year and will almost certainly play in the NBA, while Zvonimir transfers in from Arkansas to join his 3rd team in 3 years.

Kylan Boswell and Ben Humrichous return in the backcourt to give this team solid continuity, balance, leadership, and big-game experience. Is this the year Coach Underwood finally takes his team to a Final 4?

Under the Radar Sleepers

Washington

Washington has one of the most skilled centers I’ve seen come in to college basketball in awhile, Hannes Steinbach. He nearly always makes the right play, and there’s no doubt he’ll make the rest of the team much better if they play through him. Fellow freshman JJ Mandaquit is a great leader and competitor who also makes really good decisions, and the Huskies offense has operated with great ball-movement at times with him at the helm.

The freshman are joined by talented USC transfers Desmond Claude and Wesley Yates III, as well as Bryson Tucker from Indiana and Jacob Ognacevic from Lipscomb. Coach Danny Sprinkle has done a masterful job at both Montana St. and Utah St., and I look for him to turn things around in a big way at Washington this season.

Creighton

Creighton has been a consistently good program under Coach Greg McDermott since he arrived in 2010, and this year’s team is probably a little underappreciated at #23 in the preseason polls. Despite losing their top 3 players from last season, including Ryan Kalkbrenner who is now the starting center for the Charlotte Hornets, it looks like Jasen Green and transfer Austin Swartz are ready to step up and take their place.

The Blue Jays are a great passing team with shooters all over the floor. Their offense is already operating with free-flowing movement that creates open shots for everyone, so this squad will likely be ahead of most other teams on that end of the floor to start the season.

 

Most Overrated

Purdue

It’s a little confusing that Purdue is the preseason #1. I get it that they’re returning the core of the team, but they lack the athleticism of other top teams, and while they’re certainly tough to beat, especially at home, I don’t even have them in the top 10 to start the year.

St. John’s

St. John’s lost a lot from a team that earned a 2-seed and nearly made the Elite 8 last season. They’re expecting big contributions from a lot of new faces, but it could take them awhile to gel together. Right now they look pretty sloppy and out of sync, so it could take this group a little longer to find their identity and play to their potential.

Top Players to Watch

NBA Draft Rankings by Position

 

2025 NBA Draft's Most Underrated

 Ryan Kalkbrenner, Creighton

Most mock drafts predict Ryan Kalkbrenner to be a late-1st or early 2nd-round pick, but he might just be the best center in this draft. While his lack of elite athleticism is likely keeping him under the radar, he’s much more athletic than he might seem at first glance, and his subtle ability to read the game and nearly always make the right play seems to be going unnoticed. Kalkbrenner’s feel for how the defense is reacting to him and his teammates is about as good as it gets, and he’s nearly always instinctively in the right position on both ends of the floor.

While it seems most projections put a heavy emphasis on “potential,” Kalkbrenner is ready to step in and play right away. He has great size and strength, and plays with a toughness and physicality that’s hard to deal with. He’s always focused and determined to impact the game, with his aggression, activity, and effort never being a question.

Offensively Kalkbrenner can do it all. He runs the court extremely well, often beating his man down the court for easy baskets or setting up massive advantages to seal his opponent off with his positioning. He’s extremely dangerous in the post with great footwork, a plethora of post moves, and the decision-making ability to find a teammate when the time is right. He’s a great finisher around the basket, but he also has a great jumpshot with the ability to step out and hit the 3.

Kalkbrenner sets great screens and threatens the defense immediately after. He’s a constant lob threat when diving toward the rim, but his deadly shooting ability makes the defense pick its own poison when deciding how to guard him. His high IQ and ability to adjust to whatever the opponent is doing is extremely undervalued, as this is what ultimately wins games. Kalkbrenner has tons of big-time experience on the game’s biggest stages, and his Creighton teams had lots of success throughout his time there.

While I haven’t heard much talk about his defense, the tape shows a guy who’s always competing and in the right position. He defends the rim at a high level, and he’s always there to help if a teammate gets beat. Kalkbrenner isn’t an elite rebounder, but he boxes out and typically seals his man off from getting the rebound himself. His game reminds me of Brook Lopez, and it won’t be long before he becomes one of the better centers in the league.

 

Danny Wolf, Michigan

Danny Wolf is projected to go in the mid-to-late 1st or early 2nd-round, but his unique skill-set at 7’0” and 250 pounds should have him ranked much higher. His ability to handle and pass like a point guard evokes Jokic comparisons, and while he’s not quite as strong or as dominant a rebounder as the Nuggets superstar, he’s quicker and runs the floor even better.

Offensively Wolf does everything extremely well. His expert ball-handling and tremendous footwork make him an extremely difficult matchup, as he’s capable of driving to the basket and creating for himself or his teammates. He’s a great finisher around the basket, even through contact, and he always fights hard for position. He’s also a very good shooter with deep 3-point range.

He’s not thought of as a guy who blocks a lot of shots, but he’s nearly always in the right position, and he actually defends the rim extremely well. Wolf is a very intelligent player who has won everywhere he went, a trend I expect to continue at the NBA level. He’s already better than most centers in the league and is ready to step in and play right away.

Rocco Zikarsky, Australia

Although the sample size is small, I love what I’ve seen from Rocco Zikarsky. His tremendous size and length make him extremely tough to deal with around the basket, and while he’s still pretty thin, he plays with a toughness and aggression that can’t be taught. Still only 18 years old, Zikarsky has tons of room to continue growing into his 7’3” frame.

Zikarsky is actually a phenomenal athlete. He’s an absolute terror on the offensive boards, as he reads the ball extremely well off the rim and often dominates games with put-back dunks. He’s an aggressive finisher that looks to throw it down every time he touches it, and he does a great job moving to open space to create passing lanes.

Zikarsky sets great screens and rolls hard to the basket, where he’s almost impossible to stop. He’s a huge alley-oop threat, but he’s also shown a nice touch around the basket with floaters and layups. He gets great position and is patient with his footwork, and he’s already shown nice moves in the post. He’s even shown the ability to knock down 3’s.

Rocco is also really good defensively. He moves his feet extremely well to stay in front of opponents on the perimeter, and he defends the rim at a high level. He’s still just scratching the surface of what he can become, but he’s good enough to contribute right away. His competitive toughness makes me believe that he will continue improving and getting stronger, and I expect him to eventually develop into one of the better centers in the league.

Adou Thiero, Arkansas

Adou Thiero has the size, length, and athleticism to develop into a dominant NBA player. He plays with toughness and relentless aggression on both ends, making life difficult on any opponent he faces. His confident mentality will serve him well at the next level.

Thiero is a good ball-handler, and he uses his strength and physicality to get where he wants to go. He aggressively attacks the rim and finishes through contact, often with highlight reel dunks over and through defenders. He’s got a nice mid-range game and good touch around the basket, and he’s a very good passer who finds the open man, often with nice hit-ahead passes to start the break. While his 3-point shooting percentage wasn’t very good, his shot looks nice and I expect him to figure it out and continue improving throughout his career.

Thiero is really tough defensively as well. His elite physical attributes and athleticism give him the versatile tools to matchup up with almost anyone, and he always plays with great energy and effort. He reminds me a lot of OG Anunoby, and if he turns out anything like that he will be a steal in this draft.

2025 NBA Draft Rankings: Final Big Board

 

NCAA Tournament Bracket Cheatsheet, West Region

 West Region

(1) Florida

Florida’s dominant win at Auburn showed that they’re capable of beating anyone anywhere. Another huge win at Alabama put everyone on notice that the Gators were now among the national championship favorites. Their total domination of the SEC tournament, featuring probably the most stacked conference in the history of college basketball, makes the Gators THE championship favorite coming into the NCAA tournament.

They have the size, depth, and versatility to make life difficult for their opponents on both ends of the court. They can put lineups on the floor where all five guys can pass, dribble, and shoot, allowing them to space out and break down the defense in a variety of ways. Having multiple big guys who can pass and knock down an open shot makes them extremely difficult to guard. Combine that with a bunch of players who move well without the ball and unselfishly look to find the open man, and you have a free-flowing offense that’s beautiful to watch.

Florida has a bunch of good ball-handlers, as well as multiple guys who aren’t afraid to take and make a big shot. Their depth is a huge asset, giving them the size, strength, quickness, and toughness to match up well with any different kind of lineup. Their guards apply pressure defensively while breaking it offensively, and all these things combined make Florida the deepest and most versatile team in college basketball.

While they’ve had some lapses at times and let some big leads slip away this season, Florida has really stepped it up defensively in recent games and has kept their foot on the gas pedal. They’re completely healthy now, and they’ve got a long list of players with futures in the NBA. The Gators have the best chance to cut down the nets in San Antonio.

 

(16) Norfolk St

Norfolk St has a great basketball program and is seemingly always in the conversation to make the NCAA tournament. This year is no different, and they actually have a very talented team with the size, length, quickness, and athleticism to cause problems for a lot of opponents. Unfortunately for the Spartans, they drew the worst possible matchup in this entire tournament.

Norfolk St is led by their guards Brian Moore Jr and Christian Ings. It’s unfortunate that this team wasn’t given a little more respect by the committee, because under different circumstances, I’d say they might have a chance to pull a major upset. Florida is just too good.

 

(8) UCONN

 

UCONN is obviously well-coached and has a wealth of NCAA tournament experience, but this team isn’t quite at the level of the last 2. The Huskies still have a lot of ways to hurt their opponents with a well-rounded offensive group, but their defense is nowhere close to as good as the ones they had during their national championship runs. UCONN should have a good size and depth advantage against Oklahoma, but with Florida lurking in round 2 the Huskies are unlikely to win more than one game in this tournament.

(9) Oklahoma

 

Oklahoma is led by star freshman Jeremiah Fears, who is likely to be a lottery pick in this year’s NBA Draft, but unfortunately he doesn’t have a lot of help. Senior Jalon Moore has been great as well, but he’s been the only other consistent offensive contributor, and the Sooners will need at least 1 or 2 other players to step up if they have any hope of beating UCONN. UCONN’s depth and experience definitely gives them the edge in this matchup, but with a superstar like Fears, Oklahoma definitely has a chance. If the Sooners are able to get by UCONN, they’ll likely get blown out by Florida.

(4) Maryland

 

Maryland has one of the most talented starting 5’s of any team in the country. Derik Queen might be the best big man in college basketball, and Julian Reese joins him in the front-court to make life difficult on opponents around the basket and on the boards. Guards Ja’Kobe Gillespie, Selton Miguel, and Rodney Rice are all good shooters who can also get to the rim, but the Terps haven’t had much of a contribution from their bench all season long.

While Maryland is very talented offensively as has scorers at all 5 positions, their defensive effort has left a lot to be desired. They’ve lacked the toughness and physicality they need on that end of the floor, and they’ll have to play much better defense than they have all season if they want to make a deep run in this tournament. They’ve shown they have the ability to do it, but they have to be more consistent, and they need to find someone off the bench that can help them out a little bit. The Terrapins are certainly capable of making the Sweet 16, but they’re unlikely to have a chance to beat Florida, and it’s certainly a possibility that they lose to Grand Canyon in round 1, or to Memphis or Colorado St in round 2.

 

(13) Grand Canyon

 

I really like this Grand Canyon squad, but I don’t love the matchup. The Lopes knocked off St. Mary’s in the first round last season before losing a competitive game to Alabama, but this contest against Maryland is more like last year’s Alabama game than the one against St. Mary’s.

Grand Canyon has great length and several explosively athletic players, including last year’s tournament hero Tyon Grant-Foster. This team is tough, physical, and aggressive on both ends of the floor, and they certainly have the talent to win multiple games in this tournament. It’s a little unlucky to draw one of the biggest and best frontcourts in college basketball in round 1, but Grand Canyon has the length and toughness to battle Maryland’s talented bigs down low. While I definitely think Grand Canyon has a chance in this game, it’s more likely that they lose a close one.

(5) Memphis

 

Memphis has great size, length, and athleticism. They have one of the nation’s best scorers in PJ Haggerty, but unfortunately it looks like his backcourt teammate Tyrese Hunter is going to miss this game with an injury. This has led the bookies to make 12th-seeded Colorado St the favorite, which I think might be a mistake.

Colorado St lacks a true inside presence down low, which should have Memphis big man Dain Dainja licking his chops. The Tigers should look to pound the ball inside to Dainja as often as possible, as the Rams will likely have no answer for him.

This Memphis team can compete with anyone when they play their best, but they’ve had the tendency to get sloppy and lose focus a little too often. Their intensity can definitely waver at times, so they’ll need to be locked in to take care of business in this one. If they get by Colorado St they’ll have a decent chance to win their next game against Maryland or Grand Canyon, but the run will likely end there.

 

(12) Colorado St

 

Colorado St shares the ball extremely well and has great shooters all over the floor. Their excellent ball movement results in lots of high-quality looks from 3-point range, and they’ve been knocking them down at a high rate all season long.

The Rams are lead by future pro Nique Clifford, who’s been dominating his opponents in nearly every facet of the game. He’ll undoubtedly be a tough matchup for Memphis, but the Tigers have the size and length to at least disrupt him a little and keep him from having his way around the basket.

I really like how scrappy this team is, and they play a beautiful brand of high-IQ basketball that’s fun to watch. Unfortunately they lack the same kind of size and athleticism that Memphis possesses, and it will be tough for Colorado St to overcome their physical disadvantages.

 

(3) Texas Tech

 

This Texas Tech squad is pretty banged up. 2 of their top 3 scorers, Derrion Williams and Chance McMillian, missed their last game against Arizona and have been in and out of the lineup with injuries, but several players have stepped up in their absence. Freshman Christian Anderson looks more than comfortable taking on a bigger role, while Kevin Overton, Kerwin Walton, and Elijah Hawkins have also made some important contributions.

JT Toppin has been dominant inside all season, and while he’s not the biggest player, he’s consistently attacked the basket with aggression and ferocity. He’ll be up against a much bigger opponent in UNCW’s Harlan Obioha, but Toppin will certainly have the quickness and mobility advantage.

Despite the injuries continuing to mount, Texas Tech just keeps on competing and winning. They’re tough, physical, and play bigger than their size, but they’ll definitely need a few role players to step up if Williams and McMillian can’t suit up. I really like this Red Raiders team, and I look for them to still get through to the Sweet 16 even with the injuries.

 

(14) UNCW

 

UNCW is definitely the best 14-seed in the tournament, but unfortunately they drew one of the 2 best 3-seeds. The Seahawks are led by their talented backcourt, guards Donovan Newby and Bo Montgomery. They’re both tough, strong, and can get to the rim as well as knock down shots from the outside.

UNCW has the size and length to cause problems for Texas Tech. They play an aggressive brand of defense that makes life difficult on any opponent, with the versatility to cause matchup problems on both ends of the floor. They definitely have a chance to pull an upset or 2, and if you’re looking to back a 14-seed to beat a 3-seed, this is the one to pick.

 

(6) Missouri

 

Missouri has been consistently overlooked this season, so it’s no surprise that many of the TV personalities and talking heads of the sports-world are picking Drake to upset the Tigers. While Drake comes in winning 7 straight games and 18 of their last 19, none of those wins has come against a team with the size, speed, and athleticism of Missouri.

The Tigers play extremely tough, physical, and aggressive defense. They give relentless effort on both ends of the floor, and I expect their length and explosive athleticism to cause major problems for Drake.

Coach Dennis Gates has done a great job with this team. Missouri was 8-24 last year and lost all 18 games in conference play, but this season they finished 22-11 and 10-8 in the toughest conference in the country. This team lacks a true star, which has hurt them on several occasions when trying to close out tight games, but they know their identity and they always play extremely hard. Missouri is a dangerous team more than capable of reaching the Sweet 16.

 

(11) Drake

 

I love Drake’s point guard Bennett Stirtz, but his team will be at a significant size, speed, and athleticism disadvantage against Missouri. It will be extremely important for Drake to slow this game down and control the tempo, keeping it from turning into a track meet and limiting Missouri’s transition opportunities. If Drake can make this a half-court contest they’ve certainly got a chance, but that will be much easier said than done. I think Missouri likely wins and sends Drake home with another 1^st round loss.

 

(7) Kansas

 

Calling Kansas an experienced team is a massive understatement. Their entire roster has seemingly been playing college basketball for 10+ seasons, to the point where they actually seem to be getting too old to play at this level. This Jayhawks squad hasn’t had the success we’re used to seeing from most Kansas teams, and the main problem has been the lack of consistency from the wings.

However, the Jayhawks still have great size and play a tough and aggressive brand of basketball, and I think their experience will help them get past Arkansas in round 1. Their run will likely end in round 2, where they’ll almost certainly face an extremely tough St. John’s team.

 

(10) Arkansas

 

Despite having a roster loaded with talent, Arkansas just hasn’t been able to put it together this season. Several important injuries have made things difficult, but the Razorbacks just haven’t played very smart basketball and have been wildly inconsistent all season long.

It appears that Adou Thiero, who has been their best player for most of the year, will miss at least this first game against Kansas, but Arkansas will get Boogie Fland back after missing the last 2 months with an injury. This team is obviously extremely talented, and they’ve got the size, length, and athleticism to match up with anyone in the country, but I just don’t trust them to play to their potential.  I’m going with Kansas.

 

(2) St. John’s

 

St. John’s has been one of the most impressive teams in the country this season. They’ve got one of the best backcourts in college basketball with RJ Luis and Kadary Richmond, along with one of the most versatile big men in Zuby Ejiofor down low. They’re joined by a quick and athletic supporting cast that helped them dominate the Big East, easily winning both the regular season and conference tournament titles.

The Red Storm play an incredibly tough and physical brand of defense, which holds opponents in check until they can heat up offensively and reel off a big run. This has helped them weather the cold spells they can sometimes experience on the offensive end, which usually happen when they temporarily lose focus and get a little sloppy. These mental lapses make it hard for me to fully trust them against the nation’s best teams, but you don’t win 9 straight games and 19 out of 20 without doing a lot of things right. I expect St. John’s to reach the Elite 8, where I think they’ll run into a Florida team that is just playing better than everyone at the moment.

(15) Omaha

 

I really like Marquel Sutton and JJ White, but Omaha lacks the size, length, and athleticism to knock off St. John’s. While the Mavericks have been pretty good offensively, their defense hasn’t been very good, and they’ve really struggled to rebound. This will be a problem against a very good St. John’s team that crashes the glass and flies around for loose balls, so I fully expect St. John’s to take care of business in this one.

2025 NCAA Tournament Bracket Cheatsheet, South Region

It’s once again time for the 2025 NCAA Basketball Tournament Cheatsheet! We’ll go through the entire bracket region by region, projecting the most likely outcomes for every team in the tournament with an in-depth look at each first-round matchup.

Last year there was an overwhelming favorite in UCONN, and they steamrolled their way to a pretty easy National Championship. This year there are probably 7 teams with a realistic chance to cut down the nets in San Antonio, but I believe Florida and Duke are slightly above the rest of the field. We’ll start with the South Region.

 

South Region

(1) Auburn

Auburn is the top seed and overwhelming favorite to reach the final 4, but there are certainly a few potential roadblocks in their way. The Tigers have one of the nation’s best defenses, pressuring opponents with relentless aggression and effort. They have great size, length, and athleticism at every position, and they’re led by Player of the Year candidate Johni Broome.

Broome is a beast inside and on the boards, but he also has the ability to step outside and knock down the 3. While this Auburn team has plenty of offensive weapons, they can still get disjointed and go cold for stretches of time. They don’t always play intelligent basketball on the offensive end, and this could end up costing them against the very best teams late in the tournament. One reckless, turnover-prone game could spell the end, and while I still expect Auburn to win the South region and reach the Final Four, I think their run is likely to end there against SEC rival Florida.

The Tigers definitely have a chance to win the National Championship this season, but Coach Bruce Pearl’s playing time and lineup decisions could be the difference between potentially winning it all and coming up a little bit short. His decision to keep Tahaad Pettiford on the bench late against Duke cost them the game, and while I understand it’s a delicate balance when a veteran player like Denver Jones has been there for a while and has the experience, Pettiford is a potential NBA all-star and has to be in there for the majority of any big game. He’s one of the most underrated players in the country, and not playing him enough could be the thing that costs Auburn the title this season. Their offense just operates differently when he’s in there, as his ability to break down the defense and find the open man, along with his propensity to knock down big shots in clutch moments, takes their efficiency to another level. While there’s almost no chance they lose their first-round game, their path gets a lot tougher from there on.

 

(16) Alabama St

 

Alabama St won their conference tournament as the 5-seed, squeaking by every game on their way to a tournament berth, then won their first four game on a crazy last-second full-court miracle play. They have good size, length, and athleticism, with lightning-quick ball-handlers who can break down the defense. However, they haven’t been a very good outside shooting team this season, and most of their guys are pretty thin and are likely to get overpowered by an extremely strong and physical Auburn team.

 

(8) Louisville

 

Louisville is one of the most improved programs in the country this year, going from 8 wins a year ago to 27 this season. The Cardinals are a well-rounded team full of veteran players. They’ve got great size, length, and athleticism, and they share the ball offensively while playing very good defense.

Louisville is led by impact transfers Terrence Edwards Jr, Chucky Hepburn, and J’Vonne Hadley. All 3 have lots of big-game experience from previous schools, and while they’ve only spent one year playing together, their chemistry was great from day one. With Hepburn coming up clutch in the big moments, Edwards pacing the team in scoring, and Hadley doing all the dirty work, Louisville certainly has a chance to make a deep run. It won’t be easy though, as they’ve got a difficult first-round matchup in Creighton, with a potential 2^nd round matchup with Auburn if they can get by the Bluejays.

 

 

(9) Creighton

 

Creighton reached the Sweet 16 last year, losing a close game to Tennessee. They return center Ryan Kalkbrenner and point guard Steven Ashworth from that squad, but the losses of Trey Alexander and Baylor Scheierman to the NBA make this a far less experienced team.

The Bluejays have great size and are extremely tough and competitive, but the loss of Pop Isaacs to injury earlier in the season really hurt their depth. Some of their role players really need to step up for Creighton to make a deep run this year, with the 2 most important players being Jamiya Neal and Jasen Green. They’re both athletic wings capable of big offensive performances, and their contributions will likely be the deciding factor in how far this team can go. I give Louisville a slight edge in this first-round matchup, but that’s by no means a guarantee as both teams certainly have a chance in this one.

 

(4) Texas A&M

 

Texas A&M played an epic second-round game with Houston last season, nearly pulling off the upset before ultimately falling in overtime. The majority of that core returned this season, and with the additions of Zhuric Phelps and Pharrel Payne the Aggies appear to be even better this year.

They’ve got great size, length, and athleticism, and they play with an aggressive toughness and physicality that’s really difficult to match. While their decision-making and outside shooting has been questionable at times, the Aggies always put relentless pressure on their opponents on both ends of the floor and will be a tough team to knock out of this tournament.

They should have no trouble winning their opening round matchup, and they already have a win against top-seeded Auburn just 2 weeks ago, so Texas A&M is certainly capable of making a deep run. However, they could potentially have a tough 2^nd round matchup in Michigan, and I think a Sweet 16 appearance is probably the most realistic expectation for the Aggies this season.

 

(13) Yale

 

The Ivy League representative has been extremely tough in the NCAA tournament over the years, pulling several major first-round upsets, including Yale’s win over Auburn last season. This will undoubtedly make Yale a popular upset pick this year, and while it’s certainly a possibility, the matchup is not ideal.

Yale is a smart team that moves the ball and shoots it well from the perimeter. They’re led by John Poulakidas, Nick Townsend, and Bez Mbeng, all great shooters, but their lack of an inside scoring threat and inferior athleticism could be an issue against a bigger Texas A&M squad.

Yale came up big late to win the conference tournament over Cornell, but they’ll have to play much better if they want to knock off the Aggies. If somehow they are able to get by Texas A&M, they’ll likely draw another bad matchup against a Michigan team with great size inside.

 

(5) Michigan

 

I don’t fully trust this Michigan team, but it’s tough to dispute the fact that they’re playing some pretty good basketball right now.  They just won the Big Ten conference tournament, and they’ve got one of the biggest front-courts in college basketball.

Danny Wolf and Vladislav Goldin are imposing figures inside, and both have the size and skill to dominate in their own way. Danny Wolf is a point guard in a center’s body, while Goldin is a more traditional big in the post. The question mark with this team is the guard play and the defense.

Auburn transfer Tre Donaldson has had a good season, leading the way with his toughness and aggression. The role-playing guards on the perimeter will likely decide how far this team can go, and my eye will be on freshman L.J. Cason. He hasn’t played a lot of minutes this season, but I believe he has an NBA future, and if Michigan is going to make a deep run, I look for him to be the x-factor.

Michigan has drawn a great first-round matchup in UC San Diego, a team they should absolutely dominate. The road will get much harder in round 2 with a possible matchup against Texas A&M, a team whose toughness and physicality could be an issue for this Wolverine team.

(12) UC San Diego

 

UC San Diego is a great passing team with some good shooters, but they’re small and not very athletic, 2 things that could be a huge problem against a Michigan team with great size inside. A team that plays below the rim will have a very difficult time grabbing rebounds and scoring around the basket against Michigan, and unfortunately for UC San Diego, they just don’t have anyone big enough to contend with Michigan’s twin towers inside.

The spread is surprisingly set at only 2.5 points in this 5-12 matchup, but in my view Michigan should be a much bigger favorite. UC San Diego just doesn’t have the size, length, or speed to threaten Michigan, and I’d be shocked if the Tritons end up pulling off the upset. This seems more like a great betting opportunity to go with the Wolverines.

 

(3) Iowa St

 

Iowa St is an extremely tough team, but injuries are threatening to derail what has been a really good season. Iowa St reached the Sweet 16 last year, where they lost a tight game to Illinois, and they returned the core from that team to make another run at it this year. Unfortunately 2 of their leaders have been banged up late in the season.

2^nd-leading scorer Keshon Gilbert has already been ruled out for the season, and point guard Tamin Lipsey appears ready to give it a go despite missing their last game against BYU. This team is extremely tough when healthy, but there’s no doubt that these injuries will play a massive role. The supporting cast will need to step up in a big way for Iowa St to duplicate their success from last season, but the good news is they received a very favorable draw from the committee.

Iowa St draws Lipscomb in round 1, a smaller team that can really shoot it but lacks the elite speed and athleticism that could threaten the Cyclones. This section of the draw is the best opportunity to break through to an Elite 8, and while I think it’s probably more likely that Michigan St, Marquette, Ole Miss, or UNC will be the team that gets there, Iowa St could certainly be the team that emerges as well.

 

(14) Lipscomb

 

Lipscomb is absolutely deadly from 3-point range, giving them a shooter’s chance to pull off a few upsets. They play with great effort and intensity on both ends of the floor, but they’re undersized and not the quickest or most athletic team. They do pass the ball extremely well and play with a craftiness that can throw teams off, and with the way they shoot it from outside, they’re certainly capable of advancing in this section of the bracket.

Lipscomb plays below the rim and will likely have a tough time rebounding, but fortunately for them they’ve drawn what is probably the smallest section of the draw in the entire tournament. Despite this, I still think Lipscomb is unlikely to beat Iowa St.

 

(6) Ole Miss

 

Ole Miss is a well-rounded and tough defensive team. While they’re a little undersized, they make up for it with quickness, aggression, and physicality. Their lack of a true big man would normally be a big problem, but luckily this part of the bracket is void of teams with great size inside.

The door is open for a deep run to the Elite 8, and Ole Miss is one of the teams with a shot at it. The matchup with UNC is a much more difficult one than it might have been just a few weeks ago, but if Ole Miss is able to advance to play a banged-up Iowa St squad, they’d be in a favorable situation to move on to the Sweet 16. Truly anything could happen in this section of the bracket.

(11) UNC

 

North Carolina has been the focal point of criticism toward the NCAA tournament committee, as it seems that most everyone thinks the Tar Heels didn’t deserve to be included. I actually think the committee did the best job in recent memory this season, and it’s not just because I’m a UNC alum. The Tar Heels had a pretty rough first half of the season, but they’re playing their best basketball right now, and they’re certainly one of the best 68 teams in the country.

Being literally the last team in the tournament should give the Tar Heels something to prove, and judging by their performance against San Diego St, it definitely lit a fire under them. While UNC is uncharacteristically small this year and has shown a disappointing lack of problem solving when it comes to lineup changes and other strategic adjustments, the Tar Heels have landed in the most wide open section of the bracket, giving them the opportunity to make a deep run as far as the Elite 8. Carolina certainly has the talent and guard play to win a few games in this tournament, but they’re also more than capable of falling to Ole Miss in the first round.

 

(7) Marquette

 

Marquette returns a big part of the group from their Sweet 16 run last season, but much like the rest of the teams in this section of the bracket, they lack a true inside presence. They do have great guards led by senior Kam Jones, and he’s the kind of player who can capitalize on this opportunity to break through to an Elite 8.

Marquette is very good defensively and plays with toughness, aggression, and physicality on both ends of the floor. They’ve got some good slashers and guys who can knock down open threes, but they’ll likely need Kam Jones to carry them and score 20+ every game if they hope to advance deep into this tournament. He’s certainly capable of doing that, but he’ll also need some big contributions from a few of the role players if the Golden Eagles hope to get by the likes of New Mexico and Michigan St.

I’m looking at 2 guys in particular that I believe have NBA futures, sophomore Zaide Lowery and freshman Royce Parham. Marquette should be able to get by New Mexico, but one or both of those two young players probably need to have big performances for the Golden Eagles to advance past a potential matchup with Michigan St.

(10) New Mexico

 

New Mexico is the team with the best true big man in this section of the draw. Nelly Junior Joseph has great size and strength down low, and when you pair him with Donovan Dent, one of the most exciting players to watch in this tournament, they’ve also got a chance at a deep run.

Dent can put the ball in the basket in every way possible. At just 6’2” he’s not a very big guy, but he still finds ways to get to the basket and finish around the rim. He’s a great shooter with in-the-gym range, and he’s extremely good at breaking down the defense and finding the open man.

If New Mexico is going to advance past Marquette, they’re going to need some big contributions from some of the role players. Considering they just lost to Boise St I think they’re most likely to lose to the Golden Eagles in round 1, but the Lobos are also more than capable of winning that game and even a couple more.

(2) Michigan St

 

Michigan St and Coach Tom Izzo are always extremely dangerous in the NCAA tournament, and this year is no exception. The Spartans are led by a great group of guards, and while they’ve had a great year on their way to the regular-season Big Ten title, I do think Michigan St is by far the most vulnerable 2-seed in the tournament.

Much like the rest of this section of the draw, the Spartans lack a true big man inside, but they’re tough and physical and rebound extremely well, like all Michigan St teams tend to do. While the effort is always there, the offense can be inconsistent at times, and their lack of a real offensive threat down low could end up being a problem. This team is certainly capable of making a run to the Elite 8, but while I think they are likely to get past Bryant, potential trouble lurks with a possible matchup with Marquette in round 2.

(15) Bryant

 

Bryant is actually one of the bigger teams in the tournament, with all 5 starters coming in at 6’6” or taller. They have tremendous size and length, including 6’11” center Keyshawn Mitchell inside, and if you’re looking to pick a 15-seed to knock off a 2-seed, Bryant is the one to choose.

While their size and skill was very impressive in a bunch of blowout wins to win their conference tournament, the other teams in their conference don’t compare to the toughness and physicality of Michigan St. Bryant will have to bring much more intensity, physicality, and toughness than they’ve shown on the defensive end of the floor if they hope to knock off the Spartans.

Bryant hung with St. John’s for a while and didn’t look overwhelmed early in the season before ultimately losing by 22, but a concerning blowout loss to Grand Canyon doesn’t bode well for their upset chances against Michigan St. They were missing their leading scorer Raphael Pinzon for that one however, so maybe they should get somewhat of a pass.

The bottom line is that Bryant has a lot of talent, with the size, length, and athleticism to create problems for everyone in this section of the draw. They’ve got multiple ball-handlers, led by conference player of the year Earl Timberlake, who plays with the confidence to compete against anyone. If we’re going to see a true Cinderella team make a deep run in this tournament, I think Bryant is the most likely candidate.

link to last year's 2024 NCAA Tournament Bracket Cheatsheet

NCAA Tournament Cheat Sheet — March Madness Betting 2024